2016 Recap & Analytics

[Buddy Brown]

@LEMONZEST can you win money or prizes this year on UFC Fantasy and Tapology?

 

[LEMONZEST]

^^JimGunn said he won money on Tapology last year - maybe he can asnwer your question better than me. I am a noob to these sites. I just signed up for UFC Pick Em earlier today lol.

 

[Buddy Brown]

^^JimGunn said he won money on Tapology last year - maybe he can asnwer your question better than me. I am a noob to these sites. I just signed up for UFC Pick Em earlier today lol.

I think that was in a contest.

I think you could win tickets, merch and so on on the UFC Pick Em back in the day but I don't think they do that anymore.

Not sure if I want to put the time into making picks every week without potentially getting something out of it.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I think that was in a contest.

I think you could win tickets, merch and so on on the UFC Pick Em back in the day but I don't think they do that anymore.

Not sure if I want to put the time into making picks every week without potentially getting something out of it.

What you get out of it is non-bias feedback on how good you are at picking winners. I am hella curious what my win % will be at the end of 2017. Of course it will be a bit skewed as on Pick Em you are picking every single fight, some of which you have no real read on. However, at the same time if I can pick at like a 70% win rate that would be cool to know objectively.

It will be helpful to build confidence in knowing you have the ability to consistently pick winners. Or conversely if your picks are like 40% correct then it may be worth paying heed more to other people...

Anyone can do well on a single card. The interest fact is who has the ability to CONSISTENTLY pick winners.

 

[Buddy Brown]

What you get out of it is non-bias feedback on how good you are at picking winners. I am hella curious what my win % will be at the end of 2017. Of course it will be a bit skewed as on Pick Em you are picking every single fight, some of which you have no real read on. However, at the same time if I can pick at like a 70% win rate that would be cool to know objectively.

It will be helpful to build confidence in knowing you have the ability to consistently pick winners. Or conversely if your picks are like 40% correct then it may be worth paying heed more to other people...

Anyone can do well on a single card. The interest fact is who has the ability to CONSISTENTLY pick winners.

I can't be bothered dealing with Tapology but if others on this forum join UFC Pick Em I will too. We could create a Sherdog league which would be very fun like DK. I doubt others will join though unfortunately.

 

[Buddy Brown]

What you get out of it is non-bias feedback on how good you are at picking winners. I am hella curious what my win % will be at the end of 2017. Of course it will be a bit skewed as on Pick Em you are picking every single fight, some of which you have no real read on. However, at the same time if I can pick at like a 70% win rate that would be cool to know objectively.

It will be helpful to build confidence in knowing you have the ability to consistently pick winners. Or conversely if your picks are like 40% correct then it may be worth paying heed more to other people...

Anyone can do well on a single card. The interest fact is who has the ability to CONSISTENTLY pick winners.

Fuck it, I've joined UFC Pick Em. Going to start a Sherdog league which will prob just consist of me and you, lol.

 

[LEMONZEST]

^^cool I am in. Not sure how leagues work but we will figure it out. My username is LEMONZESTNUMBER1. JimGunn is also on UFC so we can invite him too.

We have a couple weeks to convince people to get aboard!

 

[Buddy Brown]

^^cool I am in. Not sure how leagues work but we will figure it out. My username is LEMONZESTNUMBER1. JimGunn is also on UFC so we can invite him too.

We have a couple weeks to convince people to get aboard!

I'm not sure either but we'll figure it out. The link to join is here: http://bit.ly/2iAJF3H

 

[Sham5916910]

im keen to join but i only bet on two fights each card (big at least) and so i only watch tape generally on four fighters for each card. I have a terrible memory generally so lots of my picks will be a stab in the dark lol!

 

[Buddy Brown]

im keen to join but i only bet on two fights each card (big at least) and so i only watch tape generally on four fighters for each card. I have a terrible memory generally so lots of my picks will be a stab in the dark lol!

We all still have a better read on fights than most so it'll be fun to see our percentages and how well we all do anyway.

Only takes a few secs to make picks before the event, there's an app which is super easy to use.

 

[Sham5916910]

We all still have a better read on fights than most so it'll be fun to see our percentages and how well we all do anyway.

Only takes a few secs to make picks before the event, there's an app which is super easy to use.

is that betting.gs easy to setup? im gonna do one too if so.

 

[OneWarrior1]

I'd be interested. I'm looking to join another betting platform like DK. Is it worth our time and can be profitable though?

 

[Buddy Brown]

is that betting.gs easy to setup? im gonna do one too if so.

Yeah the easiest I've come across. You just sign up with email takes 20 seconds. After that you just type bets in then there's some additional options like bookie used, tags and so on. You can use 3 tags for free so I'll be using straight bets, props and parlays so I can keep track of each type of bet. Wanted to add another for live bets only but you have to pay for a premium version to use more so fuck it I'll just add them as normal bets. Still the best tracker though besides doing your own spreadsheet which takes way too much time for me.

 

[Buddy Brown]

I'd be interested. I'm looking to join another betting platform like DK. Is it worth our time and can be profitable though?

