Three Fifty Three Round 3 Predictions
With our last article, we brought you some key characteristics of the voter base for 2018. With Round 3 only a day away now, 353 will present to you a glimpse of the candidates, their campaigns, and our current analysis of who makes it to the second ballot.
@luckyshot 92% chance on reaching second ballot
-Firmly establishing the coalition former President
@HomerThompson controlled in 2017, lucky stands in clear position to not only gain enough votes to qualify for the second ballot but also begin crafting a general election message and campaign plan to win it all. The network was firmly in place even from round 1 as we could see the campaign jump into full gear registering past year supporters. Additionally, the campaign appears to be running unopposed to a direct competitor for the left wing. With the closest being
@Lowmanproblems, a former member of the administration, it appears his positioning closer to the center and lucky's lack of harsh words show this is seen as less of a threat and more of a possible partnership that will soon come together again.
@Cubo de Sangre 85% chance of reaching second ballot
-Despite being a new contender to this years election, the Cubo campaign has checked every box off to be seen as a serious contender not only for the primaries but possibly the general election. Securing a well-experienced VP familiar with running a 3rd party campaign previously with @pcptornado, the Cubo campaign initially laid ground work for their unique vision of a campaign to the Presidency. The campaign also seemed to be well funded and poised from the beginning to run ad campaigns and deliver the message they wanted to project. The concerns at this early stage are minimally but ones that could grow as the race continues. With a centrist campaign, Cubo has to walk a fine line in securing whatever coalition he's built from being poached on either side of the spectrum.
@JamesRussler 67% chance of reaching second ballot
-What seemingly was a spur of the moment decision to campaign slowly morphed into the face of a serious candidate filling the right wing power vacuum. His announcement of the right's longtime respected
@Ripskater only further solidified a strong push from obscure candidate to a campaign that one could fathom in the general election. The vastly strong media campaign against other candidates hasn't hurt either.
@Lowmanproblems 50% chance of reaching second ballot
-A competent and credible campaign that has been conflicted with running for a coalition he was once apart of; lowman sought out a more centrist campaign message that unexpectedly got deafened by multiple candidates doing the same. With little options present than the ones he has taken advantage of, it's uncertain whether this will be enough to move on to the second ballot. The make-up of the 2018 landscape appears to have worked against him but none-the-less, the campaign still stays in full swing in trying to win.
@Hunter Simpson 47% chance of reaching second ballot
-His campaign for our analysis has become an odd duck to make a call on. It seems easy to write the campaign off as we can't point to the group of voters being sought out but his coalition does seem to be intact, which ultimately might be all one needs to make it to the fourth spot on the second ballot. His campaign hasn't been shy to play off the resemblance of former President
@HomerThompson though their style and demeanor are nothing alike. This may be our 1st ballot dark horse.
@Clippy 33% chance of reaching second ballot
-This is the strongest and most active campaign we have seen from Clippy in the three years he's run and with his high favor-ability rating from multi-forum citizens, he cannot be counted out for a strong showing that possibly gets him 3rd or 4th amount of votes. Like prior campaigns, we question both the campaign staffing decisions and the clear call for illegal voters which has been a downfall in the past. While he isn't the strongest bet, he has enough name recognition forum-wide to be taken seriously in the primary round.
@Headkicktoleg 9% chance of reaching second ballot
-Our short staffed agency is guilty of not following this campaign as much as we should have. Maybe that has left a blind spot for the possibilities here but at the moment we do not see viability here.
@snakedafunky 9% chance of reaching second ballot
-A veteran to this race that went for a change in tone this year but didn't find the fire he once had with his previous message. This led to a period of ambiguity and then irrelevance. The funky campaign appears to know another year is lost but the ambition of running a 1000 year worth of campaigns.
@Tobacco 6% chance of reaching second ballot
-A friendly and laid back campaign has shown to reap little results for the one-time know CEROVFC. Whether it being the rebranding that took an initial hit to his name recognition or a lack of positioning to gather a key group of voters, the campaign is likely to be looking from the outside by the second ballot.
@leto1776 2% chance of reaching second ballot
-Initially looked to secure the front runner position of the right but has been significantly outdone by rival candidate JamesRussler in both staffing and ads. Though very few public exchanges have occurred between the two campaigns, their fates have become intertwined with leto being condemned to the 1st ballot candidate cemetery.
@Slick_36 0% chance of reaching second ballot
-What seemed to be a possible PR stunt or a way of gauging interest, the Slick campaign has all but end operations before voting has begun. A few speeches were given but nothing at this point warrants enough credit for a first ballot success.
