A settled perspective on Ank–Poatan (and a guest appearance of Jiri)

[Rubios]

I’m wrong more often than not. But the analysis that took hold after the first fight never made sense, IMHO.
Unless Alex had suddenly aged overnight (which was plausible), all the supposed keys to Ankalaev’s victory just didn’t add up.

Regarding the takedowns: if Ank got Alex to the ground, his GnP could definitely put him in serious trouble. That said: does he have better wrestling and grappling than Jiri? I don't think so.

As a fighter keeps successfully defending TDs (up to TWELVE, not counting the desperate single leg in the rematch), and as long as he’s not facing a submission artist like Oliveira, Khamzat or Islam, i.e., any striker will start letting their hands and kicks go for the last minute and a half or so of each round.
That’s already around 6 minutes before the final round.

Ank is a southpaw. So are Khalil and Hill. And Jiri switches stance about 73,486 times.
Hand fighting: why was Ank’s hand fighting supposedly far superior to that of two fighters with a traditional pure Thai base like Khalil, Jiri... or Pereira himself?
His almost Soviet-style (quick in-and-outs, composed, defensively responsible...)
Poatan has fought Vakhitov twice (1–1).

Khalil has cardio issues, so I’ll leave him out of the conversation. But Jiri is a MUCH bigger offensive threat than Ank. His wrestling is at least on par, and he’s better on the ground.

Pereira is (because Schilt never made a proper transition) the best striker we’ve ever seen in MMA. By a wide margin. Though, of course, he’s 38.
He’s used to being behind on the scorecards and having to finish in the last round. And to that round lasting just three minutes. Surviving five minutes with Alex in hunter mode is an eternity.

Alex only needed three low kicks to force Ank to switch stance. And the moment he did, he left a highway-wide opening for Pereira to land an overhand from another time zone. The fight ended there. The last 20 seconds were unnecessary.

Does that mean I think that’s the skill gap between Alex and Ank? That he lasts a minute?
No. If they fought ten times, Ank would take him down and finish him with GnP in some of them, or leave him badly hurt for the rest of the fight.
But if Alex manages to keep most of the fight standing (and 12 defended takedowns isn’t a small sample), the difference in level is too huge to overcome.

When Pereira vacates the belt, the division belongs to Jiri.

 

[jeff7b9]

Leg kicks > Orthodox
Orthodox = much less distance between fighters
Closer range = over hand right lands
Overhand right = game over.

 

[humdizzle]

Hard to say how another fight would go. Ank has never really shown elite TDs... even in the first fight when he was cruising to a win he never mixed it up other than some cage stalling. Against Jan i think it was an age factor where he just out cardio'd him to a TD and kept him there.

I do agree that Jiri probably gets the belt back if alex leaves. The guy has too many physical advantages over others (cardio, chin, unorthodox style). alex is the only one that never caved into his chaotic style and had the power and timing to stop him.

 

[Thy]

Only thing i've learned from mma over the years is to not make predictions, and just enjoy watching the fights.

 

[JBJ was here]

Leg kicks > Orthodox
Orthodox = much less distance between fighters
Closer range = over hand right lands
Overhand right = game over.

It's more that when Ankalaev switched stances he didn't adjust his guard. His reaction in the fight was to shoot the right hand up to protect the head and keep the left hand lower, ready to punch, which is fine when the right rand is in front and you have that extra moment to react if you need to use the left hand to block. But when Poatan threw the overhand right it was past Ankalaev's shoulder before his left hand even started to budge and his right hand couldn't get across with any kind of power sufficient to block. Ank completely failed to meaningfully attempt to block the punch that decided the fight, couldn't move back, was poorly positioned to circle out, and didn't move his head much. Giving Poatan an undefended head shot is never a good idea.

It looked like Ank had a game plan built around fighting from a southpaw stance, trained it really hard, and confused himself when he switched stances.

 

[Nobru]

alex trained tdd with aldo in secret

they are all doomed until father time decides

 

[jeff7b9]

It's more that when Ankalaev switched stances he didn't adjust his guard. His reaction in the fight was to shoot the right hand up to protect the head and keep the left hand lower, ready to punch, which is fine when the right rand is in front and you have that extra moment to react if you need to use the left hand to block. But when Poatan threw the overhand right it was past Ankalaev's shoulder before his left hand even started to budge and his right hand couldn't get across with any kind of power sufficient to block. Ank completely failed to meaningfully attempt to block the punch that decided the fight, couldn't move back, was poorly positioned to circle out, and didn't move his head much. Giving Poatan an undefended head shot is never a good idea.

It looked like Ank had a game plan built around fighting from a southpaw stance, trained it really hard, and confused himself when he switched stances.

Stance switch chances everything.

Distance
Angles
Vision
Weapons
Defense

Ankalaev is a southpaw. He isn't accustomed to SEEING that strike from that stance and I don't think he really saw it coming until it was too late, hence the flinch reflex but not a shoulder roll, parry, etc.


Against the fence = no option to retreat

That was checkmate.

The pressure put Ank on his back foot, taking away his offensive threat and rendering him defensive. That was high risk but it worked.

I was curious because Alex (allegedly, but apparently not) running a marathon or a half marathon less than 2 weeks prior to the fight seemed really dumb... but maybe he never planned on fighting 25 minutes. Maybe the gameplan was.to go in guns blazing, use "the best defense is more offense" high pressure approach and just hunt.

 

[Mr.Maelstrom]

It was some speedrun shit, highly impressive.


