2016 Recap & Analytics

In 2016 I finally reached maturity as a bettor.

I started in 2012 with a $100 bankroll just for fun and kept it that way until I hit a $700 parlay in early 2015. Then I was all over the place and lost a lot of that money (mostly with stupid -900 soccer plays).

When I was as low as $300, I decided to take it more seriously. I grew steadily since mid 2015 and finished 2016 with $1,000 in my bankroll.

My strategy in 2016 was:
- only bet MMA;
- only bet when I'm familiar with both the fighters involved;
- keep pre fight bets low (I rarely bet more than 2 units);
- focus on livebet (here I commonly place 5 to 10u bets);
- flee from huge favorites (in the first Rockhold/Bisping fight I placed my entire bankroll in LR; this year I considered doing it again but refrained due to my new mindset and it saved me).

My biggest wins this year were Bisping by decision against Silva and Hendo. My biggest loss was over 1.5 MM/Cejudo.
 
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I had a bad 3/4 of 2016 but bounced back in Q4. This was largely due to:

- Spurs losing to Thunder in playoffs
- Golden State Warriors losing in the finals when they were up 3-1 or so (this devastated me not just for betting, but on a personal level since I love NBA. Kind of pathetic huh? LOL)
- Alvarez beating Pettis, and Dom beating TJ all in the same night

Because of the Golden State Warriors losing, I was mentally shooken up. When I lost my Holm bet to Shevshenko, I knew I had to take a break since I was making decisions based on emotion as opposed to logic. So I invested my energy in a startup business.

I started dipping in during the MLB playoffs and rode the Indians and Cubs. Cashed big with Cubs winning WS. Built my confidence back and been killing NBA live bets. Done pretty well in MMA aside from Aldana, Smolka (against Moreno), Thiago Santos debacles. Quadrupled my bankroll and got my confidence back. Getting better at numbing myself to losses and moving on.

My lessons learned:
  • Don't go past 3U on prospects
  • Don't go past 3U on WMMA, if at all unless proven commodities like Nunes, JJ
  • Stop with the "in event" bets just for action (not lbs). Stick to my pregame bets and only LB if profitable
  • Scale down my max bet from 10U to 7.5U
  • Stop fucking with WSOF and Bellator, if I have to max bet is 1U for action and have to be close to a lock
Goals for 2017:

  • Hit a 4 figure prop parlay. I haven't even hit a 3 figure one yet, mostly because I don't play them.
  • Bet on Stipe on all of his fights this year lol, he has the division on lock
  • Cash out 5 figures in profit at year end

Thanks to this awesome community. Let's get paid!

If anyone wants to talk to me on their smartphones and discuss lbs and lines, add me on bbm below.

IMG_20170102_230526_edit.png
 
Excited to post my findings in here when I get some extra time.
 
I had a bad 3/4 of 2016 but bounced back in Q4. This was largely due to:

- Spurs losing to Thunder in playoffs
- Golden State Warriors losing in the finals when they were up 3-1 or so (this devastated me not just for betting, but on a personal level since I love NBA. Kind of pathetic huh? LOL)
- Alvarez beating Pettis, and Dom beating TJ all in the same night

Because of the Golden State Warriors losing, I was mentally shooken up. When I lost my Holm bet to Shevshenko, I knew I had to take a break since I was making decisions based on emotion as opposed to logic. So I invested my energy in a startup business.

I started dipping in during the MLB playoffs and rode the Indians and Cubs. Cashed big with Cubs winning WS. Built my confidence back and been killing NBA live bets. Done pretty well in MMA aside from Aldana, Smolka (against Moreno), Thiago Santos debacles. Quadrupled my bankroll and got my confidence back. Getting better at numbing myself to losses and moving on.

My lessons learned:
  • Don't go past 3U on prospects
  • Don't go past 3U on WMMA, if at all unless proven commodities like Nunes, JJ
  • Stop with the "in event" bets just for action (not lbs). Stick to my pregame bets and only LB if profitable
  • Scale down my max bet from 10U to 7.5U
  • Stop fucking with WSOF and Bellator, if I have to max bet is 1U for action and have to be close to a lock
Goals for 2017:

  • Hit a 4 figure prop parlay. I haven't even hit a 3 figure one yet, mostly because I don't play them.
  • Bet on Stipe on all of his fights this year lol, he has the division on lock
  • Cash out 5 figures in profit at year end

Thanks to this awesome community. Let's get paid!

If anyone wants to talk to me on their smartphones and discuss lbs and lines, add me on bbm below.

IMG_20170102_230526_edit.png

Completely agree with in event bets. Ive lost so much money doing that shit. I do it like 10 secs before the fight starts what a dick. Just wait for lb!
 
