Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

[Theoretically Speaking]

Cruz won 8 delegates, Trump and Rubio both won 7 delegates according to USA Today. So it's hardly a crushing defeat for Trump.

Trump had an Aura and he lost it.


The guy was dominating debates, he was getting all the attn, polls had him leading and winning....Trump advertised himself as a WINNER and was one of the main reasons people liked em because he did seem like a WINNER.


He looked unstoppable yet he still lost. Sorry but that is pretty bad for trump.

 

[Thurisaz]

Trump had an Aura and he lost it.

Yeah, that's what the media has been saying since August.

Concern troll is concerned.

The train is fine.

 

[Theoretically Speaking]

Bernie will win New Hampshire and lose all the states after that.

He could win california.


Bernie has the money to work the hispanic/black vote.



Remember Hispanics/Blacks don't vote for bernie in early polls, not because they don't like em but because they don't know who bernie is.


So Bernie can only go up with hispanics/blacks, he just needs to advertise himself to them.....I bet Univision/Telemundo are gonna show this tie to the people thus they will learn who bernie is.

 

[PEB]

Establishment is celebrating a close win over anti establishment. How people may ask? Well Ted is playing the greatest fake-out game right now. There is no question about where Hillary stands VS Sanders. Ted can look totally anti-establishment yet receives millions from the establishment.

 

[Theoretically Speaking]

Yeah, that's what the media has been saying since August.

Concern troll is concerned.

The train is fine.

Trump is a great troll, he dun goof skipping that debate however...He troll'd himself.

 

[JDragon]

Cruz wont beat Hillary in a GE. The rest of the states best get their shit together.

Well Wisconsin for example, it is virtually a tie in polls between Hillary and Cruz (or Hillary and Rubio). Sanders would smash both surprisingly.

 

[PEB]

Loser.com trolling Donald Trump. Their link redirects you to his wiki.
http://www.loser.com/

 

[JDragon]

February 2015 poll.

 

[Arkain2K]

I think that helped more than hurt.

Everyone else on that stage had their knives out for Cruz.

Nah man, the latest Fox/Google debate pretty much solidified the "Donald Duck" narrative, thanks to Megyn Kelly's domination over flip-floppers.

Cruz has always been polled below Trump, but those who waited until the last minute to decide clearly did not like a Presidential contender who is obviously scared of a moderator lady he previously dubbed "lightweight".

 

[JDragon]

I think it is extremely scary half of the Republicans voted for lunatics like Trump or Cruz.

Sane candidates like Kasich, Christie, Jeb need to support Rubio.

When Carson drops out, Cruz may get his vote which is also scary.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Nah man, the latest Fox/Google debate pretty much solidified the "Donald Duck" narrative, thanks to Megyn Kelly's domination over flip-floppers.

Cruz has always been polled below Trump, but those who waited until the last minute to decide clearly did not like a Presidential contender who is obviously scared of a moderator lady he previously dubbed "lightweight".

Well, unless there was extensive exit polls done, I guess we'll never know for sure.

It could be that in the last month, Trump has been extremely negative with baseless attacks. He was previously very positive with an uplifting message.

Another possibility is that he has been the anti-media and anti-establishment candidate until recently in which he's embraced the establishment's olive branches in many of their figurehead's comments that they'd rather Trump be the nominee over Cruz, because Trump 'could make deals.' And the media has been much more accommodating, and far less hostile.

But, we'll never know for sure.

 

[Arkain2K]

Evidence That Skipping The Last Debate Cost Trump The Iowa Caucus
02/01/2016

A common refrain at any Trump rally is "We don't win at anything." But after the Iowa Caucus, "we don't win" also applies to the Trump campaign, thanks to a bad decision to skip the Fox News debate. Evidence shows Trump's lead shrank in polls after the debate, and may well have contributed to his near-third place finish.

Going into the Fox News Debate on Thursday Night, January 28, the feeling among most pundits was that Donald Trump got the best of the GOP field, Megyn Kelly, and Fox News, by skipping the debate.

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann's NBC News First Read wrote "Earlier this week, we wrote that Donald Trump's decision not to attend Thursday's GOP debate could be a brilliant tactical move -- or a disastrous one. Well, after watching the two hours of debate last night, it was clearly the former."

John Harwood with CNBC concurred. So did Jonathan Chait with NY Mag. CNN reported that Fox News' debate ratings took a hit. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thought that skipping the debate hurt Trump (except for me, and I'm hardly a well-known writer). The feeling was that Trump had sewn up the nomination. On the night of the Iowa Caucus, an MSNBC newscaster pointed out that Trump had won eight straight polls.

Less attention was paid to the details of these polls, taken before and after the debate. Before the debate, Trump did actual lead ten straight surveys, but in the five polls taken before the debate he led by an average of 6.2 points, winning NBC/Wall-Street Journal/Marist by seven points, PPP by eight points, Monmouth by seven points, Quinnipiac by two points and ARG by seven points.

By the end of the debate, Trump's lead shrank to 3.6 percent.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-a-tures/evidence-that-skipping-th_b_9136620.html

 

[Selukrid612]

I think it is extremely scary half of the Republicans voted for lunatics like Trump or Cruz.

Sane candidates like Kasich, Christie, Jeb need to support Rubio.

When Carson drops out, Cruz may get his vote which is also scary.

It probably would have been more if people actually thought they would win in the GE. I'm in the same boat, Trump and Cruz are easily my top two, but I'll gladly settle for Rubio if that's what it takes to win.

 

[second sight]

Evidence That Skipping The Last Debate Cost Trump The Iowa Caucus
02/01/2016

A common refrain at any Trump rally is "We don't win at anything." But after the Iowa Caucus, "we don't win" also applies to the Trump campaign, thanks to a bad decision to skip the Fox News debate. Evidence shows Trump's lead shrank in polls after the debate, and may well have contributed to his near-third place finish.