Can't speak for everyone but I joined DK a couple of months ago for fun and it's been very profitable for me after learning how to play, I don't think I've lost money once in like 10 or so events. I play every event now and will be upping my stakes. Bettors have an advantage. Aiming to hit the jackpot and win big in 2017, I want to win a big prize like when they gave UFC 205 tickets along with like 5 grand or whatever it was

 

[cCrown]

If i can avoid limits which hopefully i will with how i now bet .

What's your strategy for avoiding limits? because I definitely do not want to be limited either.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I'm not sure either but we'll figure it out. The link to join is here: http://bit.ly/2iAJF3H

Okay so I joined the group. So far it is just you and me If anyone else is interested in joining our group on UFC PIck Em please do so asap before the first event. This way we can track our picks over the whole calendar year. Follow the below link:

http://bit.ly/2iAJF3H

PS. Don't worry about making some picks without much info Sham. I am sure we will all do so from time to time as sometimes the undercard is full of new guys/gals.

 

[EzFlyer]

2016 Recap

Total Units: +113.21 (749 fights)

event summary:

UFC 195: +2,138.18 <--- first event of 2016 was my best, haha
RFA 34: +188
Invicta 15: +227
UFN 81: +2,135.20
Legacy 50: +87.50
WSOF 27: +200
Bella 148: -123.50
ufc fox 18: +713.39
Legacy 51: -100
ufn 82: -508.74
Bella 149: +84.50
RFA 35: -50
WSOF 28: +50
UFN 83: -77.09
bella 150: +266
ufn 84: +1,010.37
bella 151: +17
titan 37: +116.25
ufc 196: +70.98
invicta 16: -610.50
wsof 29: -353.25
ufn 85: +427.14
Victory 49: +200
WSOF 30: +338.36
Legacy 53: +75.50
UFN 86: -480.78
RFA 35: -50
Bella 152: -24.50
UFC FOX 19: +1,412.87
Rizin 3: -99.50
Bella 153: +341.45
UFC 197: -318.69
Titan 38: +400
Invicta 17: +612.50
UFN 87: -709.85 <----- start of summer slump
UFC 198: -855.35
Bella 154: -176
Bella 155: +387.65
ksw 35: -50
UFN 88: -883.37
UC 199: -138.69
Titan 39: +15
Bella156: -341
WSOF 31: -28.58
ufn 89: +153.96
bella 157: -502.50
ufn 90: -129.41
TUF 23: -51.61
UFC 200: -767.58 <------ end of summer slump (net of -4,077.33 in this period)
UFN 91: +1,115.13
Bella 158: +152.65
Bella 159: +98.16
Legacy 58: -60
UFC Fox 20: -704.69
invicta 18: +87.31
UFC 201: -94.92
WSOF 32: +69.49
Titan 40: -148.50
UFN 92: +513.38
UFC 202: +766.01
Bella 160: -411.59
UFC FOX 21: +438.93
UFN 93: +277.91
Titan 41: +120
RFA 43: +55
UFC 203: +1,054.03
Bella 161: +326.20
UFN 94: -236.15
Invicta 19: +423.19
CES 38: -50
UFN 95: +361.03
Rizin 2: -258.50
UFN 96: +1,216.03
WSOF 33: -73.25
UFC 204: +746.58
Bella 162: -24
Bella 163: -8.75
UFN 98: +111.37
Bella 164: +230
UFC 205: -370.09
Invicta 20: -250
UFN 99: -458.36
UFN 100: +221.19
Bella 165: +592
UFN 101: -1,101.21 <---- worst event of 2016
Titan 42: -280
Bella 166: -46.39
Bella 167: +62.88
TUF 24: -109.09
ufn 102: +91.57
Bella 168: +80.30
UFC 206: +1,612.12
Bella 169: +45
UFC FOX 22: -182.95
UFC 207: +443
Rizin 4: -72
WSOF 34: +528.11

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +88.51 units (560 fights)
Bellator: +10.36 units (83 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): -4.30 units (8 fights)
Invicta: +4.90 units (25 fights)
WSOF: +7.81 units (33 fights)
Titan: +2.48 units (23 fights)
Others: +3.46 units (17 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. - another example would be if I bet a -210 Over, but on a fight where I have a -130 favorite winning, it counts as a -130 "side" and could be misleading))

FAVORITES: +5.21 units (349 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +107.99 units (400 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: -20.65 units (201 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +28.38 units (108 fights)
-401 & up favorites: -2.52 units (40 fights)

dogs up to +200: +123.33 units (219 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: -6.14 units (105 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -9.20 units (76 fights) <-- this includes longshot event props (FOTN, etc)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( -4.11 units total )))
145 (including cyborg-lansberg 140 catchweight): +5.69 units
135: -3.49 units
125: -8.44 units
115: +0.89 units
105: +1.25 units

men: ((( +117.32 units total )))
265: -4.05 units
205: -12.68 units
185: +6.92 units
170: +73.45 units
155: +13.94 units
145: +7.04 units
135: +46.22 units
125: -6.13 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -7.38 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -3.38 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -0.83 units