First of all, thank you very much for this community and the overall interest in something we all love :)

2016 has been the first year bettingwise, that I have been really serious about. I read alot this year about improving strategies, theories and general optimizing the way of thinking about betting. I only bet MMA, since I don't see any point in betting a sport you know you're not profiting from longterm. Before 2016, I bet large sums on nearly every fight to have a lot of action and the overall thrill for every fight. This combined with enjoying drinking was a bad idea, and if you're a rational individual, it's not the hardest to adjust your style and use more discipline. It's the degen in me that love to have action on alot of fights.

I started this year with a low bankroll and unit size, and I have increased my unit size throughout the year. This has worked out awesome, and im thinking about increasing the unit size even more to start out 2017. If I know I can get a good ROI over a large sample of bets, im willing to do a more aggressive BR management, but I still have a lot of work to do capping wise. Im not the best capper, so I have to focus more doing that.

My do's and dont's:

do's:
  • Stick more to Livebet. Have been killing LB this year, and hit some high odds (Magny DEC after 2nd @ +900, Cerrone ITD @ +400 Gastelum ITD +350 and Brazil Cowboy ITD after 2nd vs. Brooks @ +2200)
  • Stick to the WMMA underdogs if you wanna bet WMMA
  • Go harder unitwise on the LB lines
  • Stick with one parlay/RoundRobin/Hail Mary for the whole card
  • Adding NO SC's to parlays is awesome (I take my chances on the variance if I can add a no void bet on a parlay)
  • Continue with only betting on fights where I have insight on both fighters. Betting on fights where you only know one fighter, is just plain stuppidity these days.
don'ts:

  • Go alot smaller on fancy props
  • Don't chase if loosing (rhetorical), it's a marathon, not a sprint
  • I have a tendency to accept big change in LB odds and still play it, even though I don't have too
  • I have not been good at judging over/unders and somehow also ML's
  • Don't trust all information, it's the internet after all. Use information wisely to argument for what you're doing

Now to the results:
  • 660 bets (A parlay/RR/Hail is considered one bet) in 2016 = 123,84 units ROI: 9,01%
  • I began using a advanced spreadsheet july 2016, and my ROI since then is at 122,04% over aprox. 400 bets.
  • Im pretty happy about this samplesize, and it would look even prettier if parlays was divided into single bets as well.
  • I made three times more livebetting than prebetting. 2nd best results came via triple parlays, and single ML's has been the worst for me this year.
Im looking forward to a 2017 with you sherdoggers, with a lot of further development and opportunities in the betting game. :)
 
Ok had a quick look at my record over the past 23 events since i started recording results. So im all about a big double normally and sometimes but rarely instead of a double i will play someone straight.

I went 17-6 over the last 23 events. I had a rip roaring end to the year as I went 5-0 over the past 5 events. I hit my original target around August i think and i set a new ambitious target which i hit spot on so i'm chuffed. My target is 75% success rate - I'm running at 73.9%. If I didn't get fucked over on Tim Johnson I'd be running at 78% (yes im still bitter over that).

So my second target for last year is my target from the outset this year. Let's do this!
 
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Tracked all my MMA bets this year in Excel. Had quite a steep downwing somewhere in the middle of the year, but bounced back nicely at the end. Graph:
f8fa9679c4da6ea3a3aaae61e7124453.png


Total profit of 60.13 units
Total ROI of 4.05%
 
I started betting on small amounts in 2015, I made many mistakes and I lost my initial deposit but it was worth the experience.

So I decided to take it more seriously and I subscribed to Fight pass (best idea I had), since December 2015 I turned 100€ in 2K. and 100€ in 380, my second bookie.

It was a crazy year, especially livebetting fights, bookies make big mistakes a lot of times. In no other way could I have multiplied x20 my br.

This forum is great. I have been reading you for 2 years or more when there was no betting section, only Oblivian's threads.
 
Great thread. 2016 was my first full year of betting on MMA and this forum was absolutely vital in helping me get past some rookie mistakes. I still have plenty of room for improvement though. I didn't start keeping a log of my results until UFC 202 (which was a mistake), but since then I'm +9.1 units overall. Nothing crazy, but betting is strictly a hobby for me, so I'm satisfied with that number. I also finished out the year with three straight losing events, so that was a bit frustrating.

Focus areas for this year:
  • Only bet on fights when I have watched tape on BOTH fighters
  • Don't be afraid to go bigger on my most confident leans
  • Stop being "a fan". The most recent example of this was a fairly big bet on Pettis. If I don't want to bet against my favorite fighters, I need to lay off the fight or go very small
  • Start live betting more. I typically end up drinking/getting into the fight and I often completely forget to check lines in between rounds. Lots of opportunities missed
On a side note, I started tracking my NBA bets on November 29th and since then I'm +4.8 units. If I can sustain that longer term, basketball might be worth more of my focus.

