Boxing Discussion V

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Someone already dropped 45000 on mayweather
 
Going to have hide out on this section of the forum until the McG May fight is over. What a disaster reading betting advice in the heavies and reddit
"I dunno, it probably has to do with the fact that when people bet, they do it for the most they can get. Hence betting on the underdog.
Consider this, if you are betting, you have enough money to be doing so. If you have enough money to be doing so, you're probably gonna be betting on the underdog so you can walk away with a lot more than a measly 10%."
"what is the confusion is here? You really think someone who is a multi-millionaire would waste time betting on the fav when they know the payout if the underdog wins"
 
JimGunn said:
Man, I know we all make assumptions or educated guesses to decide how to bet, but this a huge assumption based on trying to imagine how these three particular judges are supposedly going to think on the night, combined with evidence I don't think is actually proven, based on one fairly competitive fight. I don't know what's going to happen for sure- maybe I made a big bet on a moderate favorite on a fight that can go either way- but some of the reasoning I'm reading here seems like it's really going out on a limb to draw a conclusion.
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In rematches where I respect the ability of both fighters to win I instinctively favor the guy who lost the first fight (save for Mayweather fights). It is much easier to reassess your game plan after a loss and make adjustments than it is after a win. It is human nature. Given the controversy of this fight, and the level of fighter that Ward is and character that he possess it may be easier for him to make these changes than most. I'm not placing very much stock into this or to the mindset of the judges, but I will carry it with me and look for something to overcome or disprove these assumed biases. The first fight will be in the fighters and judges minds, there is no doubt about it. Everyone 'expects' Kovalev to start strong and have the advantage in the first few rounds.

There are obvious things that Kovalev can do differently to ensure a win this time. He had an especially low punch output in the first fight with far fewer punches per round than his other recent fights. I do think some of this can be attributed to his training which Kovalev brings up as an excuse in the 24/7 for this fight and getting over excited / experiencing an adrenaline dump after his early success. Kovalev has been a star for a while in boxing circles, but this was by far his biggest public fight. He also knows now that taking off rounds is not an option. I also think his early success took him away from enacting his normally devastating body work, something his corner has stressed for this fight. What has Ward learned from the first fight? What can ward do differently to win more rounds. Unless we see a tired, low output, low body work Kovalev from the outset, I am having a harder time seeing what Ward can do better this time around.
 
floyd ko is 1.9 at pp max bet 120 tho. edit: looks like its that everywhere
 
I'm just a casual boxing fan, but what are the chances McGregor lasts 12 rounds? Seems highly unlikely to me.
 
t6p said:
I'm just a casual boxing fan, but what are the chances McGregor lasts 12 rounds? Seems highly unlikely to me.
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He couldn't last 5 rounds boxing nate Diaz. Floyd is going to pummel him
 
I'm eager to see where the over/under is set. I could see Conor coming out hard and trying to KO Floyd in the first two or three rounds, the realizing he's getting tired and that it ain't gonna happen and then trying to save face by dancing around and playing defense the rest of the time. Floyd for his part, will push the pace a little, but play it safe and not go for the kill either respecting Conor's power and knowing he is up on the cards anyway. I like the over if it's set low and especially at + money.
 
@JimGunn having said all that, my golden rule of sportsbetting is that the market knows best. With that in mind, my main book right now sportsinteraction is offering Ward at 1.86 odds with Kovalev at 1.94. At these prices against the average market I have to go with Ward and probably will hold my tongue and back him if the odd moves any higher..
 
Russ82 said:
I would be shocked if he lasted 3 rounds
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I'm not sure there. It could go down a lot like Jimm laid out.

I just think Conor will be dead by the 6th or 7th. But hell, u never know with mayweather
 
I'm a naive in thinking it probably goes 12, floyd didn't KO berto who's not the best, haven't thought about it much but initial thoughts were floyd wins every round and it goes to points
 
As a degenerate and a MMA fan, I am obligated to put at least 200 dollars down on Conor McGregor.

Get that upset victory, homie.
 
Will mcgoat me knocked down during the fight +100
 
Read Floyd wanted 10oz gloves for this while he normally uses 8, curious about the over as well
 
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