Bellator 206 Mousasi vs MacDonald

[LiquidNuke]

What weight class is wand/page at? I trust Wanda chin a lot more when he doesn’t cut weight. They are both old and have no business fighting anymore, but it seems wand has kept his fighting spirit and rampage just doesn’t care. I will take wand and dog odds and live with my fighter getting kod then betting a juiced favorite and have him just not care.

I believe this is the same type of contest as Rampage's last two, not a LHW bout, so he can come in as heavy as he wants. Which likely means a 245+ pound Rampage come fight night.

 

[null]

What weight class is wand/page at? I trust Wanda chin a lot more when he doesn’t cut weight. They are both old and have no business fighting anymore, but it seems wand has kept his fighting spirit and rampage just doesn’t care. I will take wand and dog odds and live with my fighter getting kod then betting a juiced favorite and have him just not care.

The fight is at heavyweight. Wand said he would be around 230+ pounds on the media conference call.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Am I the only one really focusing on Gegard ITD as one of my primary bets of the card?

 

[null]

Am I the only one really focusing on Gegard ITD as one of my primary bets of the card?

I wouldn't do that. This can easily go to decision and Gegard moneyline was as low as -220 just the other day.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I wouldn't do that. This can easily go to decision and Gegard moneyline was as low as -220 just the other day.

Best I can get him at is -250. You really don't think a finishing machine like Gegard can duplicate what a war torn 170 pounder in Robbie Lawler did?

Not trying to be an ass, love to have some real discussion about it though. Gegard seems to be the very best he's ever been, which isn't exactly something you can say for Rory. My opinion anyway.

 

[Karmello]

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Best I can get him at is -250. You really don't think a finishing machine like Gegard can duplicate what a war torn 170 pounder in Robbie Lawler did?

Not trying to be an ass, love to have some real discussion about it though. Gegard seems to be the very best he's ever been, which isn't exactly something you can say for Rory. My opinion anyway.

I’m on Rory for small $, mostly bc I fear Gegard’s finishing ability. In a 5 rounder with Rory’s nose issues I definitely take Mousasi ITD >>> Mousasi Dec. If this goes 5 rounds, that means Rory likely fought well and possibly won

If we are assuming Moose wins 70/30, I’d break it down as:

Moose ITD 55%
Rory ITD 15%
Moose Dec 15%
Rory Dec 15%

 

[chemmy]

I’m on Rory for small $, mostly bc I fear Gegard’s finishing ability. In a 5 rounder with Rory’s nose issues I definitely take Mousasi ITD >>> Mousasi Dec. If this goes 5 rounds, that means Rory likely fought well and possibly won

If we are assuming Moose wins 70/30, I’d break it down as:

Moose ITD 55%
Rory ITD 15%
Moose Dec 15%
Rory Dec 15%

To be honest, I think your numbers are way off. Rory is tough as nails. I don't see any reason to believe that a Mousasi finish is almost 4 times more likely than a Mousasi decision. I actually think Mousasi by decision is likely the most probable outcome here.

 

[LiquidNuke]

To be honest, I think your numbers are way off. Rory is tough as nails. I don't see any reason to believe that a Mousasi finish is almost 4 times more likely than a Mousasi decision. I actually think Mousasi by decision is likely the most probable outcome here.

Why won't Gegard in this kind of form be able to duplicate what a war torn 170 lb Robbie Lawler did? Lawler finished him the second time around and almost had him out in the third round of the first fight.

Rory is tough, sure. And he marks up and bleeds terrible and isn't the hardest guy in the world to hit. He's never been hit by someone that can punch like Gegard.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

To be honest, I think your numbers are way off. Rory is tough as nails. I don't see any reason to believe that a Mousasi finish is almost 4 times more likely than a Mousasi decision. I actually think Mousasi by decision is likely the most probable outcome here.

Because I don’t think Mousasi is a better points fighter than Rory who dominated Woodley and Diaz, won a clear decision vs Maia, and was up in the scorecards vs Lawler and Condit before getting KO’d

If Mousasi is comfortably < 50% to finish, that means Rory is +EV (which I believe both are true— I am on Rory)

 

[Stunna77]

Why won't Gegard in this kind of form be able to duplicate what a war torn 170 lb Robbie Lawler did? Lawler finished him the second time around and almost had him out in the third round of the first fight.

