ADCC 2013 Total Submissions

[Drew Foster]

JT vs Rios was a cop choke/RNC. Will add to list tonight.

You're counting the gable grip RNC as different?

 

[Einarr]

I love these sort of breakdowns. Thanks

Same. Thanks, OP.

 

[Zankou]

Very good list of what actually finishes good competitors. So many submissions are "gym specials," but they don't actually work against guys at a high level in grappling competition ... and to my mind you are pretty much wasting your time training them. This is the stuff that actually works.

17 wins by leglock
8 wins by armbar
6 wins by guillotine
5 wins by RNC
4 wins by triangle
1 win by D'Arce

I have less and less patience for weird gym tricks when it comes to grappling. Btw, there are a couple moves ... like omoplata and kimura ... that you are unlikely to finish anybody with, but are great for transitioning to a more dominant position and then a real submission. But most submissions are a bunch of hocus pocus that ends up sacrificing control and positioning advantage for a fantasy.

 

[Drew Foster]

Very good list of what actually finishes good competitors. So many submissions are "gym specials," but they don't actually work against guys at a high level in grappling competition ... and to my mind you are pretty much wasting your time training them. This is the stuff that actually works.

17 wins by leglock
8 wins by armbar
6 wins by guillotine
5 wins by RNC
4 wins by triangle
1 win by D'Arce

I have less and less patience for weird gym tricks when it comes to grappling. Btw, there are a couple moves ... like omoplata and kimura ... that you are unlikely to finish anybody with, but are great for transitioning to a more dominant position and then a real submission. But most submissions are a bunch of hocus pocus that ends up sacrificing control and positioning advantage for a fantasy.

And if you look at the list he did this year the numbers aren't that different.

Leg Attack Finishes (15 total, 8 heelhooks, 2 kneebars, 3 toehold, 2 straight ankles)

Arm Attack Finishes (7 total, 5 armbar, 2 kimura)

Chokes ( 18 total, 8 RNC, 5 guillotine, 3 triangle, 2 Darce)

What surprised me is to see no side choke / arm triangles in ADCC 2011 or 2013. I saw it used a lot by Keenan either as a sub attempt or to transition to the triangle or to the back. But I guess no one finished with it.

Do you think that's a high percentage sub that's not on the list?

 

[Zankou]

Side choke and arm triangle almost never works in high-level grappling comp, IMO. It is useful against outmatched opponents, which is why you will see it in MMA. But even though I think it is very close to being viable ... and therefore not a waste of time ... it just isn't really high percentage when two guys are very, very closely matched. I have never caught anybody with the side triangle who was not significantly less advanced as a grappler. I certainly can't threaten guys who are better than me with it, the way I can with a heelhook, triangle, armbar, guillotine, etc. You have to really be dominating the guy to get them to work reliably. That at any rate is my experience, and I think it's borne out by its rarity in high-level grappling competition.

The one arm triangle you will reliably see hit at a high level is the darce from top position, and that's because you can really smash your opponent with position. Again, when it's just a "trick", like rolling darces or darces from below and stuff, they only really work when you are a lot better than your opponent.

 

[SuperSuperRambo]

What's really funny is that putting all chokes together in 2011 still would have yielded only 16 chokes vs. 17 leglocks.

Or 24 upper body submissions versus 17 lower body submissions.

I get it, you're trying (quite transparently) to make a point that is consistent with your views on grappling. I just like calling people on their biases when they're trying to make it look like a neutral analysis. Leg locks are undoubtedly effective, even more so when there are fewer consequences (i.e. sections of the match without points). It's not 1997, nobody thinks that leg locks are the devil anymore.

But it's not as if leg locks were more common than upper body submissions. They weren't. That's what I was getting at where you aggregated leg locks while breaking down everything else. You can present the numbers in a lot of different ways. Leg locks are a great tool when the rules are not ridiculous (like IBJJF) and actually allow you to go for them. I think if anything, ADCC should be an argument that the IBJJF should allow reaping and heel hooks, since clearly the top guys are hip to that game and seem fine with those rules.

 

[SuperSuperRambo]

Side choke and arm triangle almost never works in high-level grappling comp, IMO. It is useful against outmatched opponents, which is why you will see it in MMA. But even though I think it is very close to being viable ... and therefore not a waste of time ... it just isn't really high percentage when two guys are very, very closely matched. I have never caught anybody with the side triangle who was not significantly less advanced as a grappler. I certainly can't threaten guys who are better than me with it, the way I can with a heelhook, triangle, armbar, guillotine, etc. You have to really be dominating the guy to get them to work reliably. That at any rate is my experience, and I think it's borne out by its rarity in high-level grappling competition.

