Elections 2018 Midterms: Polls, predictions and results.

I understand that the odds are still a little too shaky around losing the senate to ever admit publicly, but won’t everybody be real happy if Cruz loses? Just keeping his face off our screens for a couple years would be the best possible outcome tomorrow.
 
drstrangelov said:
I understand that the odds are still a little too shaky around losing the senate to ever admit publicly, but won’t everybody be real happy if Cruz loses? Just keeping his face off our screens for a couple years would be the best possible outcome tomorrow.
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Yes!! How can anyone support this guy?
 
drstrangelov said:
I understand that the odds are still a little too shaky around losing the senate to ever admit publicly, but won’t everybody be real happy if Cruz loses? Just keeping his face off our screens for a couple years would be the best possible outcome tomorrow.
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Cruz is the worst.

#1 He's a big condescending douche nozzle.

#2 He's Canadian. Actually make that #1.

#3 He looks like Eddie Munster after he grew up and became a :eek::eek::eek::eek:phile.

#4 He let Trump call his wife ugly to his face one week and then was out campaigning for Trump the next week.
 
zebby23 said:
Yes!! How can anyone support this guy?
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If it came down to his race for control of the Senate, of course you’d support him on partisan grounds, but the Dems aren’t taking the senate with or without Cruz, Trump supporters don’t like the guy, democrats don’t like the guy, he looks like a melted candle, just cut him loose.

Cruz should be a political operative, not a front man.
 
waiguoren said:
Silver's model is heavily (almost exclusively) dependent on polls. Most House races have garbage polling. Garbage in, garbage out. Silver tries to compensate for this by using the generic ballot polling. That helps a bit, but creates a misleading narrative of homogeneity. This is clear in Silver's frequent framing of the House balance as a single-variable function of the generic ballot balance. It's absurd if you think about it a bit.

My bet with @Jack V Savage is an excellent illustration of this. When Jack and I made the bet, Silver's silly model said that Hill had a 72.5% chance of winning. My view is that Hill has approximately a 0% chance of winning. My model relies on several factors beyond the limited polling. We'll find out tomorrow who is correct.
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So is that based on his reporting and discussion about his models? What you're saying certainly makes a lot of sense. I just don't follow 538 enough to understand the weeds of how they arrive at predictions.

Silver seems pretty transparent lately about uncertainty in his models too.

Good luck with your bet.
 
drstrangelov said:
If it came down to his race for control of the Senate, of course you’d support him on partisan grounds, but the Dems aren’t taking the senate with or without Cruz, Trump supporters don’t like the guy, democrats don’t like the guy, he looks like a melted candle, just cut him loose.

Cruz should be a political operative, not a front man.
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Well of course on partisan grounds I suppose but is he really the best they can come up with? He would be a much much better lobbyist than a senator. Trump makes fun of his wife and then he begs him to come campaign for him? Geez
 
drstrangelov said:
I understand that the odds are still a little too shaky around losing the senate to ever admit publicly, but won’t everybody be real happy if Cruz loses? Just keeping his face off our screens for a couple years would be the best possible outcome tomorrow.
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I can admit that although I want the Republicans to win, it would be nice to see that slimeball lose.
 
I'm actually pretty disappointed. You have to register 30 days in advance in Illinois and with the timing of my move and waiting to change my driver's liscense to avoid having to change all my info for a flight I had already booked in October, I missed it by about a week and can't vote

I definitely wanted to vote against the locals that have said they will increase property taxes
 
HockeyBjj said:
I'm actually pretty disappointed. You have to register 30 days in advance in Illinois and with the timing of my move and waiting to change my driver's liscense to avoid having to change all my info for a flight I had already booked in October, I missed it by about a week and can't vote

I definitely wanted to vote against the locals that have said they will increase property taxes
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As an Illinois resident myself how the hell can they increase property taxes anymore??
 
Jesus and I thought Long Island was bad.
 
zebby23 said:
As an Illinois resident myself how the hell can they increase property taxes anymore??
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It's insane.
http://www.rrstar.com/news/20180906/winnebago-county-ponders-tax-increase

Here's my county saying they're 4.2 million dollars short and proposing that raising property taxes is needed. I want to vote everyone in favor of that the hell out

http://www.rrstar.com/news/20180315/roscoe-residents-voice-opposition-to-sales-tax-hike

And this is after a 1% sales tax increase earlier this year.

But I can't vote for people who want to end this tax and spend madness :( Clearly the problem is in efficient usage, not a lack of our tax money available for them to gobble up
 
zebby23 said:
I agree we should focus on today’s issues like closing polling places in predominantly black neighborhoods. Gerrymandering so republicans can continue to cheat their way to elections.

These are the issues we should and will be focusing on!!
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Seano said:
Sure. Make a thread.
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we've had several. @Ripskater suggested these disenfranchised blacks had no excuse because they should ask their church for volunteers to drive them to distant poll locations. This is the mentality we are dealing with.
 
Will the Left riot, if the Democrats don't win the House and/or Senate?

I say yes.
 
The Left?

You mean the hired help who are otherwise homeless and doing nothing anyways? Yea, probably
 
Double edged sword the dems losing the midterms. On one hand you would see some civility return,on the other you’ll have them roadblocking any progress the USA can have for the next two years.
 
Flip side as well. Will there be comparable protests from the right if the left win the House?
 
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