Rory is tough, sure. And he marks up and bleeds terrible and isn't the hardest guy in the world to hit. He's never been hit by someone that can punch like Gegard.

Because Moose generally finishes guys where he has a large advantage over them, I.E. submits strikers, KO's grapplers. Rory is well rounded enough where you would be betting on his nose giving out to the point he gets TKO'd. He took A LOT of punishment before sucumming to Robbie Lawler and as we know Lawler can fucking bang. Just bet the ML for 75% of your stake and hit ITD for 25% or some variance of that. Don't get suckered into betting just the prop when your guy could win a clear dec and you still lose.

Edit: I should say finishes them at their weakest point, so not necessarily submits strikers, but takes them down and either finishes with a sub or TKO.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Best I can get him at is -250. You really don't think a finishing machine like Gegard can duplicate what a war torn 170 pounder in Robbie Lawler did?

Not trying to be an ass, love to have some real discussion about it though. Gegard seems to be the very best he's ever been, which isn't exactly something you can say for Rory. My opinion anyway.

Mousasi is the very best he's ever been and Rory lost to a 170 pounder? Strange points if you consider Gegard almost lost to basically a 170 pounder in Shlemenko less than a year ago. Of course his eyes closing up played a big part in that, but still....

And Rory just beat a killer in Lima, even with a very bad looking leg injury. He's a tough guy.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Because Moose generally finishes guys where he has a large advantage over them, I.E. submits strikers, KO's grapplers. Rory is well rounded enough where you would be betting on his nose giving out to the point he gets TKO'd. He took A LOT of punishment before sucumming to Robbie Lawler and as we know Lawler can fucking bang. Just bet the ML for 75% of your stake and hit ITD for 25% or some variance of that. Don't get suckered into betting just the prop when your guy could win a clear dec and you still lose.

Edit: I should say finishes them at their weakest point, so not necessarily submits strikers, but takes them down and either finishes with a sub or TKO.

This is a good point, but I don’t get why you would bet on Mousasi if you don’t believe he will finish. Power + durability are his main advantages over Rory outside of size

The only fight Rory has failed to control without getting hurt is WB. Other than that he beats everybody on the scorecards. If Mousasi doesn’t break him, how does he win? Don’t see wrestlefuck happening

 

[null]

 

[LiquidNuke]

Mousasi is the very best he's ever been and Rory lost to a 170 pounder? Strange points if you consider Gegard almost lost to basically a 170 pounder in Shlemenko less than a year ago. Of course his eyes closing up played a big part in that, but still....

And Rory just beat a killer in Lima, even with a very bad looking leg injury. He's a tough guy.

Yeah, a flukey and very wild southpaw thrown overhand to the eye dictated how that fight played out, not Gegard's actual abilities.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Because Moose generally finishes guys where he has a large advantage over them, I.E. submits strikers, KO's grapplers. Rory is well rounded enough where you would be betting on his nose giving out to the point he gets TKO'd. He took A LOT of punishment before sucumming to Robbie Lawler and as we know Lawler can fucking bang. Just bet the ML for 75% of your stake and hit ITD for 25% or some variance of that. Don't get suckered into betting just the prop when your guy could win a clear dec and you still lose.

Edit: I should say finishes them at their weakest point, so not necessarily submits strikers, but takes them down and either finishes with a sub or TKO.

Good advice, and I'll take it. Thanks.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Yeah, a flukey and very wild southpaw thrown overhand to the eye dictated how that fight played out, not Gegard's actual abilities.

I already addressed the eye issue, it was still not a good look for Mousasi. Literally and figuratively, I guess.

Lima is as good a finisher as Mousasi is though, and Rory managed to survive.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I already addressed the eye issue, it was still not a good look for Mousasi. Literally and figuratively, I guess.

Lima is as good a finisher as Mousasi is though, and Rory managed to survive.

I honestly completely disagree that Lima is on the same level as Gegard... I think that's patently false to be honest.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I honestly completely disagree that Lima is on the same level as Gegard... I think that's patently false to be honest.

Not what I said.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Not what I said.

Do you think Lima hits as hard as Gegard? Or possesses the same kind of wrestling and submission ability? I don't think he does, so what does it matter if he is as good as a finisher? He's not hitting as hard to begin with.