2017 PotWR Round 3: The Jungle Primary

[Jack V Savage]

Egelo would get my vote as the worst poster in the war room I could ever recall.

How on earth the mods didn't ban him earlier was beyond me. Virtually every post he made was one line with no substance, just saying fuck this or fuck that. Never ever said anything of substance ever that I could recall.

I don't recall him. I think soda is the worst because he's the only guy who was capable of making threads unreadable.

 

[trolololol]

H

Egelo would get my vote as the worst poster in the war room I could ever recall.

How on earth the mods didn't ban him earlier was beyond me. Virtually every post he made was one line with no substance, just saying fuck this or fuck that. Never ever said anything of substance ever that I could recall.

Hey, friend. You are invited to be a part of the next Worst War Room poster committee.

Thanks for your vote!

 

[trolololol]

He already voted @alanb

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

I regret not having run this year. It could have been my year, could have been my year....

Oh what could have been....

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

This just in, GNN has endorsed @HomerThompson as the sanity candidate.

Moderate right, moderate left, liberal posters we must stop splitting the vote!!!!

The rest of the sanity team has run excellent caimpagns but the internal blood letting must stop now.

GNN asks for the good of the war room that the remaining sanity candidates bury the hatchet with Homer and endorse him now!!!!!!!!

Fair and balanced

This is GNN

 

[trolololol]

Il

I regret not having run this year. It could have been my year, could have been my year....

Oh what could have been....

I offer you the next best thing, a position in my prestigious Administration.

Everyone is welcome, I don't turn people away like @Rational Poster and @HomerThompson do.


"I have a dream where one day people won't be judged by the sub-forum they normally post on a karate forum, but by the content of their character."

 

[Big Nasty Edison]

I've always said we should keep them here to collect data for the FBI.

See this is the type of WR policy I voted for.

 

[HomerThompson]

Hey, @CEROVFC, vote Thompson!

 

[HomerThompson]

 

[HomerThompson]

See this is the type of WR policy I voted for.

 

[HomerThompson]

Hey, @PolishHeadlock, get in here and vote Thompson!

 

[Lord Commander Palis]

I think the only thing that we all agree on, is that nobody could be worse than @Palis was. It's literally impossible.

Always mentioning me. Need that attention from me.

You aren't going to win... your posts suck.You aren't funny, nor clever enough. I'm a winner, not you.

Now take your serial killer looking ass outta here because you're done boy!

 

[irish_thug]

Hey, @PolishHeadlock, get in here and vote Thompson!

Hey @PolishHeadlock Get in here and vote Irish.

 

[Lead]

Gee, look at that, if we added up the votes of @HomerThompson @Rational Poster @Quipling @Falsedawn @JDragon , etc., the left leaning candidate would be the top vote getter so far.
But instead we’re going to divide the vote 10 ways and hand the election to the spam poster @pcptornado (nothing against you, I’m still a fan) and the center right candidate @irish_thug (nothing against you either).
Who could have POSSIBLY predicted this outcome?
@Lead you still say the Jungle Primary format doesn’t give a huge advantage to ideological outliers?
See the problem of waiting to see how things shake out @Jack V Savage , etc.?

There are two spectrums to factor in the race lucky. Ideaology and Establishment (WR) v. Outsiders (OT/SB/MB). I am not surprised at all how this is shaping up if you saw my 298 BSDATA model in last thread:
TwoNinetyEight Analysis Coverage of PotWR Election

TwoNinetyEight has put together an in depth analysis with all polling data during this election (none) and come up with a definitive analysis before the primaries began. We use an expect modeling system know as Baseline Standard Defined Affiliation Trajectory Assertion (or BSDATA Model) to position candidates determine where a specific voter base will vote.

From this analysis, we have determined 10 of the 17 candidates will have a chance of advancing to the general election:
@HomerThompson
@Rational Poster
@JDragon
@Quipling
@irish_thug
@snakedafunky
@Space
@pcptornado
@Clippy
@senri
Of these candidates, we've found those who are positioned closely to determine groups. These groups serve to determine the rule that no more than one candidate will have a chance of making it to the general election:
Group 1- HomerThompson, Rational Poster
Group 2- JDragon, Quipling
Group 3- irish_thug
Group 4- snakedafunky, Space
Group 5- pcptornado, Clippy, Senri
To clarify the meaning of these groups, an example would be if HomerThompson get to the general election, we predict Rational Poster will not also make it in.

This has been an groundbreaking analysis of your WR election so you know the results before election night because the BSDATA model is never wrong in all the past elections we've used it for.

As you can see, @irish_thug positioned himself away from the far right candidates AND he also has cross appeal between both longtimer WR posters and more casual ones. No other candidate is positioned close to where he is which is why he was in a group by himself and one of the 10 candidates I thought who had a chance to advance. Now you can complain a left leaning candidate isn't doing well but you're point that ideological extremes cater to this are off when you consider Irish is doing well. If you were correct, guys like Space/Colby25 would've beat out irish a bit or Homer/Rational would be receiving way more votes combined.