OVER decisions: -0.24 units
UNDER decisions: -3.76 units
OVER KO/SUBS: -0.29 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -1.04 units

Draws: +2.15 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +105.24 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +7.97 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
6/4/16: -503.25: cole miller vs caceres
5/8/16: -507: tumenov vs nelson
11/12/16: -544.40: alvarez vs mcgregor
11/26/16: -575.52 matthews vs holbrook
8/26/16: -590: freire vs bendo <------- this was the worst loss of the year, though. in many ways.
11/19/16: -590.84: timothy johnson vs volkov
5/14/16: -642: werdum vs miocic
5/14/16: -656.30: warlley alves vs barberena


huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)
6/4/16: +600.50: ortega vs guida
6/4/16: +645.85: dariush vs vick
6/18/16: +659.26: soto vs beal
11/19/16: +661.49: munhoz vs scoggins
12/10/16: +754.51: swanson vs choi
1/17/16: +770.92: alvarez vs pettis
11/5/16: +784.97: lamas vs oliveira
4/16/16: +809.98: graves vs randy brown
10/8/16: +840.88: edwards vs tumenov
10/1/16: +1,279.34: lineker vs dodson

-------------

I may add to this after reading some of everyone else's (i'm finally gonna start reading them now)

my key takeaways:
-dogs are way better for me than favorites. at least for 2016.
-event props are generally a bad thing
-wmma is generally not good

i'm not sure what to make of my monster year at 170 pounds and 145 pounds.







2015 recap that i did last year (in spoilers here) :

Spoiler

unit: $100.00

2015: +174.59u

ufc: +147.05u
bellator: +20.62u
invicta: +3.21u
wsof: +0.57u
titan: +3.57u
others: -0.43u (interesting)

-------------------------------------------

best events:

UFC 182: +2,133.64
UFC 183: +1,990.38
ufc 188: +1,643.80
ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
UFC 184: +1,490.35
ufn 73: +1,468.53
ufn 63: +1,109.15
tuf 22: +1,041.23
UFN 60: +1,003.56

worst events:

ufn 64: -1,252.15
ufc 189: -1,357.40
UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10

-------------------------------------------

the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.

-------------------------------------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u

-------------------------------------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-4u or worse):

12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)

-------------------------------------------

100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!

 

[Sham5916910]

Ok f it i will sign up. Gonna sign up to your tracker too Brick...i mean Buddy. Think i put more effort into betting than work these days...

 

[Joseph Budden]

Think i put more effort into betting than work these days...

That's been me for awhile now lol

 

[Sham5916910]

2016 Recap

Total Units: +113.21 (749 fights)

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +88.51 units (560 fights)
Bellator: +10.36 units (83 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): -4.30 units (8 fights)
Invicta: +4.90 units (25 fights)
WSOF: +7.81 units (33 fights)
Titan: +2.48 units (23 fights)
Others: +3.46 units (17 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. - another example would be if I bet a -210 Over, but on a fight where I have a -130 favorite winning, it counts as a -130 "side" and could be misleading))

FAVORITES: +5.21 units (349 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +107.99 units (400 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: -20.65 units (201 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +28.38 units (108 fights)
-401 & up favorites: -2.52 units (40 fights)

dogs up to +200: +123.33 units (219 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: -6.14 units (105 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -9.20 units (76 fights) <-- this includes longshot event props (FOTN, etc)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( -4.11 units total )))
145 (including cyborg-lansberg 140 catchweight): +5.69 units
135: -3.49 units
125: -8.44 units
115: +0.89 units
105: +1.25 units

men: ((( +117.32 units total )))
265: -4.05 units
205: -12.68 units
185: +6.92 units
170: +73.45 units
155: +13.94 units
145: +7.04 units
135: +46.22 units
125: -6.13 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -7.38 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -3.38 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -0.83 units

OVER decisions: -0.24 units
UNDER decisions: -3.76 units
OVER KO/SUBS: -0.29 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -1.04 units

Draws: +2.15 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +105.24 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +7.97 units

-------------

I may add to this after reading some of everyone else's (i'm finally gonna start reading them now)

my key takeaways:
-dogs are way better for me than favorites. at least for 2016.
-event props are generally a bad thing
-wmma is generally not good

i'm not sure what to make of my monster year at 170 pounds and 145 pounds.







2015 recap that i did last year (in spoilers here) :

Spoiler

unit: $100.00

2015: +174.59u

ufc: +147.05u
bellator: +20.62u
invicta: +3.21u
wsof: +0.57u
titan: +3.57u
others: -0.43u (interesting)

-------------------------------------------

best events:

UFC 182: +2,133.64
UFC 183: +1,990.38
ufc 188: +1,643.80
ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
UFC 184: +1,490.35
ufn 73: +1,468.53
ufn 63: +1,109.15
tuf 22: +1,041.23
UFN 60: +1,003.56

worst events:

ufn 64: -1,252.15
ufc 189: -1,357.40
UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10

-------------------------------------------

the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.

-------------------------------------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u

-------------------------------------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-4u or worse):

12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)

-------------------------------------------

100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!

Now thats stats m'fuckas