Boxing Discussion VIII

Damn Zerafa win via decision was so close I was thinking about cashing out in the 9th round and then it ended lol. Still won with his ML though. Good stuff guys.
 
Well that was easy. Sometimes boxing throws you some dream lines and that was one of them.
 
For you guys betting the Loma fight:

I don't know much about the guy he's fighting, but I'm assuming he's gonna be fairly overmatched, right? I was looking at 5d odds just for the hell of it and noticed a weird delta that I don't understand. Boxing betting was never my area of expertise so I could just be missing something but there's a delta in two lines that I honestly don't get at all.

upload_2019-8-31_11-47-15.png
upload_2019-8-31_11-51-42.png

What am I missing? If Loma is that much better than Campbell to justify -1650 (and again, I know almost nothing of Campbell but have seen Loma plenty and he's amazing), why would you not bet the second of these options? Basically you are getting -453 vs -1650 and the only Loma wins not covered are by split or majority decision? Seems like his ML would be a foolish bet and that you are far better off taking his KO/UD line right? Or is there something I missed?

Just curious, thought it was odd.
 
mkess101 said:
For you guys betting the Loma fight:

I don't know much about the guy he's fighting, but I'm assuming he's gonna be fairly overmatched, right? I was looking at 5d odds just for the hell of it and noticed a weird delta that I don't understand. Boxing betting was never my area of expertise so I could just be missing something but there's a delta in two lines that I honestly don't get at all.

View attachment 638233
View attachment 638235

What am I missing? If Loma is that much better than Campbell to justify -1650 (and again, I know almost nothing of Campbell but have seen Loma plenty and he's amazing), why would you not bet the second of these options? Basically you are getting -453 vs -1650 and the only Loma wins not covered are by split or majority decision? Seems like his ML would be a foolish bet and that you are far better off taking his KO/UD line right? Or is there something I missed?

Just curious, thought it was odd.
Click to expand...
Boxing tends to have a lot of undeserved split & majority decisions even when the fight isn't that close. Also that KO or UD market is a prop and there are much smaller limits on that compared to moneylines, fyi.
 
Hughie Fury (+135) vs Alexander Povetkin $500.00 for $675.00
 
Vir_Ars said:
what? UD or KO?
Click to expand...

I meant the UD/KO/TKO/DQ he posted in the picture.

JimGunn said:
Boxing tends to have a lot of undeserved split & majority decisions even when the fight isn't that close. Also that KO or UD market is a prop and there are much smaller limits on that compared to moneylines, fyi.
Click to expand...

Everything you wrote is true. I just feel considering Lomachenko's style that there's a very small chance of a MD/SD so it makes sense to me mathematically, although there has been a lot of crazy examples of what you mentioned. Mayweather-Canelo is probably the most high-profile one.
 
JimGunn said:
Boxing tends to have a lot of undeserved split & majority decisions even when the fight isn't that close. Also that KO or UD market is a prop and there are much smaller limits on that compared to moneylines, fyi.
Click to expand...

I did assume limits would be much smaller yeah. But would you really say (limits aside) that the delta between the prop and the ML is close to being justified? Given the assumed gap in skill of these fighters?
 
mkess101 said:
I did assume limits would be much smaller yeah. But would you really say (limits aside) that the delta between the prop and the ML is close to being justified? Given the assumed gap in skill of these fighters?
Click to expand...

It's hard to knock guys out at lower weights in boxing even when/if you are massively better than them. Loma could win every single round, repeatedly land flush shots, and make his opponent look silly, but not get the finish.
 
mkess101 said:
I did assume limits would be much smaller yeah. But would you really say (limits aside) that the delta between the prop and the ML is close to being justified? Given the assumed gap in skill of these fighters?
Click to expand...
It's a good price comparatively on the prop for as much as you can get on it. But still a little risky.
 
Just tuned in fury match commentator said he's winning as of 11round? live bet fury at +150
 
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