Elections 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucus Thread

[SBJJ]

Iowa and NH aren't the areas Pete needs to be worried about and they never were. He's still polling 7% nationally. Good luck getting African Americans to vote on a gay man.

I'm not worried about the general. This is about eliminating Bernie

Posters were trying to spin this corrupt crap as a win for Bernie and loss for Pete. Meanwhile Pete is now tied with Bernie in NH

 

[Trotsky]

This was really good and on point from Seder in re self dealing and resulting priority over the public good being, somehow, the most benign possible explanation.

 

[Stranger_Foreigner]

I'm not worried about the general. This is about eliminating Bernie

Posters were trying to spin this corrupt crap as a win for Bernie and loss for Pete. Meanwhile Pete is now tied with Bernie in NH

It's the expectations game. Overrated "experts" like Nate Silver put too much stock in low-quality polls and were surprised that a third-place candidate finished in first. Meanwhile, Sanders met expectations but did not exceed them.

The flip side is that Biden is dead now. The expectation was a close 2nd but he came in a distant fourth.

Basically, the best thing for a candidate in a close race is to overperform expectations.

 

[SBJJ]

It's the expectations game. Overrated "experts" like Nate Silver put too much stock in low-quality polls and were surprised that a third-place candidate finished in first. Meanwhile, Sanders met expectations but did not exceed them.

The flip side is that Biden is dead now. The expectation was a close 2nd but he came in a distant fourth.

Basically, the best thing for a candidate in a close race is to overperform expectations.

And who is helped by the collapse of Biden.

Do his voters move to Pete or to Bernie. We all know the answer.

The winner from this shitstorm is Pete

 

[japman40]

And who is helped by the collapse of Biden.

Do his voters move to Pete or to Bernie. We all know the answer.

The winner from this shitstorm is Pete

Pete doesn't have any support from minorities, so after New Hampshire he's done. The biggest winner is Bernie because Biden performed so bad and he was the main challenger for Bernie.

 

[Stranger_Foreigner]

And who is helped by the collapse of Biden.

Do his voters move to Pete or to Bernie. We all know the answer.

The winner from this shitstorm is Pete

Yeah but the media or the DNC didn't cause Biden to be a weak candidate. The pollsters screwed up and underestimated Buttigieg's support and overestimated Biden's . I was out there in person days before the caucus and also observed a caucus. Butt's organization is impressive out there. Sanders just met expectations. He had support but it skewed heavily toward the young. Biden's organization was crap. He didn't even have a precinct captain in our precinct, even though we were in a major population center.

 

[Fawlty]

And who is helped by the collapse of Biden.

That's not such a straightforward question, actually. National surveys say the answer is Sanders, while Iowa primary results suggest that for Iowans, it was Pete followed by Sanders. However, Iowa is not America. We'll see.

 

[Happy Man]

I hate Bloomberg. But why is it that he is a globalist and Trump isn't? Is it because you're a retard and don't know what the fuck globalist means?

Globalists are neoliberal.

they are pro war always. Pro open borders. Pro open markets “free trade” no tariffs.

 

[Arkain2K]

Yeah but the media or the DNC didn't cause Biden to be a weak candidate. The pollsters screwed up and underestimated Buttigieg's support and overestimated Biden's . I was out there in person days before the caucus and also observed a caucus. Butt's organization is impressive out there. Sanders just met expectations. He had support but it skewed heavily toward the young. Biden's organization was crap. He didn't even have a precinct captain in our precinct, even though we were in a major population center.

Sounds like Biden is repeating a certain 2016 establishment candidate's hubris, thinking he doesn't have to try hard since the national polls says he already has it in the bag.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Sounds like Biden is repeating a certain 2016 establishment candidate's hubris, thinking he doesn't have to try hard since the national polls says he already has it in the bag.

Also following a similar game plan devised by his team to stay out of the limelight because the candidate’s own image /words are a danger to their candidacy.

 

[Islam Imamate]

Yeah, kind of like how Republican voters all became Democrats when they found out that even though the GOP had the majorities to repeal Obamacare, they wouldn't because they had no plan at all and it was empty squealing all along. Or how Trump couldn't really get Mexico to pay for the wall. Or how Trump couldn't get even close to 5% growth. Or how Trump couldn't jail Hillary Clinton. Or how Trumo couldn't increase the demand for coal.

Etc.

Difference is Democrats care more about policy whereas Trump fans care about "winning, winning, winning" which means whatever Trump says it means at the time. Remember Obama really did disappoint many progressives with his more centrist leadership whereas Trump fans have either forgotten or never really cared about him delivering on his campaign promises despite the fact that Trump promised a lot more and delivered less.

So I do actually think that an inability to deliver on policy would hurt Bernie more than Trump. Sad but possibly true.

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

Surprise surprise. The DNC is rigging the game against Bernie again.

 

[franklinstower]

delete