Bellator 206 Mousasi vs MacDonald

P4p Islam said:
Mousasi is much bigger, a much better striker, and has fought way better competition.
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Better competition?????

Tyron Woodley
Wonderboy
Demian Maia
Nate Diaz
Robbie Lawler x2
Carlos Condit
Douglas Lima

All smack in the middle of their primes vs

Chris Weidman
Jacare
Thiago Santos
Aging Machida
OSP?? Washed up Vitor/Hendo/Leites? idk

It’s not even close, especially since Rory either beat or had close losses vs everybody except WB. Rory’s schedule murks Mousasi’s
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Better competition?????

Tyron Woodley
Wonderboy
Demian Maia
Nate Diaz
Robbie Lawler x2
Carlos Condit
Douglas Lima

All smack in the middle of their primes vs

Chris Weidman
Jacare
Thiago Santos
Aging Machida
OSP?? Washed up Vitor/Hendo/Leites? idk

It’s not even close, especially since Rory either beat or had close losses vs everybody except WB. Rory’s schedule murks Mousasi’s
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Im convinced youre either a troll or horribly uneducated.


You listed nate diaz.
 
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Lightbringer said:
I honestly think Pico should be -180ish (what he opened up as in non-US books). Pico has a lot of great raw skills and will be very good in a few years assuming he does not take too much damage. I followed him during his freestyle wrestling career until he lost in the olympic trial finals. He is a great wrestler, but he seems to be strike first type of guy and he did not wrestle in college so I doubt his top control skills are that great (in college wrestling there are incentives in the form of "riding time" to hold opponents down where it is not as emphasized in freestyle wrestling) but they are still probably good.

That being said I think this will be a striking contest and even though Pico seems to have great offensive weapons and raw power and awesome body shots, he seems to be super hittable. Freeman clipped him with an uppercut and even Justin Linn was tagging him at times. Higo is super technical, is hard to hit clean and has good uppercuts, leg kicks, and a wide variety of strikes. I think he could easily land some CLEAN counters on Pico. We have seen Higo composed throughout a 3 round striking affair vs Dantas. We have not seen Pico in a long bout as he hunts for finishes immediately. I think if Pico does not get Higo out of there early, I would trust Higo's striking defense much more than Pico's at this point in their career.

I still favor Pico because of the aggression, raw power, and possible wrestling path (even though I expect him to mostly strike) but betting Pico over anything at -200 seems a bit risky.
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This is an excellent post and I agree. Have been betting Higo from +420 to +335. Anything at +3xx is value IMO

I have never seen a prospect take this big a step up in competition. Pico has been murking types that would get melted as +500 dogs in DWTNCS, and Higo would be a decent UFC fighter. Not to mention that Higo is considerably better than Freeman, and that fight was only 15 months ago.

I just don’t see how melting a few cans and a year+ of development makes Pico unbeatable. He clearly has some monstrous holes in his defense that will take time to resolve, and Higo can box.

Pico may be very good in time, but at this juncture he is very flawed and unproven. Crazy his price is barely even less juiced than prior 3 vs such a big step up in talent
 
raketmannen said:
He also has a loss to him, and in his win against him he arguably lost the 2 first rounds before getting the knock out in the third. And Koresh was having success against Lima in the wrestling department, which didn't seem to have improved in Limas latest fight against Rory
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I had it 1-1 in the second fight. I thought the leg kicks Lima landed on Koreshkov might have been a contributing factor to him selling out trying to hurt Lima against the fence. That leg might've been damaged pretty badly and, in that case, Lima would've had a distinct edge in rounds 3-5.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
This is an excellent post and I agree. Have been betting Higo from +420 to +335. Anything at +3xx is value IMO

I have never seen a prospect take this big a step up in competition. Pico has been murking types that would get melted as +500 dogs in DWTNCS, and Higo would be a decent UFC fighter. Not to mention that Higo is considerably better than Freeman, and that fight was only 15 months ago.

I just don’t see how melting a few cans and a year+ of development makes Pico unbeatable. He clearly has some monstrous holes in his defense that will take time to resolve, and Higo can box.

Pico may be very good in time, but at this juncture he is very flawed and unproven. Crazy his price is barely even less juiced than prior 3 vs such a big step up in talent
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Agree. Line is WAY too wide even though I think Pico probably wins. Pico will have a size edge too but yeah Higo being completely disrespected here and should be +200 at worst.
 
turbozed said:
I had it 1-1 in the second fight. I thought the leg kicks Lima landed on Koreshkov might have been a contributing factor to him selling out trying to hurt Lima against the fence. That leg might've been damaged pretty badly and, in that case, Lima would've had a distinct edge in rounds 3-5.
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me 2 although you never know what's going through judges minds since leg kicks are practically treated as non-scoring strikes.
 
