Opening weekend estimates are out [
LINK]. We're looking at a slightly underwhelming $58mil (projections put it at $60-65). That's enough to open at #1 but it barely avoids being the worst opening for an MCU, just beating out The Incredible Hulk's $55.4mil opener. Another worrying number is the poor per-theater average. To compare:
Ant-Man $15,052 avg
Thor 2 $22,322 avg
Cap 2 $24,130 avg
GotG $23,118 avg
Hulk $15,810 avg
That's the worst theater average out of any MCU film so far. Using three examples to project the final domestic gross:
Legs like Hulk: $141.1mil
Legs like Thor 2: $139.7mil
Legs like Cap 2: $158.7mil
If I had to guess I'd put it in the $145-150mil range; it has had a better reception than Thor 2 but not on Cap 2's level.
That total is only about $10-15mil more than Incredible Hulk, but Ant-Man has two advantages. First, it's foreign take will be much higher than Hulk's which was just $128.6mil (Ant-Man already has $56.4mil). And second it had a budget of just $130mil compared to Hulk's $150mil. So Hulk will remain the worst MCU financial performance.