GNN Reports: Odds for candidates to advance to next round of voting
@luckyshot - 88%
Although luckyshot currently holds a smaller share of the overall polled votes than Cubo de Sangre, his support is much more firmly grounded than the embattled front runner. While de Sangre has suffered considerable losses to right-wing rival JamesRussler, luckyshot has consolidated left and center-left support through his Sanity Party base.
@Cubo de Sangre - 82.5%
Cubo de Sangre continues to lead in the polls and is very likely to advance to the next round of voting. However, his support has appeared increasingly vulnerable in the past two weeks. While ridding the field of rivals snakedafunky and Clippy will surely increase his vote share, his most pressing concern is our next candidate.
@JamesRussler - 59.5%
Russler has become the talk of the town with his recent campaign ads, slogans, and videos. His recent appointment of Contradictator to his Vice President spot could help him increase his chances to advance to the next round of voting, but the VP's lack of appeal to anything but the far-right could also short-circuit his campaign from progressing further.
@Hunter Simpson - 38%
Like Lowmanproblem, Simpson suffers from luckyshot's existence in this race and he will struggle to secure the necessary left and center-left votes to advance to the next round. However, if he does, he will immediately become a strong candidate to advance further, as he will likely benefit greatly as second option for voters of candidates like Lowmanproblems, Tobacco, and snakedafunky. Additionally, in the unlikely scenario that left-wing leader luckyshot fails to advance and Simpson succeeds, he could quickly become a better's favorite to take the election. Should both candidates advance, it could spell trouble for both of their tickets.
@Clippy - 36%
Clippy is perhaps the oddest candidate in the race. He lacks a clear message, a well-known running mate, an established history on the sub-forum, or a clear place on the forum's political spectrum. However, he may have a place on the autism spectrum - and frankly, that's adorable. His rapport with posters across the political divide, his strong name recognition, and his palatable campaign strategy make him a surprisingly viable candidate to advance.
@Lowmanproblems - 29.5%
Lowmanproblems has a high floor and a low-to-intermediate ceiling that depends almost entirely on how effective his recent move to the center and his choice of Vice President is with voters. While Lowmanproblems' current polling numbers are underwhelming, advanced analytics show that his ticket enjoys unique support as a second option to voters across the race, making his single-digit polling numbers somewhat deceiving. He will win a certain amount of anti-Trump voters and posters otherwise admiring of his aggressive and full-throated political style. Like Hunter SImpson, he will suffer from luckyshot's consolidation of the left and center-left vote. But without Hunter Simpson's favorability with Sanity Party members and without the friendly forum rapport of posters like Tobacco and Clippy, he may struggle to sufficiently pick up votes at the margins, except through the influence of his running mate. Time will only tell, but it could turn out that his trademark sizzle will be a millstone on his success and on the perceived sincerity of his centrist campaign.
@Tobacco - 27%
After Clippy, Tobacco may be the second hardest result to predict. Loved by some and likely by nearly all, Tobacco is himself a strong candidate. However, he has ran a flawed campaign. In addition to failing to select a running mate, his campaign message has been inconsistent and at times incoherent. Although he is currently polling higher than Lowmanproblems, one has to think these campaign gaffes will come home to roost.
@snakedafunky - 19%
Had snakedafunky chosen to run a more traditional and rigorous campaign, he'd likely be in a strong position to proceed further. However, the wily veteran made the baffling choice to run a novelty campaign and then welsh almost entirely on his campaign responsibilities during the latter half of the round. While the "plus" analysis bumps up his chances and is reflected in his present odds, expecting more than a single-digit vote share seems unreasonably optimistic given his recent inactivity.
@Headkicktoleg - 17%
Headkicktoleg has ran an admirable campaign: enthusiastic, fearless, and hopeful. However, Cubo de Sangre's early locking up of center-right support, combined with JamesRussler's recent far-right blitzkrieg, has created an uphill battle that will be very difficult to overcome for the candidate. He still has a chance, though, owing to the continued complacency of de Sangre and the undeniable possibility of a late-game boner by JamesRussler. If he wants to advance, he'll need to work hard on election day.
@Slick_36 - 5%
Well, this was disappointing. While slick_36 enjoys resilient support from a small portion of the electorate, he has done very little to parlay that foundation into a more viable campaign. He will receive some votes, but success is earned and he simply hasn't put in the legwork to give himself more than a hail mary's chance to advance to the next round.
@leto1776 - <1%
Leto1776 recently withdrew his name from consideration. While this would seem to suggest he should be excluded from our analysis entirely, he could still rescind his withdrawal and give himself a one-in-a-million shot to advance. Here at GNN, we don't discount miracles - and leto1776 would certainly need one.