Going into the Fox News Debate on Thursday Night, January 28, the feeling among most pundits was that Donald Trump got the best of the GOP field, Megyn Kelly, and Fox News, by skipping the debate.

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann's NBC News First Read wrote "Earlier this week, we wrote that Donald Trump's decision not to attend Thursday's GOP debate could be a brilliant tactical move -- or a disastrous one. Well, after watching the two hours of debate last night, it was clearly the former."

John Harwood with CNBC concurred. So did Jonathan Chait with NY Mag. CNN reported that Fox News' debate ratings took a hit. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thought that skipping the debate hurt Trump (except for me, and I'm hardly a well-known writer). The feeling was that Trump had sewn up the nomination. On the night of the Iowa Caucus, an MSNBC newscaster pointed out that Trump had won eight straight polls.

Less attention was paid to the details of these polls, taken before and after the debate. Before the debate, Trump did actual lead ten straight surveys, but in the five polls taken before the debate he led by an average of 6.2 points, winning NBC/Wall-Street Journal/Marist by seven points, PPP by eight points, Monmouth by seven points, Quinnipiac by two points and ARG by seven points.

By the end of the debate, Trump's lead shrank to 3.6 percent in the five polls after the Fox News debate.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-a-tures/evidence-that-skipping-th_b_9136620.html

actually Cruz was ahead early in the polls and Trump overtook him....supposably had a lead going into yesterday

 

[second sight]

I think it is extremely scary half of the Republicans voted for lunatics like Trump or Cruz.

Sane candidates like Kasich, Christie, Jeb need to support Rubio.

When Carson drops out, Cruz may get his vote which is also scary.

you should worry about how merkel has fuck up Germany, instead of projecting nonsense into our politics

its obvious your rooting interest in our failure, let me guess you're a hillary supporter?

 

[JDragon]

you should worry about how merkel has fuck up Germany, instead of projecting nonsense into our politics

its obvious your rooting interest in our failure, let me guess you're a hillary supporter?

The last thing I can want as a German is the US to fail as it would jeopardize our security much more than the refugee issue.

And Cruz and Trump are lunatics. Everyone who is not one of their supporters would describe them that way. They are radicals and far from democratic politicians - they are merely playing that role inside a democracy.

Would I support Hillary? Tough to say. Bernie would be my favorite candidate, but it is obvious his policies are way too far on the left by US standards to have any chance to become a political reality.

So my hope would be that Hillary or one of the more moderate Republicans (i.e. not Cruz, not Trump, not Carson, not Huckabee) becomes President. Cruz would set the oceans of the world on fire, and Trump would likely be a disaster.

 

[second sight]

The last thing I can want as a German is the US to fail as it would jeopardize our security much more than the refugee issue.

And Cruz and Trump are lunatics. Everyone who is not one of their supporters would describe them that way. They are radicals and far from democratic politicians - they are merely playing that role inside a democracy.

Would I support Hillary? Tough to say. Bernie would be my favorite candidate, but it is obvious his policies are way too far on the left by US standards to have any chance to become a political reality.

So my hope would be that Hillary or one of the more moderate Republicans (i.e. not Cruz, not Trump, not Carson, not Huckabee) becomes President. Cruz would set the oceans of the world on fire, and Trump would likely be a disaster.

I added the edit about failure so I'll take you at your word
In YOUR opinion, why is Cruz not a good candidate?

 

[Selukrid612]

The last thing I can want as a German is the US to fail as it would jeopardize our security much more than the refugee issue.

And Cruz and Trump are lunatics. Everyone who is not one of their supporters would describe them that way. They are radicals and far from democratic politicians - they are merely playing that role inside a democracy.

Would I support Hillary? Tough to say. Bernie would be my favorite candidate, but it is obvious his policies are way too far on the left by US standards to have any chance to become a political reality.

So my hope would be that Hillary or one of the more moderate Republicans (i.e. not Cruz, not Trump, not Carson, not Huckabee) becomes President. Cruz would set the oceans of the world on fire, and Trump would likely be a disaster.

What is your opinion of Rubio?

 

[second sight]

What is your opinion of Rubio?

I know you ask him but... Rubio is weak on immigration, immigration is a huge issue now, look at Germany as an example. It's being destroyed as we speak

 

[JDragon]

I added the edit about failure so I'll take you at your word
In YOUR opinion, why is Cruz not a good candidate?

To me, he is so far right on most issues that it will be impossible for him to unite America in a time when it is so divided.

Also, I would never elect a President who says "I am a Christian first, American second". (Source)

I also believe that both Cruz and Trump would actually destroy America's power instead of restoring or augmenting it. The rest of the world would find it impossible to cooperate with a President who knows no compromise, no shades of grey. Actually I believe the rest of the world would find ways to cooperate without the United States, thereby diminishing American influence.

What is your opinion of Rubio?

I think Rubio is the second best Republican candidate after Kasich and the one most likely to win the General Election. I do not like his position on Cuba and Iran. I do like his stance on abortion, the fact that he is pragmatic about immigration, and I think his stance on climate change is not as bad as that of other candidates (he says it's not man-made but it's real - this at least opens the avenue to get ready for what is coming). His stance on same-sex marriage is respectable - he believes marriage to be between a man and a woman, but says the ruling must be respected and followed.

If I were a moderate leaning Republican, I would want to make sure Rubio is my candidate.

I know you ask him but... Rubio is weak on immigration, immigration is a huge issue now, look at Germany as an example. It's being destroyed as we speak

You can hardly compare the issues and situations both countries are facing.