Chiesa being a -650 favorite over Ferguson is insane

[koa pomaikai]

Wow just looked up the lines for Ferguson vs. Chiesa and Tony is a monster dog.

I expect Chiesa to win but not at this clip.

Dude was never that good and he’s 36 on a 3 fight losing skid against lesser competition, 2 via first round submission.

Tony is washed but god damn, I can’t see Chiesa justifying -650 (my opinion around -200).

What do you think?

 

[El Panteron]

I expect Chiesa to win

Yes my brother, so does everybody else, hence the odds.

 

[koa pomaikai]

Yes my brother, so does everybody else, hence the odds.

Yeah but I won’t be shocked if Ferguson pulls it off. -650 is Rousey level of favorite.

 

[JoeRowe]

Fanduel had him -530 or -520 earlier today. Good value imo, hope to be wrong

 

[NoSmilez]

Chiesa is probably going to ground Ferg and choke him. Chiesa's grappling isn't all that but it's serviceable. He does seem to have a weakness against darces though. Ferg is supposedly good at it.

 

[Thepaintbucket]

It's safe to say any fighter in the UFC with a pulse will beat Tony Ferg at this point. Tony should only be allowed to fight tiktok stars and midgets

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

Wow just looked up the lines for Ferguson vs. Chiesa and Tony is a monster dog.

I expect Chiesa to win but not at this clip.

Dude was never that good and he’s 36 on a 3 fight losing skid against lesser competition, 2 via first round submission.

Tony is washed but god damn, I can’t see Chiesa justifying -650 (my opinion around -200).

What do you think?

Luque, Brady, and Holland are "lesser competition?" All three of them are ranked welterweights.

When I think "lesser competition" these days, I think about how I'd favor even Clay Guida over Ferguson

 

[Carrotman23]

He's on a 7 fight losing streak and fighting at WW against a guy that's better then some people who've already beat Tony .

 

[koa pomaikai]

Luque, Brady, and Holland are "lesser competition?" All three of them are ranked welterweights.

When I think "lesser competition" these days, I think about how I'd favor even Clay Guida over Ferguson

Lightweight is a far superior division compared to welterweight. LW probably is the toughest division in UFC

 

[CrimsonFan]

Lightweight is a far superior division compared to welterweight. LW probably is the toughest division in UFC

So bet on it then.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

Lightweight is a far superior division compared to welterweight. LW probably is the toughest division in UFC

You easily put Nate Diaz, Bobby Green, and Paddy Pimblett over Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Kevin Holland? I mean, that's a choice

 

[Edward Henry Greb]

Who would actually pay to see Tony fight at this point?

 

[koa pomaikai]

So bet on it then.

I am, going to throw like 20 dollars on Tony via sub.

 

[koa pomaikai]

You easily put Nate Diaz, Bobby Green, and Paddy Pimblett over Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Kevin Holland? I mean, that's a choice

Skill for skill? Yes.

 

[wildchild88]

Letting Ferguson fight is inhumane.

The guys brain would look like a mouldy clump of Swiss cheese by now.

It's sick.

 

[Arm Barbarian]

El Cucuy really is just a fragment of his peak self. He has decent power in his hands, but he's slow, his timing is no longer there, and he just doesn't seem to have the fire he once had.

He's going on a record win to lose reversal.

Chiesa isn't a world beater by any means either, but he hasn't looked as shop-worn as Cucuy.

That said, I always root for Tony, and would love to see him finally get a win against big odds.

 

[CrimsonFan]

I don't think Tony is capable of winning a fight in the UFC.

What I've seen out of him is worse than just a shot fighter.. it's like brain damage or something I mean he's just ridiculously incapable of making anything happen at this point.

He's not training with reputable coaches or fighters. He isn't packing any power in his strikes, can't take a punch, can't wrestle, looks physically weak. He's been on the ground plenty during this losing streak and isn't threatening with submissions

I'm all for putting some money on a big underdog and hoping for a payout but I think I'm good on this one. I mean he's just not fighting on a level where I feel like he has any chance at all . And I never say stuff like that, I very much always think there's a chance.. but not with Tony in 2024

 

[Carrotman23]

You easily put Nate Diaz, Bobby Green, and Paddy Pimblett over Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Kevin Holland? I mean, that's a choice

Honestly I'd say Chiesa is a better fighter then older Nate Diaz and Bobby Green, strong wrestler, decent grappler. Ferguson got rag dolled by Oliveira, whose not much of a better wrestler then Chiesa (though a much better grappler obviously) and Chiesa will be heavier. Tony barely has a chance at all here.
How many times does a guy stop declining in the UFC when he's on something like a 7 fight losing streak ha

 

[Reign Supreme]

Tony hasn't won a fight in over 5 years. Odds seem appropriate.

 

[GrantB13]

We just don't know with Tony anymore. I want him to win but how do you meaningfully bounce back from this many losses? He probably can't. Maybe one win but it's probably over even in victory.