The one arm triangle you will reliably see hit at a high level is the darce from top position, and that's because you can really smash your opponent with position. Again, when it's just a "trick", like rolling darces or darces from below and stuff, they only really work when you are a lot better than your opponent.

Good point, but there's also a numbers bias. More people attempt the more common subs in the first place. I'd like to see a breakdown of success rate per attempt. The gimmicky subs are also subs that people don't drill as often in training, or attempt as often in matches.

 

[Drew Foster]

I think if anything, ADCC should be an argument that the IBJJF should allow reaping and heel hooks, since clearly the top guys are hip to that game and seem fine with those rules.

Not only that, but from what I saw everyone tapped on time and I don't know if I even saw anyone limping afterwards. It didn't look like there were any injuries at all.

 

[tap21]

I get it, you're trying (quite transparently) to make a point that is consistent with your views on grappling. I just like calling people on their biases when they're trying to make it look like a neutral analysis. Leg locks are undoubtedly effective, even more so when there are fewer consequences (i.e. sections of the match without points). It's not 1997, nobody thinks that leg locks are the devil anymore.

I think it's important to distinguish here between analysis and presentation of data. I didn't really analyze anything. In both 2011 and 2013, I just compiled the numbers and presented them to the grappling community. You're disagreeing with the way I presented the numbers in 2011.

But in 2013, I just showed leglocks vs everything else. If anything, that created a smaller leglock number versus a bigger "everthing else" number, which would cut against the bias you are accusing me of. I then specifically broke it down to each submission.

I kind of think you have been looking at the 2011 numbers and thinking they are the 2013 numbers.

 

[tap21]

You're counting the gable grip RNC as different?

I am still counting it as an RNC. I just added the detail about the grip.

 

[Spazzmaster]

People sleep really hard on Rader's ability to endure punishing foot locks. Miyao had him in a couple gnarly toe holds and heel hooks. At one point Lovato from the corner even said "Rader doesn't tap."

Cobrinha had Rader in a couple heel hooks and beyond that, sort of a heel hook / calf slicer combo that looked absolutely nauseating.

Holy shit at those pic. I like Rader's game a lot, but fuck emulating that. My knees hurt just looking at those screen grabs. These high level competitors really are committed to winning at any cost. Not me!

 

[GoGrapple]

Here is a more detailed breakdown from 2011 that shows Submission by weight class and if the technique was initiated from top or bottom don't have one for 2013 yet.

 

[No1 Stunna]

love the debates and breakdowns guys thanks

rambo makes good point that it would be interesting to see what the % of submission attempts that resulted in a submission from each sub, but that would take tons of time to put together, another thing would be good to see what sweeps were used as well as what guard passes, and while I have a wish list what takedowns were used.

It is true that basic subs are secured more often because more people go for them, but I think there is a reason for that. If everyone started going for boston crabs for example, I don't expect to see anyone landing a boston crab in adcc.

Also stats like this go mean much less when subs are getting chained together to get a tap.

 

[Spazzmaster]

Very good list of what actually finishes good competitors. So many submissions are "gym specials," but they don't actually work against guys at a high level in grappling competition ... and to my mind you are pretty much wasting your time training them. This is the stuff that actually works.

17 wins by leglock
8 wins by armbar
6 wins by guillotine
5 wins by RNC
4 wins by triangle
1 win by D'Arce

I have less and less patience for weird gym tricks when it comes to grappling. Btw, there are a couple moves ... like omoplata and kimura ... that you are unlikely to finish anybody with, but are great for transitioning to a more dominant position and then a real submission. But most submissions are a bunch of hocus pocus that ends up sacrificing control and positioning advantage for a fantasy.

Very thought-provoking insight. But controversial! Should we really only train the highest percentage submissions and ignore everything else?

How do you account for guys like Magid Hage beating high level competitors with his baseball choke from bottom? Or Marcelo Garcia reliably using his north-south choke at Mundials & ADCC?

 

[Spazzmaster]

Here is a more detailed breakdown from 2011 that shows Submission by weight class and if the technique was initiated from top or bottom don't have one for 2013 yet.