Hopefully, I can contribute more to the forum this year and best of luck to everyone in 2017.
 
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No clue might start this this year.
 
It's been a great year with all you wonderful people. Closed out the year with 133 units of profit and will be doubling the unit size going into 2017.

I thought UFC 207 were my worst results but looking back it was UFC 198 with about a 20 unit loss. I guess I did well in forgetting that debacle. My best results came from UFC 203 where I ended up +51 units.

The most I've lost on a single fight was Corey Anderson vs Shogun, a split decision in Brazil, 15 units between straight bets and parlays. The most I've won on a single fight is Woodley vs Lawler, 25~ units mostly from props. That same night I had a 900:1 parlay busted by Ellenberger KOing Brown.

I rarely get around to watching tape, and as I watch most fights with drinks and weed my memory is a bit hazy but it seems to be working out. I've managed to grow my initial deposit by 26x since mid 2015. I'd love to do more live betting but I'm often out with friends or having people over for fights and I don't want to be on my phone every 5 minutes. I like to bet on every fight for action and while I know it's detrimental to my BR, at the end of the day I'm doing this for fun.
 
It's been a great year with all you wonderful people. Closed out the year with 133 units of profit and will be doubling the unit size going into 2017.

I thought UFC 207 were my worst results but looking back it was UFC 198 with about a 20 unit loss. I guess I did well in forgetting that debacle. My best results came from UFC 203 where I ended up +51 units.

The most I've lost on a single fight was Corey Anderson vs Shogun, a split decision in Brazil, 15 units between straight bets and parlays. The most I've won on a single fight is Woodley vs Lawler, 25~ units mostly from props. That same night I had a 900:1 parlay busted by Ellenberger KOing Brown.

I rarely get around to watching tape, and as I watch most fights with drinks and weed my memory is a bit hazy but it seems to be working out. I've managed to grow my initial deposit by 26x since mid 2015. I'd love to do more live betting but I'm often out with friends or having people over for fights and I don't want to be on my phone every 5 minutes. I like to bet on every fight for action and while I know it's detrimental to my BR, at the end of the day I'm doing this for fun.

Something i stopped doing pretty quick cos i got burnt was parlaying the same person twice particularly if its a big bet.
 
Something I have thought about and never done (until now) is open an account on UFC Pick Em. I would encourage you guys to do this as a way to track your picks over 2017. As we inevitably get into pissing contests about who is the best etc. The Pick Em site will provide 3rd party tracking which compiles the results over the whole year. This is done through the main UFC site.

The Pick Em of course does not take into account any odds or unit sizes it would stricly be a measure of who is making the right picks. It would be really fun to compare results at the end of the year or maybe at each quarter or something.

What better time to sign up than at the begining of 2017 ?! (I am not a corporate shill even tho it sounds like it :)

www.ufc.com/fantasy?id=
 
Something I have thought about and never done (until now) is open an account on UFC Pick Em. I would encourage you guys to do this as a way to track your picks over 2017. As we inevitably get into pissing contests about who is the best etc. The Pick Em site will provide 3rd party tracking which compiles the results over the whole year. This is done through the main UFC site.

The Pick Em of course does not take into account any odds or unit sizes it would stricly be a measure of who is making the right picks. It would be really fun to compare results at the end of the year or maybe at each quarter or something.

What better time to sign up than at the begining of 2017 ?! (I am not a corporate shill even tho it sounds like it :)

www.ufc.com/fantasy?id=

Tapology could be a better shout since they don't offer the bonuses that can skew your score.
 
I participate in the UFC Pick 'Em, Tapology & MMA Playground which are all similar. I won $500 for coming in first place on Tapology in the annual contest that ended in early 2016. It coincided with a huge winning 2015 for me with my cash bets.
 
Great thread idea @EzFlyer, also thanks for doing mod duties and all it entails, I think I speak for all when I say it is greatly apprecaited!

I lurked this thread a bit in 2015 and began contributing a little in 2016 at which point I started also being a bit more serious about betting, although still for fun when considering unit size. I used to just make huge parlays to try to win big, whereas now I focus on singles and small (3 team or under) parlays, mostly thanks to tips from this forum.

I am up somewheres between 25-40 units for the year, depending on exactly when I changed my unit size (just judging from the change in my BR from beginning to end). I am looking to double my unit size again in 2017 and actually begin watching more tape instead of going off of memory. A few quick do's and dont's I learned that I hope to implement in 2017, without being repetetive as I agree with most others that people have listed.

