Boxing Discussion VIII

[Brockstar]

Dubois vs Parker - I like Fight Ends in Rounds 1-6 at +300. Dubois PTV is an early KO. I like Fight ends rounds 1-6 because it’s Heavyweights and anything can happen. If fight goes past 6 rounds then I will look to live bet Parker ML and Decision.

Zhang vs Kabayel - similar to Dubois fight. I will look to live bet Kabayel ML and Decision after the 6th round as Zhang will be gassed by then and Kabayel will take over.

Biev vs Bivol - I like fight ends in Solit Decision (+450) and Majority Draw (+850). Maybe sprinkle Biev rounds 9-12 (+550) as Bivol loses steam on his punches later in the fight. He may be tired again and Biev can catch and finish Bivol.

 

[burge13]

I like fight goes to split decision (+450) and fight ends in Majority Decision (+850). If a fight is a split it is hard to predict who the winner will be.

Bloody good point lol.

 

[Brockstar]

Ya, I feel a stoppage doesn't just rely on Zhang though. Obviously Zhang is super dangerous the first 6 rounds and finish anyone but after that point I could see Kabayel's ruthless bodywork gassing Zhang even quicker and lead to a stoppage later in the fight.

It’s a great live bet opportunity for Kabayel after the 6th.

 

[EndlessCritic]

should tenshin nasukawa be -260 here?

 

[burge13]

should tenshin nasukawa be -260 here?

Moloney is a bit long in the tooth and has very little power. Tends to cost him rounds as nothing looks particularly impactful. Even if he lands judges don't notice, then he eats 1-2 bigger shots and loses the round...

Probably does have some value for experience edge but I'm not rushing to play it

 

[burge13]

Dubois OUT. Parker v Bakolie

Have to assume Parker takes this but wasn't expecting him to be in the 1.40's

Recent photos of Bakolie suggest he's not been training too hard. Early stop or bust for him, which heis capable of

 

[JC615]

First fight up: Buatsi vs. Smith

Anyone have a strong lean in this one? I reckon it goes to the cards either way. I'm thinking a sprinkle on the split decision around +450. Great value on Smith decision around +400.

 

[benebox]

0.75u agit to be knock down rds 1-6 +250
0.5u Parker decision +300
1u Beterbiev decision +280

 

[burge13]

Lost on Madrimov pretty big
Won on Smith but didn't cover Mad losses
Got under 8.5 in Parker/Bakolie to end a +660 parlay
Main event ends in split/majority decision. Expecting it to be close and want to watch as a fan so no ML pick. Gun to head, Beterbiev

 

[burge13]

Bivol having to work really hard early, but can Beterb keep this pace up for 8 more rounds. Fun fight

 

[burge13]

Majority decision!! +850, thank you judges

 

[JC615]

Majority decision!! +850, thank you judges

It finally put me up on the day! Wish I would have put substantially more on it.

 

[burge13]

It finally put me up on the day! Wish I would have put substantially more on it.

Easy to think in hindsight but can easily get screwed out of those so don't feel bad. Had good reads for it to be close

Being overly confident in Madrimov cost me a bit today but well up after the main event still. Good day

 

[JC615]

Easy to think in hindsight but can easily get screwed out of those so don't feel bad. Had good reads for it to be close

Being overly confident in Madrimov cost me a bit today but well up after the main event still. Good day

I lost a bit on Madrimov but was able to hedge with Ortiz. Just not enough. Also lost on Buatsi decision but hit the draw in Adames/Sheeraz. Lost around $22 on a Sheeraz dec play though. Lost on Parker decision and 7-12. Also lost on Beterbiev ML and either by split decision; also bet both guys by majority as well as either by majority so it worked out.

 

[burge13]

Moloney is a bit long in the tooth and has very little power. Tends to cost him rounds as nothing looks particularly impactful. Even if he lands judges don't notice, then he eats 1-2 bigger shots and loses the round...

Probably does have some value for experience edge but I'm not rushing to play it

Moloney a step slower the whole way but even in rounds where he was on the front foot Tenshin landed the bigger shots. Really should have played by decision, left some money on the table there. Oh well

Some close fights this weekend

Hurd/Gonzalez, Crocker/Donovon, Valenzuela/Russell, Matias/Valenzuela, Tank/Roach 8.5 rounds. We should be able to find something amongst this

 

[JC615]

What are we thinking tomorrow? I see Betway has a boost on Davis rounds 4-6 +400 so that probably won't hit. I'm thinking Davis 7-12 -136

 

[PuertoRican]

What are we thinking tomorrow? I see Betway has a boost on Davis rounds 4-6 +400 so that probably won't hit. I'm thinking Davis 7-12 -136

How about Subriel Matias KO/TKO -190?

I'm thinking about adding it to a parlay.

 

[JC615]

How about Subriel Matias KO/TKO -190?

I'm thinking about adding it to a parlay.

I will look into this fight more. I have to look in-depth at today's fights but it sounds like a good play in theory. Up until his loss he was mowing guys down. It's a 12-rounder too which makes me more confident in that play.

Russell decision is +400 against Valenzuela which may be worth a sprinkle.

 

[PuertoRican]

I will look into this fight more. I have to look in-depth at today's fights but it sounds like a good play in theory. Up until his loss he was mowing guys down. It's a 12-rounder too which makes me more confident in that play.

Russell decision is +400 against Valenzuela which may be worth a sprinkle.

 

[JC615]

View attachment 1084598

I think I'll copy this parlay!