And isn't a WR poster.
This is turning into one of those god-awful sissy OT things. We're perilously close to a cat bath.
You should just go post in there, because that's what you want to do. No need to drag the rest of us into it.
@RR this is an egregious travesty.

No it's Lead wanting to be an OT poster. He should just go be that.

Oh look, Fawlty decided to come in after two weeks of doing nothing to help a campaign and start complaining about the ones that are doing successful and the election itself. I will note your well thought out criticisms. Here's some useful information for a change. Only 20% of the vote is in. You could actually try to help a campaign/coalition get to the next round. There is definitely enough time for things to turn around for almost any candidate here.

Hmmm, is this raising the possibliity for the second year in a row, a WR poster doesn't win POTWR.
Interesting. Is there a lack of care amongst WR posters, jealousy of being ruled by a fellow regular, or another force at play?

I find this bizarre as well even though I did assume pcp could advance to the main. The race isn't over so it's to early to assume this but from what I've seen, pcp is running the best campaign just by looking at the threads alone. He's got two other posters constantly doing vote pcp posts. He immediately tagged the voters he knew he had locked so they'd vote early to give him a decent lead which is important for primaries. And who knows how deep his PM game is going right now. Its hard to complain why he is winning. He is simply just campaigning better than everyone else.

Could be all of that. Plus a badly designed system that leads to split votes. Oh well. At least it's not a troll who should be banned.

Split votes is always going to be a con of this system. I don't want certain aspects added that would incentivize people to vote strictly party line. If we do that, we may as well tally the amount of left and right posters and call it each year for who won. The focus of this round is a candidate oriented primary, not an ideological/party one. You almost only need about 10% of the total vote to advance in this round which means if a left, right, outsider poster truly wanted to advance and put a lot of time in to do so, they could. The disadvantage they would have if they truly were just a fringe candidate with only appeal to that 10% is they would lose in the general election. If they win the general election, that would prove us wrong.

This just in, GNN has endorsed @HomerThompson as the sanity candidate.

Moderate right, moderate left, liberal posters we must stop splitting the vote!!!!

The rest of the sanity team has run excellent caimpagns but the internal blood letting must stop now.

GNN asks for the good of the war room that the remaining sanity candidates bury the hatchet with Homer and endorse him now!!!!!!!!

Fair and balanced

This is GNN

@luckyshot @Fawlty @Jack V Savage, this is what you should be doing if you truly want a left candidate to win. 80% of the vote is remaining so to call it over is very pessimistic.

 

[Lead]

Hey, @PolishHeadlock, get in here and vote Thompson!

Hey @PolishHeadlock Get in here and vote Irish.

These two weeks should be named a holiday that has tag in the word.

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

I think all the candidates should do better than the invalid Palis.

I am thinking a vote for HomerThompson may be in order, though I am happy with Irish as the opponent to PCP, I jjustt think round 4 would be more interesting if Homer gets to it as opposed to Irish.

It's been a great race so far, I don't want round 4 to be a let down.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Split votes is always going to be a con of this system. I don't want certain aspects added that would incentivize people to vote strictly party line. If we do that, we may as well tally the amount of left and right posters and call it each year for who won. The focus of this round is a candidate oriented primary, not an ideological/party one. You almost only need about 10% of the total vote to advance in this round which means if a left, right, outsider poster truly wanted to advance and put a lot of time in to do so, they could. The disadvantage they would have if they truly were just a fringe candidate with only appeal to that 10% is they would lose in the general election. If they win the general election, that would prove us wrong.

Yeah, the system seems set up to reward raids from other forums, and the change that enabled that was pretty under-the-radar. The outcome won't be as bad as last year, but this was disastrously mismanaged, IMO. I would have thought that after it flopped last year, there would be improvements to the system designed to avoid another flop. If the plan is to make the process go quicker, candidates should be allowed to pass their support to someone else when they drop out.

 

[irish_thug]

Yeah, the system seems set up to reward raids from other forums, and the change that enabled that was pretty under-the-radar. The outcome won't be as bad as last year, but this was disastrously mismanaged, IMO. I would have thought that after it flopped last year, there would be improvements to the system designed to avoid another flop. If the plan is to make the process go quicker, candidates should be allowed to pass their support to someone else when they drop out.

The forum raids only work if the posters are already war room posters, in which case already eligible to vote. Or are willing to put in some serious post whoring, which not many are.

 

[trolololol]

I think all the candidates should do better than the invalid Palis.

I am thinking a vote for HomerThompson may be in order, though I am happy with Irish as the opponent to PCP, I jjustt think round 4 would be more interesting if Homer gets to it as opposed to Irish.

It's been a great race so far, I don't want round 4 to be a let down.

You will not be let down by Team Tornado bud.

 

[Jack V Savage]

The forum raids only work if the posters are already war room posters, in which case already eligible to vote. Or are willing to put in some serious post whoring, which not many are.

Still, if it only takes 10% or so of the vote to make it to the final two, it's really easy to manipulate the system. And a huge change in the system from year to year should get more publicity. It's hard to imagine a more poorly designed process, IMO.