Aspinall won't make it out of the second round.

[650lb Sumo]

Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

 

[tasticles]

You might be right. That knee injury may have ruined him. This will be very telling on what to expect trom him after this fight.

 

[svmr_db]

Yeah I like Pav's chances here as the underdog, he's more tested & the Blaydes win was legit. Aspinall has looked great but he just got to fight Tybura lol, I think Pav could show him there's levels to this.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Love Pav but there's limited evidence how either guy will do past the first round since between the two of them, a 2nd round has only happened once and for a very short period of time

 

[laleggenda27]

I wouldn't bet on either guy making it out of the second round.

That being said, Aspinall is the better overall fighter. But his attacks on the feet are very linear...straight in and straight out. That seems like a recipe for disaster against Pavlovich, who throws heavy straight shots. And the lack of a training camp shouldn't be underestimated. The Nate-Conor and Bisping-Luke fights tricked people into thinking it's a good idea to "come off the couch" and fight high-level opponents...it's not.

I've been saying for a while that Aspinall is the best HW on the planet. But taking this fight on short notice was reckless. If he wins under these circumstances, which is still possible, even the haters will have to bow down.

 

[mjfan23]

I don’t think he will make it out of the first (if Pav is winning).

If Pav is measured and trying to pace himself I don’t see him making it beyond the third in a losing effort.

he should blitz Tom and get him out of there

 

[Senzo Tanaka]

Tom won't make it out of the 2nd round because he's only been to the 2nd round once in his career. Pav has been never been to the 2nd round in the UFC.

Unlike Islam/Volk, this is going to be a 1 rounder whether these guys are healthy, trained or not.

 

[650lb Sumo]

Love Pav but there's limited evidence how either guy will do past the first round since between the two of them, a 2nd round has only happened once and for a very short period of time

Tom won't make it out of the 2nd round because he's only been to the 2nd round once in his career. Pav has been never been to the 2nd round in the UFC.

Unlike Islam/Volk, this is going to be a 1 rounder whether these guys are healthy, trained or not.

Between the two of them they have gone to the
2nd: thrice (all Tom)
3rd: twice (all Sergei)
5th: once (all Sergei)

 

[BabyBlue_Bomber]

I don’t believe he will either, but he has shown that he has the cage savvy to extend the fight…

I just think Pavlovich just has a style that forces his opponents to trade with him, even though they all know they shouldn’t.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Between the two of them they have gone to the
2nd: thrice (all Tom)
3rd: twice (all Sergei)
5th: once (all Sergei)

Pre ufc really doesn't count, especially for them

 

[RoyJonesJr]

Aspinal has the higher ceiling but both guys are overrated on here

 

[rstringer]

Pav has a very cold confident Drago like demeanor, I think Asp needs to bring in a Rocky 4 mentality to beat him.

 

[Bruce Lee666]

HW anything can happen I never Bet in HW fights.

 

[CieloLuce]

I see this going to the 3rd. I think both men might be gun shy, first round is definitely going be a feeler.

 

[SuperAlly]

HW anything can happen I never Bet in HW fights.

 

[SuperAlly]

Tom has more ways to win I.m.o,

 

[wisdom blows]

Tom is better everywhere.

 

[codfather]

I'm surprised Aspinall is the betting fav. He has the thinnest resume of anybody who fought for the UFC HW title since Mark Hunt almost 9 years ago.

Guys like Blaydes, Volkov and Tuivasa have done far more in the sport than him without ever getting close to a title shot.

I reckon Pav will catch and finish Tom in the first round.
Pav will be too strong for a weathered Jones, too big for Jailton and he'd eventually catch Stipe and Volkov.
I think Gane could be Pav's kryptonite.

Pav is 31, which is the same age Ngannou was when he first fought for the UFC title.

 

[xhaydenx]

just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Fuck me, what an absolutely stupid take.

Don't try and make it out like Pav stopped the wrestling of Blaydes when Aspinall didn't. That best wrestler in the division didn't even shoot for a takedown against Pav until 2.5 mins when he'd already been dropped and hurt and was still recovering. He was more just shooting to try and tie up and get away from the hands. He came to box against Pav, and he never even had enough time to try a td against Aspinall lol.

So, no, what Pav did to Blaydes says nothing about what he can/will do to Aspinall lol.

Also, if Sergei's been wrestling since he was 5, how come a guy who was pushing 40 like Reem was able to stuff him easily, take him down even easier, and then control and finish him with complete ease?

 

[Bruce Lee666]

Fuck me, what an absolutely stupid take.

Don't try and make it out like Pav stopped the wrestling of Blaydes when Aspinall didn't. That best wrestler in the division didn't even shoot for a takedown against Pav until 2.5 mins when he'd already been dropped and hurt and was still recovering. He was more just shooting to try and tie up and get away from the hands. He came to box against Pav, and he never even had enough time to try a td against Aspinall lol.

So, no, what Pav did to Blaydes says nothing about what he can/will do to Aspinall lol.

Also, if Sergei's been wrestling since he was 5, how come a guy who was pushing 40 like Reem was able to stuff him easily, take him down even easier, and then control and finish him with complete ease?

People forget How Good Reem are he's a Legendary Fighter and a Legend, How many guys in UFC can control a Monster like Lesnar in the Clinch ? Overeem have nights that he appear to fight as a Fucking Monster he made a fast Job in Pav and Lesnar.