If Jones gets froggy and tries to strike with Gustafsson then Gus WILL catch him and put him down. The question truly is, just how good is Jones' chin and recovery? I have a very, very good feeling we'll be finding out. Jones will want to try and take Gustafsson down immediately, if not, after he gets tagged nice and hard with a straight punch (jab or cross). If he struggles to take Alex down (which I think will happen) then he's going to take some damage before his next takedown attempt and so on. Gus will move around him, dance around him like Ali, pick his shots, use his footwork, speed, angles and get his timing and rhythm going.
Even if Jones is able to take Alex down, he isn't assured to do a ton of damage from the top or get a sub. Alex is very strong and avoids GnP well. He could nullify Jones' GnP from guard, Anderson is pretty damn good at this (thanks to the 2nd Chael fight). This is also why Weidman didn't enter his guard when he GnP'd him to start, that way Anderson couldn't tie him up and wait for the standup or until the clock ran out. Unlike Anderson though, Alex is very good at getting back to his feet. We'll see if he can against Jones, assuming Jones can take him down at all.