Even if you were picking Poatan to win, it probably wasn't like that

 

[Tweak896]

I'm not fully convinced, but Ankalaev is a clown and has horrible IQ. Pretty sure he has more weapons and wins boring decisions if they kept rematching. Still don't give a fuck. Ankalaev's chin isn't as good as I thought, but with his grappling and striking he's a huge problem for Alex. It was too early of a fight for me to say Alex solved the Ank problem, seemed more like Cain/JDS in reverse, but I'll take it. I accept Bisping's KO over Rockhold too.

 

[Jackonfire]

It was some speedrun shit, highly impressive.


Even if you were picking Poatan to win, it probably wasn't like that

True. I thought it would be a 2nd round KO, not 1st.

 

[Bobby Boulders]

How did Schilt not make a proper transition? What do you mean?

 

[laleggenda27]

It's more that when Ankalaev switched stances he didn't adjust his guard. His reaction in the fight was to shoot the right hand up to protect the head and keep the left hand lower, ready to punch, which is fine when the right rand is in front and you have that extra moment to react if you need to use the left hand to block. But when Poatan threw the overhand right it was past Ankalaev's shoulder before his left hand even started to budge and his right hand couldn't get across with any kind of power sufficient to block. Ank completely failed to meaningfully attempt to block the punch that decided the fight, couldn't move back, was poorly positioned to circle out, and didn't move his head much. Giving Poatan an undefended head shot is never a good idea.

It looked like Ank had a game plan built around fighting from a southpaw stance, trained it really hard, and confused himself when he switched stances.

Stance switch chances everything.

Distance
Angles
Vision
Weapons
Defense

Ankalaev is a southpaw. He isn't accustomed to SEEING that strike from that stance and I don't think he really saw it coming until it was too late, hence the flinch reflex but not a shoulder roll, parry, etc.


Against the fence = no option to retreat

That was checkmate.

The pressure put Ank on his back foot, taking away his offensive threat and rendering him defensive. That was high risk but it worked.

I was curious because Alex running a marathon or a half marathon less than 2 weeks prior to the fight seemed really dumb... but maybe he never planned on fighting 25 minutes. Maybe the gameplan was.to go in guns blazing, use "the best defense is more offense" high pressure approach and just hunt.

The biggest issue with the stance switch was Ankalaev's footwork. He committed the cardinal sin of crossing your feet, and Alex threw the overhand right as Ankalaev was uncrossing them. Ankalaev's feet still weren't set by the time Alex's punch landed. And Ankalaev was actually trying to land a check hook in that exchange, but good luck doing that when your feet aren't set.

 

[WhiteMousse]

This post is brought to you by Shred, the official cheese grater of the UFC

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Whoever comes in at over 50% wins the trilogy

 

[Ozze]

Stance switch chances everything.

Distance
Angles
Vision
Weapons
Defense

Ankalaev is a southpaw. He isn't accustomed to SEEING that strike from that stance and I don't think he really saw it coming until it was too late, hence the flinch reflex but not a shoulder roll, parry, etc.


Against the fence = no option to retreat

That was checkmate.

The pressure put Ank on his back foot, taking away his offensive threat and rendering him defensive. That was high risk but it worked.

I was curious because Alex running a marathon or a half marathon less than 2 weeks prior to the fight seemed really dumb... but maybe he never planned on fighting 25 minutes. Maybe the gameplan was.to go in guns blazing, use "the best defense is more offense" high pressure approach and just hunt.

He did not run a marathon. They were talking about another time he did it.

 

[jeff7b9]

He did not run a marathon. They were talking about another time he did it.

Any more info on that?

I could have sworn I saw it (mis) represented as though he had run a half marathon or a marathon within 2 weeks of the fight.


Presumably on here

 

[Ozze]

Any more info on that?

I could have sworn I saw it (mis) represented as though he had run a half marathon or a marathon within 2 weeks of the fight.


Presumably on here

Yeah, in the video where they talk about it, when they are running in the desert, during the talk Plinio says "one time" Poatan ran those 42k.
It was in São Paulo, he even talks about the polluted river (there's a running track along the river here).

Of course it doesn't help that Poatan's media team labeled the video "Poatan ran 42km unprepared - UFC 320".
But in the description they say: "In the video, Poatan recalls the unique experience of completing a 42 km marathon without any prior preparation, demonstrating the mentality and endurance that accompany him inside and outside the octagon."

 

[jeff7b9]

Yeah, in the video where they talk about it, when they are running in the desert, during the talk Plinio says "one time" Poatan ran those 42k.
It was in São Paulo, he even talks about the polluted river (there's a running track along the river here).

Of course it doesn't help that Poatan's media team labeled the video "Poatan ran 42km unprepared - UFC 320".
But in the description they say: "In the video, Poatan recalls the unique experience of completing a 42 km marathon without any prior preparation, demonstrating the mentality and endurance that accompany him inside and outside the octagon."

Cool thanks for the explanation.

Wherever I saw it, on here I think, I got the impression it was something he just did.

That makes more sense.

 

[HHJ]

How did Schilt not make a proper transition? What do you mean?

Schilt was a full on MMA fighter BEFORE he went to K-1.

He went on to BECOME a all time great kickboxer AFTER his MMA career.

So to say that Schilt was or would have been the "best" striker ever in MMA but "didnt make a proper transition" is false.

 

[Rubios]

You're right, I didn't know he had a Pancrase run before K-1. Thanks!
Let's say he is for sure a top 3 HW KB all time that didn't accomplish anything truly remarkable in MMA.

Alex should be 25ish (some people put him even higher, others a bit lower) ATG @ KB, already a GLORY HoF and its only double champ as for now.
8 title fight wins, six defenses.

Double champ and 6 title fight wins so far in the UFC.