Elections 2018 Midterms: Polls, predictions and results.

PHATV said:
I generally like your posts, but I gotta say...

You clearly have a sig betting/attempting to bet addiction. To be sure you are aware yourself, I just want point that out.

I just realized I only owed @Fawlty 30 days and it's been 34, so I'm pulling his down momentarily and I'm going to agree with rip that the 'pubs keep both. I think the polls may be skewed like 2016, myself.

If I'm wagering, 'pubs lose house by 5 seats or less and gain seats in the senate. I'll got that for a sig bet if you're down. So lose house/keep senate, if you want to wager against that with another guess. If we're both wrong a push, I guess.
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For the most part, this is not the place to come for substantive discussion. Most posters are either dumb or hopelessly tribalistic. Instead of wasting lots of time pointing out why they are wrong, it's more efficient to smash them via bet.

These days, the anti-Trump people are more delusional on average than the pro-Trump people. It's extra hilarious because many of them are so condescending and sure of themselves. My bet record (4-0) is filled with the corpses of anti-Trump tribalists who got a little too big for their britches. Soon I will collect the corpse of the leader of the anti-Trump forces, the man known as @Jack V Savage .

After Trump's highly likely reelection in 2020, I expect these posters to drop their tails between their legs en masse, similar to what @rev0lver did earlier in this thread. At that point, the pro-Trump people will probably get arrogant. That's when I will start betting against Trump and the Republicans.
 
Diamond Jim said:


A major Republican super PAC is pulling its ads off the air in West Virginia, signaling the GOP is doubtful of its chances of unseating Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), The Washington Post reported on Thursday.

Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) confirmed to The Post that it is no longer airing television advertisements in The Mountain State after spending millions of dollars in support of GOP Senate candidate Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia's attorney general.
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If he ends up holding onto his seat, Manchin's decision to cast a vote in favor of Kavanaugh more than likely helped play a major role.
 
second sight said:
evidently project varatos has got a story they're running on beto tonight about the caravans
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Project Veritas are the ones who tried to feed a false accusation about Roy Moore to the Washington Post in an effort to embarrass them. They’re shit. Nothing they report can be believed.
 
waiguoren said:
For the most part, this is not the place to come for substantive discussion. Most posters are either dumb or hopelessly tribalistic. Instead of wasting lots of time pointing out why they are wrong, it's more efficient to smash them via bet.

These days, the anti-Trump people are more delusional on average than the pro-Trump people. It's extra hilarious because many of them are so condescending and sure of themselves. My bet record (4-0) is filled with the corpses of anti-Trump tribalists who got a little too big for their britches. Soon I will collect the corpse of the leader of the anti-Trump forces, the man known as @Jack V Savage .

After Trump's highly likely reelection in 2020, I expect these posters to drop their tails between their legs en masse, similar to what @rev0lver did earlier in this thread. At that point, the pro-Trump people will probably get arrogant. That's when I will start betting against Trump and the Republicans.
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You're a fucking idiot for that
 
waiguoren said:
For the most part, this is not the place to come for substantive discussion. Most posters are either dumb or hopelessly tribalistic. Instead of wasting lots of time pointing out why they are wrong, it's more efficient to smash them via bet.

These days, the anti-Trump people are more delusional on average than the pro-Trump people. It's extra hilarious because many of them are so condescending and sure of themselves. My bet record (4-0) is filled with the corpses of anti-Trump tribalists who got a little too big for their britches. Soon I will collect the corpse of the leader of the anti-Trump forces, the man known as @Jack V Savage .

After Trump's highly likely reelection in 2020, I expect these posters to drop their tails between their legs en masse, similar to what @rev0lver did earlier in this thread. At that point, the pro-Trump people will probably get arrogant. That's when I will start betting against Trump and the Republicans.
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Can you list your winning bets?
 
Joe said:
this could be big.
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So let's assume dems flip TN and AZ . NV might be in play. Assume dems at least lose ND they'd need all 3 TN AZ NV to flip it. If they lose MO too well then good luck. Not sure there's another one out there that's winnable for a majority .
 
Bobby 3 Sticks said:
So let's assume dems flip TN and AZ . NV might be in play. Assume dems at least lose ND they'd need all 3 TN AZ NV to flip it. If they lose MO too well then good luck. Not sure there's another one out there that's winnable for a majority .
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id love to see Blackburn lose more than cruz. She is awful. I remember her for her cable tv appearances over the years and she is a fucking moron. I doubt she loses.
 
dontsnitch said:
Can you list your winning bets?
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Winning Bets:

#2 @waiguoren v. @m52nickerson
1. Compare total discrepancies over four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina)
gif.latex

where each i indexes one of the states, the p's are the predicted Clinton lead in each state and the a's are the actual Clinton lead in each state.
2. Whoever (Waiguoren using his prediction posted before noon on election day or m52nickeson with fivethirtyeight projected vote share polls plus for his prediction election day) has the smaller sum (using the equation above) wins.
3. 11/08/2016 (Election day) or slightly after depending on results coming in
4. Signature bet- winner picks losers signature
5. 11/08/2016 (expected based on #3) to 01/20/2016
Winner: Waiguoren

#8 @waiguoren v. @cooks1
1. National Popular vote margin with Clinton/Trump will be <6.4% for Clinton.
2. Waiguoren- For Cooks1- Against
3. 1/21/16 (Day after inauguration day)
4. Signature Bet
5. 01/21/16 to next US Presidential election day
6. If Clinton simultaneously wins the popular vote by over 6.4%, but loses on the electoral map and Trump is elected on that basis, the bet will be void, as Hillary did get over 6.4% of the popular vote, but she did not win by 6.4% of the popular vote
Winner: Waiguoren


#18 @SidJustice v. @waiguoren
1. Neil Gorsuch will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court on or before 4/7/2017
2. SidJustice: Agree/ waiguoren: Disagree
3. 4/8/2017
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year
Winnner: Waiguoren



#19. @waiguoren v. @konagold
1. President Donald Trump resigns or is impeached on or before June 2, 2018
2. @konagold - for @waiguoren- against
3. 06/09/2018
4. Signature bet
5. 1 year (est 6/9/18-6/8/19)
Winner: Waiguoren


Losing Bets:


(empty)


========================


A complete listing of all settled and outstanding bets is available here. Huge credit to Brother @Lead for organizing everything and adjudicating the bets.
 
Anyone envision Edwards delivering the shiv to Pappas? Edwards has serious cred, Pappas is vanilla. Lots of independents up there and the polls have tightened.
 
Why are gubernatorial races historically less partisan than executive?
 
WHOA!





Nice Job, Ladies.

You've set back women 30 years with this stunt. <{CMPALM}>
 
I'm guessing THIS has more to do with Iran but anyway :

 
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