P4p Islam said:
Mousasi is much bigger, a much better striker, and has fought way better competition.
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Is Mousasi really gonna be "much" bigger? I guess I'm not sure. He's a pretty lean guy even though I know he has fought at LHW. He'll be bigger for sure, guess I just don't know how much bigger.

The guys who have really dominated Mousasi have done it by putting him on his back and keeping him there. I wonder if Rory will look to try to do it, and if he can have any success.
 
mkess101 said:
Is Mousasi really gonna be "much" bigger? I guess I'm not sure. He's a pretty lean guy even though I know he has fought at LHW. He'll be bigger for sure, guess I just don't know how much bigger.

The guys who have really dominated Mousasi have done it by putting him on his back and keeping him there. I wonder if Rory will look to try to do it, and if he can have any success.
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Rory just told Helwani he weighs 190 lbs. So you figure Mousasi's going to be about 15 lbs heavier if he cuts 20 lbs.

I don't think Rory had enough time to pack on that much mass. He also can't go too crazy because he's gotta fight at 170 soon.
 
mkess101 said:
Agree. Line is WAY too wide even though I think Pico probably wins. Pico will have a size edge too but yeah Higo being completely disrespected here and should be +200 at worst.
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Pico says he prefers to box over wrestle, him and Higo have the same reach, Higo may get a little extra pop moving up a weight class...don’t think Pico’s size advantage will loom that large
 
turbozed said:
Rory just told Helwani he weighs 190 lbs. So you figure Mousasi's going to be about 15 lbs heavier if he cuts 20 lbs.

I don't think Rory had enough time to pack on that much mass. He also can't go too crazy because he's gotta fight at 170 soon.
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Rory said he didnt try to pack on mass and that he disagreed with GSP for taking that approach for Bisping. Seems confident that his speed and skill will be enough
 
If Mousasi is in shape he frustrates Rory in striking and takes it, but he may have the worse day like it was against Shlemenko.I think we will see Mousasi we all want to see
 
Is Rory's wrestling good enough to steal close rounds even with the size disadvantage? I think that's his best path to victory. If he can't hit any TD's (or doesn't try) is this just gonna look like his fight with Wonderboy where he can't get enough offense going against a longer, more skilled striker? Rory has a nice jab but no way will that be enough here.
 
mkess101 said:
Is Rory's wrestling good enough to steal close rounds even with the size disadvantage? I think that's his best path to victory. If he can't hit any TD's (or doesn't try) is this just gonna look like his fight with Wonderboy where he can't get enough offense going against a longer, more skilled striker? Rory has a nice jab but no way will that be enough here.
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He probably could late at the round, but don't see him being able to keep Mousasi down at all, he used his butterfly hooks beutifully against Weidman and didn't spend more than 30 seconds on the ground before getting up
 
mkess101 said:
Is Rory's wrestling good enough to steal close rounds even with the size disadvantage? I think that's his best path to victory. If he can't hit any TD's (or doesn't try) is this just gonna look like his fight with Wonderboy where he can't get enough offense going against a longer, more skilled striker? Rory has a nice jab but no way will that be enough here.
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He took down Woodley...Mousasi is hard to hold down, but he leaves himself exposed for takedowns and Rory is so crafty at mixing it in with his strikes that I imagine Rory can find occasional windows to get this to the ground.

Rory and Firas are both pretty smart, I expect them to use IQ + strategy to overcome the size disparity
 
turbozed said:
Neither over-extend themselves seeking a finish and that makes both of them less likely to get one or be finished seeking one
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Playing devils advocate here... but Mousasi striking has been a little bit sloppier lately and he is in fact overextending himself more than before.
The Weidman fight is a perfect example. But to be fair he started to look for the finish when he had the fight in his bag.
I honestly dont see how someone can make a case for Rory here other a decision in a slow paced striking battle where Mousasi seems of?
People bring Lima fight to the table but Rory had to wrestlefuck his way to win. He is not taking down Mousasi and much less keeping him there. Chris Weidman couldnt.
If anything I think Mousasi has a big grappling advantage and if he gets on top is really really bad for Rory.
 
turbozed said:
I had it 1-1 in the second fight. I thought the leg kicks Lima landed on Koreshkov might have been a contributing factor to him selling out trying to hurt Lima against the fence. That leg might've been damaged pretty badly and, in that case, Lima would've had a distinct edge in rounds 3-5.
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Oh.. that is true. Koreshkov went for the kill because his leg was all fucked.

Lima must be the only guy who constantly hurt people bad with legkicks.

Lima should win this one but he has the fight IQ of a potato. I have a bet on him but Im not confident at all.
 
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