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Well, as the title says, how do you think the rematch goes? Ankalaev remains champion? Pereira gets the title back?
I think that, considering Alex Pereira fought with a viral infection that nearly pulled him off the first fight, while coming off 3 belt defenses, 2 on short notices vs elite current LHWs (Jiri Prochazka and Rountree), the latter which he fought with a bad rib and on antibiotics for half the camp, I think that a fresh Alex Pereira gets the advantage over Ankalaev here. Ankalaev will be likely better too, fighting in Abu Dhabi and having more time to train + no Ramadan, bringing the best of him too. But a fresh Pereira like the one who fought Jiri Prochazka, likely slightly worse physically but better technically, now having the best TD defense of LHW outside Ankalaev, will likely edge it out.
The first fight was close... But it was still a 3-2 Ankalaev. Not dominant by any means though. But still a step ahead. A fresh Pereira imo would turn that script, but I expect a higher intensity fight. Both fighters having improved from the first fight, but Pereira with his usual focus, stone face, and his power back when fresh imo is likely to lead him on a reversal here. If there's a finish, I think it is Pereira, while if Ankalaev wins, I imagine another 3-2 but even tighter. However, I'd bet on a high level competitive fight, a classic showdown of the current best LHWs of the modern era, but with Alex a step ahead... His proven takedown defense will likely give him more confidence. His better shape imo is likely to shine over as well by slowing Ankalaev's entries quicker with calf kicks, plus his better hands causing more damage. I bet on a high level elite fight, but a reversal with a 3-2 or 4-1 for Alex Pereira this time. Ankalaev, due to being an elite Dagestani fighter (competitive AF), and having a 21-1 record is a nightmare for any fighter on the roster, which is why I truly think both those two are the current best fighters in the UFC as in, "the baddest men duel" ... One thing that Artem, that Russian rival from Pereira on kickboxing, said that he considers Pereira's biggest strength is his raw talent and fighting IQ... So I expect Alex to make adjustments to counter Ankalaev's effective game plan in the first fight — mainly his level change feints —> quick power shots.
We've seen Alex using his jab effectively to counter Jiri Prochazka's level changes feints in their second fight, so a better timing here due to a fresh, no injury/sick Pereira can do the same. Imo it's going to be a tough fight, but I'm betting on a 3-2 or 4-1 Pereira, or even a late round, like round 4 or 5 TKO here, considering Pereira's showcase prowess vs Jiri and Rountree, who are the next best LHWs after Pereira and Ank... Anyways, I go with Alex Pereira after a tough elite fight most likely, a 55/45 scenario for Pereira imo... Maybe tighter as Ankalaev is really elite and will be better too, so perhaps a 52-48 Alex Pereira type of fight...
Though if he wins, then we'd get a rubber match? I don't think so, I'd like to see Pereira going to HW (which is likely the case imo), to have a shot at the belt and becoming the first champ champ champ in history, as I think if he beats Ankalaev, then him fighting at a 244 lbs lean frame as shown in recent footage, would maximize his stamina and resilience due to no weight cut, and his power as well, like we've seen when he moved up to LHW, with his attributes like calf kicks and punches translating very well. And if he's good enough to be the best LHW in the current LHW scenario, that is, an evolved era from the one of the Reyes/Santos/Jan Blackowski era which was giving JJ a challenge already, I think he's got everything to get the third belt in HW... Then, maybe a rubber match vs Ank at HW or (as Pereira plans to do), to call Jon Jones for a final fight (alluded by Ilia Topuria's comments)...
Thoughts?
I think that, considering Alex Pereira fought with a viral infection that nearly pulled him off the first fight, while coming off 3 belt defenses, 2 on short notices vs elite current LHWs (Jiri Prochazka and Rountree), the latter which he fought with a bad rib and on antibiotics for half the camp, I think that a fresh Alex Pereira gets the advantage over Ankalaev here. Ankalaev will be likely better too, fighting in Abu Dhabi and having more time to train + no Ramadan, bringing the best of him too. But a fresh Pereira like the one who fought Jiri Prochazka, likely slightly worse physically but better technically, now having the best TD defense of LHW outside Ankalaev, will likely edge it out.
The first fight was close... But it was still a 3-2 Ankalaev. Not dominant by any means though. But still a step ahead. A fresh Pereira imo would turn that script, but I expect a higher intensity fight. Both fighters having improved from the first fight, but Pereira with his usual focus, stone face, and his power back when fresh imo is likely to lead him on a reversal here. If there's a finish, I think it is Pereira, while if Ankalaev wins, I imagine another 3-2 but even tighter. However, I'd bet on a high level competitive fight, a classic showdown of the current best LHWs of the modern era, but with Alex a step ahead... His proven takedown defense will likely give him more confidence. His better shape imo is likely to shine over as well by slowing Ankalaev's entries quicker with calf kicks, plus his better hands causing more damage. I bet on a high level elite fight, but a reversal with a 3-2 or 4-1 for Alex Pereira this time. Ankalaev, due to being an elite Dagestani fighter (competitive AF), and having a 21-1 record is a nightmare for any fighter on the roster, which is why I truly think both those two are the current best fighters in the UFC as in, "the baddest men duel" ... One thing that Artem, that Russian rival from Pereira on kickboxing, said that he considers Pereira's biggest strength is his raw talent and fighting IQ... So I expect Alex to make adjustments to counter Ankalaev's effective game plan in the first fight — mainly his level change feints —> quick power shots.
We've seen Alex using his jab effectively to counter Jiri Prochazka's level changes feints in their second fight, so a better timing here due to a fresh, no injury/sick Pereira can do the same. Imo it's going to be a tough fight, but I'm betting on a 3-2 or 4-1 Pereira, or even a late round, like round 4 or 5 TKO here, considering Pereira's showcase prowess vs Jiri and Rountree, who are the next best LHWs after Pereira and Ank... Anyways, I go with Alex Pereira after a tough elite fight most likely, a 55/45 scenario for Pereira imo... Maybe tighter as Ankalaev is really elite and will be better too, so perhaps a 52-48 Alex Pereira type of fight...
Though if he wins, then we'd get a rubber match? I don't think so, I'd like to see Pereira going to HW (which is likely the case imo), to have a shot at the belt and becoming the first champ champ champ in history, as I think if he beats Ankalaev, then him fighting at a 244 lbs lean frame as shown in recent footage, would maximize his stamina and resilience due to no weight cut, and his power as well, like we've seen when he moved up to LHW, with his attributes like calf kicks and punches translating very well. And if he's good enough to be the best LHW in the current LHW scenario, that is, an evolved era from the one of the Reyes/Santos/Jan Blackowski era which was giving JJ a challenge already, I think he's got everything to get the third belt in HW... Then, maybe a rubber match vs Ank at HW or (as Pereira plans to do), to call Jon Jones for a final fight (alluded by Ilia Topuria's comments)...
Thoughts?
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