So much number crunching! It's like Moneyball for BJJ. Cool

 

[Shemhazai]

Side choke and arm triangle almost never works in high-level grappling comp, IMO. It is useful against outmatched opponents, which is why you will see it in MMA. But even though I think it is very close to being viable ... and therefore not a waste of time ... it just isn't really high percentage when two guys are very, very closely matched. I have never caught anybody with the side triangle who was not significantly less advanced as a grappler. I certainly can't threaten guys who are better than me with it, the way I can with a heelhook, triangle, armbar, guillotine, etc. You have to really be dominating the guy to get them to work reliably. That at any rate is my experience, and I think it's borne out by its rarity in high-level grappling competition.

The one arm triangle you will reliably see hit at a high level is the darce from top position, and that's because you can really smash your opponent with position. Again, when it's just a "trick", like rolling darces or darces from below and stuff, they only really work when you are a lot better than your opponent.

I think if more people start using the no gi back Ezekiel (as taught by Hall), we'll see just as many finishes by that as by brabo/D'Arce, as it's essentially the same choke, and can be finished in the same manner, just with the opponent facing the other way.

Also, as a result of this threat, more people will probably give up the standard kata gatame while defending.

How do you account for guys like Magid Hage beating high level competitors with his baseball choke from bottom? Or Marcelo Garcia reliably using his north-south choke at Mundials & ADCC?

I think everyone would agree that the NS choke is high percentage, there just weren't any attempts this ADCC (that I saw). As for the baseball bat choke from bottom, I think it can be considered high percentage if you get past the setup stage, but you need to be a specialist, and it's positionally very risky.

 

[SuperSuperRambo]

Not only that, but from what I saw everyone tapped on time and I don't know if I even saw anyone limping afterwards. It didn't look like there were any injuries at all.

The only one that is a possible injury would be that I think one of Dean Lister's heel hooks came on quick any may have caused a minor injury. But I didn't watch it, so I'm just going off my memory of the PBP. But you're right, no serious injuries.

 

[SuperSuperRambo]

rambo makes good point that it would be interesting to see what the % of submission attempts that resulted in a submission from each sub, but that would take tons of time to put together

I agree, and on top of time, it would be very hard to do. I mean, how do you know when someone is really committing to an attempt? How do you judge a RNC attempt when someone has the back? Every time he tries to get the forearm under the chin? Every time he actually gets it under the chin? It would be very subjective.

And then on top of that, even if we had someone measure attempts versus finishes, it still wouldn't tell the whole story of the "most effective" submissions, because there are other factors.

For example, when you evaluate the "gimmicky" submissions versus the "tried and true" submissions, you also want to look at risk versus reward. If you initiate a leg lock from bottom, even if the type of entry has a low percentage of success, there might be no risk at all because you're already on bottom and unlikely to get your guard passed if you fail. However if you attempt an armbar from guard, and fail, your opponent might be in a decent position to pass. If you fail on an armbar from mount, you probably just lost a dominant position. So maybe these subs are attempted less frequently as a result, and maybe that makes it less of a "good" sub even if it's high percentage, because of the risk.

Likewise with the RNC. Sure, 9 times out of 10 of the time you try to drive your arm around the neck for the choke, you don't get it. But it's so low risk. If you don't get under the chin, you're still on his back, and you can just go to the other arm and try. So it's so low risk that you can "attempt" it 10 times, and you only need one of those attempts to work in order to finish.

So it's interesting to look at the numbers of what works and what doesn't work, but there are other things to consider when you're evaluating what the best submissions are. And sweeps too (i.e. berimbolo you might have to try 10 times to get, but it's so hard to pass, so low risk), and takedowns, and passes, etc.

 

[Mike Piekarski]

With the debate of submissions and gimmick submissions I think there will always be outliers. Yes Magid Hage makes his choke work, MG makes the north-south choke work but that is competitor specific. Zankou's argument was those gimmick submissions are not drilled enough to be high percentage but there are techniques that a specific person may drill enough to make work at higher levels. Look at Clark Gracie's use of the omoplata, granted he generally finishes with the collar choke opposed to the shoulder lock.

Very interesting debate though. Convinced me to work on my leg locks last practice.

 

[Drew Foster]

Holy shit at those pic. I like Rader's game a lot, but fuck emulating that. My knees hurt just looking at those screen grabs. These high level competitors really are committed to winning at any cost. Not me!

Honestly man there were moments where it looked even gnarlier than that. I just screenshotted a couple pics real quick, but when the movement was going on, it looked twice as gross. Then LATER in the match Cobrinha got a 2nd heel hook which looked pretty awful too. Rader is a tough sumbitch.