Elections 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucus Thread

[Lead]

Real Clear Politics
FiveThirtyEight Live Updates
Incoming Results

CBS Coverage


The race begins tonight and there are statistically high stakes here for the winner

Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 55% success rate at predicting which Democrat, and a 43% success rate at predicting which Republican will go on to win the nomination of their political party for president at that party's national convention

In seven of the last nine competitive Democratic primaries, the candidate who placed first in the Iowa caucuses went on to become the party's presidential nominee.

Past Winners

• 1972 (January 24): "Uncommitted" (36%), Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
• 1976 (January 19): "Uncommitted" (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
• 1980 (January 21): Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)
• 1984 (February 20): Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)
• 1988 (February 8): Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
• 1992 (February 10): Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)
• 1996 (February 12): Bill Clinton (98%), "Uncommitted" (1%), and Ralph Nader (1%)
• 2000 (January 24): Al Gore (63%), and Bill Bradley (37%)
• 2004 (January 19): John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
• 2008 (January 3): Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), and Joe Biden (1%)[35]
• 2012 (January 3): Barack Obama (98%), and "Uncommitted" (2%)[24]
• 2016 (February 1): Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%), and Martin O'Malley (0.5%) [36][37]
• 2020 (February 3): TBA

 

[Happy Man]

May it be the first of many defeats for ol angry Joe Biden.

 

[Joe]

If biden doesn't win. He won't have wins or any money. Could be out before south Carolina

 

[Lead]

You can view incoming results here
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa?xid=ec_state_iowa_d

 

[Lead]

Is no one else pumped for this? Primary season is on par with the World Cup more me

 

[Lead]

@Clippy

GTFIH and get excited

 

[Clippy]

@Clippy

GTFIH and get excited

Oahhhhhhhhh I'm so excited

Look at mego


Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[Lead]

Oahhhhhhhhh I'm so excited

Look at mego


Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

FUCK YEA CLIPPY. IOWA! CAUCUSES! YEA!

 

[Clippy]

FUCK YEA CLIPPY. IOWA! CAUCUSES! YEA!

 

[LC Shepard]

Delanay by split decision

 

[Sakurabaism]

 

[Trotsky]

Dark horse Michael Bennett currently in first

 

[sickc0d3r]

I predict Bernie will take the first alignment. Interested in seeing how the second plays out, and also turnout. Looking like it could approach 2008 Obama level.

 

[bobgeese]

Initial entrance polls show a slightly older, more moderate/conservative group of voters showing up.

Via msnbc

 

[Lead]

I predict Bernie will take the first alignment. Interested in seeing how the second plays out, and also turnout. Looking like it could approach 2008 Obama level.

I’m wondering who drops out with a bad showing too. Like will Klobuchar or Pete drop if they don’t make 3

 

[Couch Ninja]

I’m wondering who drops out with a bad showing too. Like will Klobuchar or Pete drop if they don’t make 3

Klobuchar's having too much fun throwing staplers at her staff and eating salads with combs to drop out

 

[bobgeese]

Pete in 2nd among youngest voters. Interesting

 

[bobgeese]

2% more young people
6% more 65+

Than last election

 

[Couch Ninja]

I was legit trying to watch the coverage on CNN and MSNBC, but they both make my eyeballs bleed and my hair fall out. I just can't take it

Sad when you have to get your political information/news coverage from sherdog, but oh well...

 

[bobgeese]

Watching msnbc, smoking meth.