Oh God ... You're one of those people who believe Trump's trolling he's going to run for a 3rd term.
Unless JD Vance somehow screw up royally he's guaranteed to be the 2028 nominee.
As far as Newsom goes, he's been an extremely poor governor, Democrats approval ratings have been the lowest in decades, and he's alienated the extreme-left with his attempts to become more moderate this year.
His governorship alone gives Republicans alone enough ammo to shoot him down in the general election, easily. Off the top of my head... Covid-19, the wildfires in LA at the beginning of the year, and the riots against ICE a few months ago.
Enforcing immigration law & deporting illegals is now a 70/30 issue, so if Newsom - or any other Democrat - wants to be the spokesman for the 30 and Vance for the 70, that'd be awesome.
Also, did you see the Newsom-DeSantis debate last year? Complete domination for DeSantis & utter embarrassment for Newsom. DeSantis was all offense because he had the ammo to be all offense, and Newsom was all defense and his wife called an end of the debate during a commercial break.
So that's why chances are the Democrats are looking for a 2nd option.... Probably AOC since she's been giving very few interviews this year to avoid saying anything embarrassing.
As for the Vance-Newsom poll numbers you may post in response... They don't matter whatsoever.