Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

[Lustercross]

Bernie is going to win New Hampshire. He's still an underdog in every other state.

 

[Space]

Trump fired up at rally live in NH right now:

 

[VivaRevolution]

So I was busy with shit for the last few days on shit that I wouldn't wish on anyone so when I took a few minutes break here or there it was just to fuck around on the MMA sites.

If anyone wouldn't mind kind of just telling me where we are at as far as what the general consensus is of who will win due to the Iowa results I'd be appreciative. Sounds like Hilary probably has it now as she should get N.H. and S.C. and keep rolling and it could be either Trump or Cruz? Also heard Hilary got very little of voters under 30. That could be a problem in the general although I'd still like her chances.

The democratic party has reported that clinton won with 700 state level delegates, to Sanders 695. This translates into 21 national delegates each, with clinton obtaining some super delegates prior to any actual voting that exist for some reason........

Sanders is leading in New Hampshire by 25%. This will tighten up, but it looks like it is a lock for sanders.

Cruz won iowa, trump 2nd, rubio a close 3rd. Rubio is the establishment candidate, he is in it for the long haul. The fight is between Cruz and trump for the outsider position. Cruz showed a amazing ground game in iowa. Interesting to see if he can reproduce it.

 

[Quipling]

http://igrewupinusa.info/clinton-caucus-caught-on-camera-committing-voter-fraud-in-iowa/

Is that one good enough for you sir? I can find 1 million more if it doesn't live up to your incredibly high authoritarian standards. Includes a C-SPAN video

It sources to "conservativeoutfitters.com" and a reddit thread in which someone alleges that cheating occurred, and displays a video that doesn't actually display what you claim happened. So, no, that doesn't actually reach any kind of standard at all.

I don't think you understand the difference between an actual source and a link to recycled content.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Bernie is going to win New Hampshire. He's still an underdog in every other state.

Have you seen any recent polling from the coasts?

Last I saw sanders was surging in places like california, oregon, Washington state, and is competitive in new york.

 

[Max Power]

A good breakdown of the Republican caucus from Kyle Kulinski.



And his take on the Democrat coin flip.

 

[skombolis]

The democratic party has reported that clinton won with 700 state level delegates, to Sanders 695. This translates into 21 national delegates each, with clinton obtaining some super delegates prior to any actual voting that exist for some reason........

Sanders is leading in New Hampshire by 25%. This will tighten up, but it looks like it is a lock for sanders.

Cruz won iowa, trump 2nd, rubio a close 3rd. Rubio is the establishment candidate, he is in it for the long haul. The fight is between Cruz and trump for the outsider position. Cruz showed a amazing ground game in Iowa. Interesting to see if he can reproduce it.

I was in the car and i thought i heard on the radio a guy something like "I think the Iowas win could help Hilary take N.H. and she should definitely take S.C. so I consider he the odds on favorite". But if she loses N.H. than things will have to play out for a while to really have an idea and you are saying Bernie has a good lead there.

And I heard Rubio did decent for getting third and might pull some other Republican votes.

So basically we don't know much right now other than to see how a few more primaries play out because projected polling is close? All right, thanks man, I appreciate that. This is the first time i have sat down in about 5 fucking days for more than 10 minutes and trying to get somewhat caught up on what's going on. Normally I'm not so lazy! Peace

 

[speakhandsforme]

Have you seen any recent polling from the coasts?

Last I saw sanders was surging in places like california, oregon, Washington state, and is competitive in new york.

I can't see him winning, but I see him at the very least being competitive in the following:

Washington, Oregon, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont

I'd be surprised if he lost any of Maine/NH/Vermont and honestly I expect him to win Washington and Minnesota too

 

[VivaRevolution]

I can't see him winning, but I see him at the very least being competitive in the following:

Washington, Oregon, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont

I'd be surprised if he lost any of Maine/NH/Vermont and honestly I expect him to win Washington and Minnesota too

I don't think most people see the long game bernie is playing. His message based campaigning is going to be smelling like roses when we are all over saturated with media coverage of the election.

I saw existing polling info from Iowa dems where 80% who voted for shares values, and represents me, voted for sanders. 75% for clinton on can win a general election, and most experienced. I believe that sanders can move those numbers pretty easily as the race goes on, where as I think those numbers will hold for clinton. Sanders like-ability numbers are unheard of. This has always been a good indicator of future trends of polling.

 

[skombolis]

A good breakdown of the Republican caucus from Kyle Kulinski.



And his take on the Democrat coin flip.

That was a good breakdown.

 

[skombolis]

I don't think most people see the long game bernie is playing. His message based campaigning is going to be smelling like roses when we are all over saturated with media coverage of the election.

I saw existing polling info from Iowa dems where 80% who voted for shares values, and represents me, voted for sanders. 75% for clinton on can win a general election, and most experienced. I believe that sanders can move those numbers pretty easily as the race goes on, where as I think those numbers will hold for clinton. Sanders like-ability numbers are unheard of. This has always been a good indicator of future trends of polling.

