A very interesting thread.
I especially appreciated the posts with links to data. And other people read Foreign Affairs!! And quote Churchill!
The future is unpredictable. In some ways, the short-term future is even less predictable than the long-term.
What the Chinese will do tomorrow, or next year, or within the next five years -- what will happen to the world economy in those time spans -- or to America -- no one can say. Today is pretty much like yesterday, which was pretty much like the day before that ... so we are conditioned not to expect radical changes. But they happen. Thus the prudent man will have his canned food and AR15 in the basement, just in case.
You can't even expect rationality to rule: in his History of the Second World War, Churchill has a whole chapter on why no one expected the Japanese to voluntarily go to war with Britain and the US -- anyone who did the maths would see that it was a crazy idea. Well, their navy did the maths, but their army had had nothing but victories in China, and ignored the numbers -- and it was the army who called the shots. (Before the war, Admiral Yamamoto -- that's the name that they should give their next aircraft carrier! -- had to have a bodyguard to protect him from assassination by the army. But he was a good patriot and when called upon to work out a plan to hold off the Americans for a year, did his best, which was pretty good, but not good enough.) It was madness to go to war against the US and Britain -- especially since FDR had been goading the Japanese to do just that, so that the American people would be roused out of their isolationist torpor -- but, as Churchill concludes that chapter, madness has one advantage: surprise.
So although it's interesting to speculate about the outcome of a US/China engagement, I don't think we have any idea whether it's likely, or even what would happen. All the best plans evaporate on first contact with the enemy. All we can say is that it would be mad for China to do it -- right now.
But if we try to look ahead fifty years -- then we are on firmer ground. But only relatively speaking -- who, fifty years ago, in 1968, predicted the internet; the collapse of Communism (explicitly in Russia and her satellites, implicitly, in China and Vietnam); or the religious radicalization of a significant section of the Muslim world?
However, there are some trends which seem to me to be irreversible: the economic growth of China, and its subsequent reflection in military strength. I'm perfectly aware that their current economic model has some serious weaknesses, which are probably going to bite them in the next period: too much residual socialism, for one thing; probably too much debt; not enough people, especially of the female persuasion; and of course corruption.
Even some of their apparent strengths may be exaggerated, the way Hitler exaggerated the strengh of the Wehrmacht before WWII.
But we've got to take the Warren Buffet approach, and look at fundamentals, and project forward fifty years.
They're as smart as we are, perhaps even smarter. [Uh -oh ... has it become illegal, a hate crime, to talk about the biologically-based intelligence of ethnic groups yet? Even if I'm implying whites are dumber than others? I will confess to everything and immediately enroll in a diversity-awareness course, officer!]
Their government is not sentimental. There is no word for 'political correctness' in Mandarin. (Wait -- a Chinese friend has just told me that there
is such a phrase, whose literal translation is 'Roundeye-Suicide-Wish'. Ha ... how does that mean 'political correctness'?? Maybe they're not so smart after all, or this was translated by the guy who does all those incomprehensible 'translations' on the leaflets that come with the stuff I buy from China.) Anyway, when they've got a problem, they solve it, or try to, without worrying about hurting someone's feelings: China has several ethnic minorities, small in comparison to the Han population, but large enough to take into account. One of these minorities is Muslim, and among them, radical Islamists duly appeared. (For those interested, details
here.) Finally, the government had enough: evidently they've put about 10% of the Muslim population (the Oighurs) into 're-education camps'.
Their young intelligentsia don't hate their own country. From reports I've had from people who teach some of them, a lot of them would like to have a more liberal -- in the 'classic' sense -- China, which bodes well for the future. But ... what do you think would happen to a group of young Chinese who publically burned their country's flag? They're actually proud of China. Imagine that! Americans underestimate the strength of other peoples' national pride -- those Vietnamese kids who carried satchel charges past Claymore mines weren't fighting for the world proletarian revolution -- they were fighting for a united Vietnam. When Mao made his initial speech to the first gathering of the supporters of the Chinese revolution in 1949, he didn't say, "Another step on the path to world communism." He said, "The Chinese people have stood up!" That's why his picture can still be found everywhere in China, despite the madness of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
Their projected demographics are bad. America has a similar problem, and is solving it by via its Hispanic population. Whites in America will be a minority in fifty years. When the Democrats retake the Presidency, which of course they will at some point, the Open Borders which will follow will push the bottom of that population pyramid out even further. China won't do that. But want to bet that they'll find other ways, which preserve their tribal composition, to do the same thing? Remember, they'll be getting richer and richer.
The possible coming economic crisis will no doubt hurt them. But we're talking long term: America came out of the worst depression ever to emerge dominant in the capitalist world. Look at fundamentals. Look ahead a couple of generations.
As Heraclitus said, war is the father and king of all things. As they become wealthy, they'll buy a better and better military. If they're smart -- and they are -- they won't send it all over the world to bring Lesbian Outreach Centers to Kandahar. Let's hope they'll remain cool, and play the long game -- maybe the occasional threat to sink some carriers to assuage national pride, but that will be just for show ... hopefully.
And ...
America is vanishing. Please note that I'm not happy about this -- just the opposite. But you can't fool life.
There will still be something called 'the United States' for a long time. It will still have a formidible arsenal. But the people manning it -- and, more importantly, those in command of it -- will have been transformed. It's a great tragedy, but it won't be the end of history.
But when the equivalent of the events that galvanized previous generations of Americans to destroy slavery, fight fascism, and contain communism occurs in the future ... the American ruling elite will have been trained to despise their own homophobic, transphobic, racist, sexist, imperialist country. They will be its apologists, not its defenders.