I think Newsom will have a much harder time getting out of the primaries. His record is so easy to pick apart, and he basically coasts on being "Good looking Governor of big GDP state", without many looking into his actual policies. I think most are like Bill Maher, who can't really even explain why they like him, other than that he presents well on the surface. Basically, he's well spoken and good looking. I don't see that carrying him over the top.
I also think it's far too early in this administration, to predict where they'll be at in 2028. The economy is a fickle bitch, and if it picks up...that's really all people care about. That's why they're not so hot right now. That can change.