Elections 2018 Midterms: Polls, predictions and results.

[foxnoob]

I'm on D + ~35 for the House, 0-+1 for Senate(-Heitkampp, +Rose and Sinema, Nelson and McCaskill hold onto seat), and D's up to 22 Governorships from I think 16 right now? Including a crucial win for Gillum in Florida which will eventually propel him to POTUS in 2024. Kemp wins GA imo, that state hates how black it really is.

Let's get these investigations fired up by Thanksgiving. Let's get full exposure on the shenanigans Nunez was able to pull during his brief time as chair.

The D wins will be directly attributable to a distaste for Trump's brand of politics.

 

[Quipling]

I am wondering if Trump strategy of not loosing to badly will work out.
He obviously decided a few weeks ago that he can limit his losses by getting as many of his base out as possible.

Instead of trying to win. With a real campaign. Which he could have also done because of his economic numbers.
As of right now, I think it is going to work out and the Republicans will only lose the house (or was it Senat)?

House is more vulnerable.

 

[Ripskater]

 

[foxnoob]

"the party that freed the slaves" is a phrase exclusively used by people who refuse to acknowledge the mass party switch in response to the '64 Civil Rights act.

 

[kpt018]

There's as much chance of that as I have of nailing Jennifer Lawrence

Not even the Dems can fail to win big this time.

538 has the Dems chance of winning the House at 87.4% and Reps keeping the Senate 83.6%.

Assuming these odds are in the ballpark they're good for the House but not astronomical. And to me, a miserable defeat would be losing seats in the Senate and gaining seats in the House but still having the minority.

 

[Seano]

While I'm glad that black people are waking up to how they've been exploited by the left for so long, the first line of that story is over the top and went off in a direction I hoped it wouldn't. The first line was a give away- The party that freed the slaves continues to liberate black Americans today.

No one alive today "freed the slaves." No party today resembles what it did when slavery was a common thing around the states. Focus on what is being done TODAY. Focus on the social issues people face TODAY.

 

[zebby23]

While I'm glad that black people are waking up to how they've been exploited by the left for so long, the first line of that story is over the top and went off in a direction I hoped it wouldn't. The first line was a give away- The party that freed the slaves continues to liberate black Americans today.

No one alive today "freed the slaves." No party today resembles what it did when slavery was a common thing around the states. Focus on what is being done TODAY. Focus on the social issues people face TODAY.

I agree we should focus on today’s issues like closing polling places in predominantly black neighborhoods. Gerrymandering so republicans can continue to cheat their way to elections.

These are the issues we should and will be focusing on!!

 

[Seano]

I agree we should focus on today’s issues like closing polling places in predominantly black neighborhoods. Gerrymandering so republicans can continue to cheat their way to elections.

These are the issues we should and will be focusing on!!

Sure. Make a thread.

 

[RockstarChris]

the more the media tells me democrats are winning the more hope slips through their fingers

 

[TheBlondBomber]

Including a crucial win for Gillum in Florida which will eventually propel him to POTUS in 2024.

Lol. His entire career has been unremarkable. BA in PoliSci from Florida A&M, then mayor of a college town. He's from the Bernie Sanders school of never doing anything noteworthy besides getting elected and then thinking he's qualified to tell others what to do with their money.

He's the male version of the Cortez lady.

 

[RockstarChris]

The last time i had this feeling Donald Trump became the most powerful man in the world. I said from day 1 he would become President when he gave his mexican rapist speech. Why do i have to have dubs right now i cant say what i really think lol

 

[waiguoren]

And to me, a miserable defeat would be losing seats in the Senate and gaining seats in the House but still having the minority.

This is a far more likely result than N. Silver's site implies. His methodology is simplistic and he's way off on multiple House races. For an example, see my bet with @Jack V Savage, which settles tomorrow night.

 

[Joe]

NBC apologizing for airing trumps immigration ad and fox now pulling it

 

[Ripskater]

 

[zebby23]

Sure. Make a thread.

Nah. This one is fine. Thanks though

 

[KnightTemplar]

So when do we start claiming Russia hacked the Mid Terms?

 

[kpt018]

This is a far more likely result than N. Silver's site implies. His methodology is simplistic and he's way off on multiple House races. For an example, see my bet with @Jack V Savage, which settles tomorrow night.

I guess we'll see. I personally don't have anything that's more predictive than his models or know of anyone who does it better than they do.

Have you looked under the hood at 538? I'm curious how you know they're simplistic (not saying you're wrong btw, I don't know either way).

 

[LuchaBear]

So when do we start claiming Russia hacked the Mid Terms?

Fuck Russia, U.S republicans and democrats have already been accused

 

[waiguoren]

I guess we'll see. I personally don't have anything that's more predictive than his models or know of anyone who does it better than they do.

Have you looked under the hood at 538? I'm curious how you know they're simplistic (not saying you're wrong btw, I don't know either way).

Silver's model is heavily (almost exclusively) dependent on polls. Most House races have garbage polling. Garbage in, garbage out. Silver tries to compensate for this by using the generic ballot polling. That helps a bit, but creates a misleading narrative of homogeneity. This is clear in Silver's frequent framing of the House balance as a single-variable function of the generic ballot balance. It's absurd if you think about it a bit.

My bet with @Jack V Savage is an excellent illustration of this. When Jack and I made the bet, Silver's silly model said that Hill had a 72.5% chance of winning. My view is that Hill has approximately a 0% chance of winning. My model relies on several factors beyond the limited polling. We'll find out tomorrow who is correct.

 

[zebby23]

Lol. His entire career has been unremarkable. BA in PoliSci from Florida A&M, then mayor of a college town. He's from the Bernie Sanders school of never doing anything noteworthy besides getting elected and then thinking he's qualified to tell others what to do with their money.

He's the male version of the Cortez lady.

He may be your president one day