Bernie also got like 86% of voters under 30 in Iowa. If Bernie wins I want Rubio to win and Bernie to win overall. And i think he'd do better against Rubio for a lot of reasons, particularly being viewed as non-establishment.

But if Trump wins I want it to be Hilary because I think she can handle Trump's personality better. I think Hilary would beat Trump or Cruz no problem. But this election is making me nervous. But it could definitely come down to the youth vote.

 

[theBLADE1]

Sounds like Hilary probably has it now as she should get N.H. and S.C.

Bernie Sanders has a very substantially lead in New Hampshire and I don't see Hillary's very narrow victory in Iowa as enough to change it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

South Carolina is a different story though. He has a lot of ground to make up and a lot of people think it's impossible for him to do so.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

 

[VivaRevolution]

Bernie also got like 86% of voters under 30 in Iowa. If Bernie wins I want Rubio to win and Bernie to win overall. But if Trump wins I want it to be Hilary because i think she can handle Trump's personality better. This election is making me nervous. But it could definitely come down to the youth vote.

I think it goes trump vs sanders, or rubio vs clinton. While left and right are defiantly divided, I don't think the view of establishment politics is. I really want a bernie vs trump election. I think sanders is trumps' kryptonite.

 

[skombolis]

Bernie Sanders has a very substantially lead in New Hampshire and I don't see Hillary's very narrow victory in Iowa as enough to change it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

South Carolina is a different story though. He has a lot of ground to make up and a lot of people think it's impossible for him to do so.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

Thanks. I didn't realize she was polling that far away from Bernie. I thought it was close and people like riding the momentum, just hearign she won iowa could influence on-the-fence voters. But not enough for that to be the difference if the gap is 25%. Other things could still close it and make it interesting but yeah, I think I'd have to agree that Bernie is definitely the favorite.

 

[skombolis]

I think it goes trump vs sanders, or rubio vs clinton. While left and right are defiantly divided, I don't think the view of establishment politics is. I really want a bernie vs trump election. I think sanders is trumps' kryptonite.

I don't know man, I like Bernie a lot and maybe he can do it. I just feel like Trump will respond very poorly to a smart, calculated, woman politician. She just seems to be the kind of woman that would keep her composure and Trump, who doesn't seem to be a big fan of women anyway, would probably just lose it and say all sorts of stupid shit. I think he would feel more in his comfort zone attacking Sanders.

And I can't imagine Sanders is used to this level of insanity. But being a Clinton, what isn't normal to them? lol I don't know, Bernie is a smart guy but I just worry Trump is too modern tabloid for him and has a type of politics Bernie just won't be used to. If it happens that they match up, nobody will be happier if i am wrong than me.

 

[VivaRevolution]

South Carolina is a different story though. He has a lot of ground to make up and a lot of people think it's impossible for him to do so.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

Bernie needs to just close the gap in south carolina, a win in Nevada would be huge for the campaign. Despite the media's claim to the contrary, the coasts pick the democratic nominee, not the south.

 

[Renard]

Bernie also got like 86% of voters under 30 in Iowa. If Bernie wins I want Rubio to win and Bernie to win overall. And i think he'd do better against Rubio for a lot of reasons, particularly being viewed as non-establishment.

But if Trump wins I want it to be Hilary because I think she can handle Trump's personality better. I think Hilary would beat Trump or Cruz no problem. But this election is making me nervous. But it could definitely come down to the youth vote.

Trump vs Bernie would be epic though. Imagine the debates. Bernie would be bringing substance and laying out his policy plan and Trump would be like "Bernie is a loser, communist. He would do a horrible job."

 

[VivaRevolution]

Thanks. I didn't realize she was polling that far away from Bernie. I thought it was close and people like riding the momentum, just hearign she won iowa could influence on-the-fence voters. But not enough for that to be the difference if the gap is 25%. Other things could still close it and make it interesting but yeah, I think I'd have to agree that Bernie is definitely the favorite.

Debate this thursday. Should be the highest viewership yet I think, and a 1 on 1 debate with O'Malley out now.

 

[speakhandsforme]

Thanks. I didn't realize she was polling that far away from Bernie. I thought it was close and people like riding the momentum, just hearign she won iowa could influence on-the-fence voters. But not enough for that to be the difference if the gap is 25%. Other things could still close it and make it interesting but yeah, I think I'd have to agree that Bernie is definitely the favorite.

I'd bet the farm on Sanders taking NH and Hillary taking SC.

Hillary is going to blow the doors off of Sanders in the dirty south.

 

[speakhandsforme]

Also, if we're talking about Donald as the nominee (it won't be him), Sanders is an easier opponent than Hillary.


Hillary would seriously crush and embarrass Trump. If you want an MMA analogy, it would be like Anderson Silva vs. Forrest. Just calculated head movement and counter punching while Trump swings like a drunk hillbilly.