Do's:
-Bet less fights (usually had action on 80% of fights most cards)
-Along the same lines - bet my more confident leans bigger. In 2016 I would have 2, maybe 2.5 units on my most confident plays and .5-1u on some least confident plays. My thinking was it was smart to "diversify" if you will, however I am certain it cost me a lot of units.
-Put money on 5Dimes to get LB'ing and better lines (bovada blows)
-Watch more tape, plain and simple, you cannot possibly remember all of the nuiances that go into capping a fight.

Dont's:
-Blindly tail people without forming my own opinion by tape watching, breaking down how I envision the fight to go, etc. Don't get me wrong a lot of you on here are far better cappers than I, but I have been guilty of being swayed into a bigger bet based on someone else's confidence.
-Try to make up for losses by reaching later in the night
-Make parlays over 3 teams. I have lost far too many 4-team parlays on a big favorite.
-Don't add big favorites to parlays to get + money. I bet small favorites as a single bet, but for some reason I always need + money on paralys. Doesn't make sense, so no more of that!

I feel I have a decent sense of how styles will match up and play out, but really need to watch more tape and form better opinions on my own and then come here and discuss and consider opposing views. If I do this and become more disciplined 2017 should be a good year!
 
thx, stunna, man i am still behind on this thread, haven't had the time to do my own analytics, let alone read all yours.. anxious to do so.. will cach up soon
 
Wow good thread and read guys.

Well started fresh November 2015 with £200
Always have bet on the UFC for as long as I can care to remember but only silly lotto parlays 10+teamers and once went about 6 months tailing @Oblivian in his own threads.

Finished the year end at £3700..

Actually less thinking about it... fuck you very much shields!!!
Anyway there abouts.

My changes this year..

Bigger lb stakes from the off, always start too low and miss golden opportunities.
No more than 2 in a parlay if it's a big play,
No more betting on anything other than the UFC, lost 2k easy betting other sports in 2016,
No juiced fighter at all, none, everyone loses sometime and it's when we bet the most they do!
Events are on during the middle of the night for us and i often fight to stay awake sometimes even nodding off at some point waiting after a rd1 ko... so a power nap before an event is a must now so I can concentrate,
Get another screen up next to me so not always swapping between books and this forum.
Avoid any lines involving Brandon fucking Thatch.

That's about it, thanks to everyone involved in the threads your insight is highly appreciated.

Hopefully get my br up to 20k by the end of the year using my existing method and making the changes above.
 
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Thank you guys for sharing your experience with new section members.
This are great insights for me since I started play that game more serious maybe month or 2 ago.
I hit good parlay with Jotko and was usually betting Joanna since I am from PL ( well now I will be against Held against my patriotism xD )
My biggest win so far was parlay at UFC FN 101 parlay Lausa , Taylor, Voklanovsky around 700 eur.
The biggest fail for me was event with Perry when I lost 300 eur I didn't watch a tape and trusted hype plus had wrong summary of Frankenstein potential plus Aldana ...again I trusted hype here against my own doubts.

I am around 200 eur on plus but should be much more if I would avoid :
parlays with more than 3 fights, WMMA , Bellator, last WSoF ( fockin blanket Rosholt was laying all his UFC carrer so beautiful and here he got ktfo in 1st round ..)
This year I am going following strategy:
I bet only UFC
I watch tape - at least 2 fights of each fighter .
Writing short notes with my first type. Searching for valuable opinions to have second look on fight- like Shaub, he's good at picking.
Betting max 3 single fights on card plus 1 parlay with max 3 fighters.
Maximum amount to spend on 1 event- 200 eur.
Smaller potential wins and patient plus volume that's my go to betting way now xD
This is it. Hope I will have some newbie luck :D
Ps. Sorry for my eng/ grammar
 
Something I have thought about and never done (until now) is open an account on UFC Pick Em. I would encourage you guys to do this as a way to track your picks over 2017. As we inevitably get into pissing contests about who is the best etc. The Pick Em site will provide 3rd party tracking which compiles the results over the whole year. This is done through the main UFC site.

The Pick Em of course does not take into account any odds or unit sizes it would stricly be a measure of who is making the right picks. It would be really fun to compare results at the end of the year or maybe at each quarter or something.

What better time to sign up than at the begining of 2017 ?! (I am not a corporate shill even tho it sounds like it :)

www.ufc.com/fantasy?id=
I will be tracking my bets in 2017 at bettin.gs/BuddyBrown, mostly because I can add live bets too so I can track my results fully. Also will be able to track straight bets, props and parlays separately too. Super easy site to use.

I'm going to join UFC Pick Em and Tapology too though I think.
 

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