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It's crazy that so many people think Brock would win this. They're overlooking how scared he is of heavy hitters. And either overrating his takedown abilities, or underrating Stipe's takedown abilities or Francis's TDD.
There are only a couple ways I can visualise this fight. First, and most likely, is Brock coming out timid, Francis pressuring him, landing a big shot, and ending it within 1 or 2 minutes. Second, is Francis initially taking his time a bit more, allowing Brock time to relax, and shoot; from there, Brock gets ahold of Francis, and maybe takes him down, but struggles to hold him down; they scramble, Francis lands some shots during the transition, fight is over. I just can't see Brock successfully avoiding Francis, successfully shooting, AND successfully holding Francis down while doing damage enough to end future threats.
It's a 50/50 fight on paper.
You say Brock is scared of heavy hitters, well he beat Shane Carwin. He beat Frank Mir, basically twice (yes he lost the first one on a hailmary kneebar). Beating Randy is whatever, but he was a good boxer. He beat Hunt who's a big hitter who was KOing everyone but the top tier (prime Cain, prime JDS, Werdum) at the time.
He only lost to Ubereem (with a diverticulitis) and prime Cain. He took Cain down as well, people forget that.
I think the issue is the exact opposite, Ngannou is very overrated. He's a flashy KO artist, he's good not saying he isn't...but how do you know he's improved in the grappling game? He knocked out Blaydes in like 30 seconds which showed us next to nothing, he's knocked out a washed up JDS and very washed Cain, and just KO'd Rozenstruik.
Well prior to that he lost to Lewis and was 50-44'd by Stipe. I'm not sure how much crack people are smoking trying to say he didn't get outwrestled hard by Stipe, but he did. And Lesnar is the much bigger man and better wrestler, at least shooting in open space than Stipe is.
"I just can't see Brock successfully avoiding Francis..."
Why not? It's very easy. Francis blitzes in on a straight line like he did to Rozenstruik in his last fight, Brock level changes and doubles him. The entire fight is based on: Can Ngannou fight outside and stuff a takedown then kill Lesnar with a haymaker, or is Ngannou's TDD and grappling at the level where Brock will likely take him down then smash him or sub him from sidemount. If Ngannou is down then I think he's DOWN, he's not getting up from Lesnar with his white belt level grappling especially if he isn't right on the cage.