Elections 2016 GOP South Carolina/ Democratic Nevada Primary Discussion

Which candidates will win their state race?

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
Both CNN and Fox are projecting a Trump win..... with only 3% of the vote in.

Um.... what?

Now Trump is up with 13 points, but wait until at least half of the votes are in to avoid making a mistake.
 
I still think if an establishment candidate can keep it close up to the convention, the super delegates will screw Trump.
 
AznTrojan said:
this has to be the end for bush
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And Carson, hopefully.

If Bush stays in, it's to sabatoge Rubio.

If Carson stays in, it's to sabatoge Cruz. There has to be some hated of Cruz, by Carson, and I doubt it's rooted in the Iowa results.
 
AznTrojan said:
this has to be the end for bush
Click to expand...

It's been the end for awhile. Hopefully he isn't an ass and admits defeat before or right after Super Tuesday

GearSolidMetal said:
Both CNN and Fox are projecting a Trump win..... with only 3% of the vote in.

Um.... what?

Now Trump is up with 13 points, but wait until at least half of the votes are in to avoid making a mistake.
Click to expand...

Yea, that's pretty embarrassing. I don't care how well the exit polling is going for someone. You can't call it with 3% like that.
 
Lead Salad said:
Hey IGIT,

We are familiar with each other. Call me Lead.

I think there are only two situations with the establishment. First one is Rubio becomes establishment guy with Jeb stepping aside and wins the nomination. Second is Jeb doesn't accept he won't win (not just the establishment lane but the primary itself) and stays til Florida which could possibly doom the establishment wing entirely.
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'evening Lead,

i'd imagine that this, as another poster noted, is now the end for Mr. Bush. assuming that his supporters now coalesce around Mr. Rubio, the GOP race just got alot more interesting - a legitimate 3 way race.

- IGIT
 
GearSolidMetal said:
Both CNN and Fox are projecting a Trump win..... with only 3% of the vote in.

Um.... what?

Now Trump is up with 13 points, but wait until at least half of the votes are in to avoid making a mistake.
Click to expand...


Ehh, a statistics person, could explain better than me, but once you get to a certain number, you can predict a plausible range of possibilities.

If trumps lead is enough, it can be over with 3% of the vote in.
 
IGIT said:
'evening Lead,

i'd imagine that this, as another poster noted, is now the end for Mr. Bush. assuming that his supporters now coalesce around Mr. Rubio, the GOP race just got alot more interesting - a legitimate 3 way race.

- IGIT
Click to expand...

If you noticed my GOP primary thread, I saw it as a three man race far before this. The thread began December 18th.

The race is over for Bush but there is still the question of if he stays in or pushes on the pressure to suspend his campaign. Not sure what place he was willing to finish in SC though. He's at 4th with 3% in so far.
 
Lead Salad said:
If you noticed my GOP primary thread, I saw it as a three man race far before this. The thread began December 18th.

The race is over for Bush but there is still the question of if he stays in or pushes on the pressure to suspend his campaign. Not sure what place he was willing to finish in SC though. He's at 4th with 3% in so far.
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hiya Lead,

you've posted so many threads regarding the GOP and Democratic races, i can't remember the particular one you're citing - but yeah, the odds have been stacked against poor Jeb for months now.

the establishment pressure for him to hang'm up has to be tremendous at this point.

still...the real news is Mr. Trump's double digit lead. if it holds up, Erik Erickson has to be pulling his hair out by the fistful.

this will continue to be a fun contest to follow.

- IGIT
 
IGIT said:
hiya Lead,

you've posted so many threads regarding the GOP and Democratic races, i can't remember the particular one you're citing - but yeah, the odds have been stacked against poor Jeb for months now.

the establishment pressure for him to hang'm up has to be tremendous at this point.

still...the real news is Mr. Trump's double digit lead. if it holds up, Erik Erickson has to be pulling his hair out by the fistful.

this will continue to be a fun contest to follow.

- IGIT
Click to expand...

GOP 2016 Primary Thread V5: 2 Hispanics and a Bigot Walk into an Election Edition

Trump has the lead but Rubio will move up close to similar numbers with Jeb and Kasich leaving. I think Rubio has advantages in the later winner take all races that have more moderate voters. Factor in Florida as well and Texas with Cruz and I think Trump has a hard race near the end. It would be funny if NY and Cali votes Trump though.
 
Lead Salad said:
If you noticed my GOP primary thread, I saw it as a three man race far before this. The thread began December 18th.

The race is over for Bush but there is still the question of if he stays in or pushes on the pressure to suspend his campaign. Not sure what place he was willing to finish in SC though. He's at 4th with 3% in so far.
Click to expand...

@IGIT too.

So do you guys think Kasich is basically done?

Also what is your confidence that if cruz or trump fell off, that their supporters would go rubio, and not the remaining of trump or cruz?
 
8% in, Trump up on Cruz by 10%.

A little early to call, but looks like Trump will take it, and with that it would take a catastrophic implosion for him to lose the nomination. Crazy. Donald Trump is going to the the Republican nominee. I don't know what to think, but this election cycle is entertaining at least.
 
Fox says 21% is in.

Trump - 34%
Rubio - 22%
Cruz - 21%

Rubio ahead of Cruz by 130 votes now. Wow.

No one expected it was going to be such a close race for 2nd.
 
HendoRuaGOAT said:
@IGIT too.

So do you guys think Kasich is basically done?

Also what is your confidence that if cruz or trump fell off, that their supporters would go rubio, and not the remaining of trump or cruz?
Click to expand...

hello HendoRuaGOAT,

Kasich has always been done, i think. i've never seen him as serious contender for the nomination.

if Cruz' support falls off, i'd imagine they'd mostly head over to the Rubio camp - but its hard to say...if Trump somehow falls apart, Cruz would seem to be the most immediate benefactor.

right now, i'm curious to see if Rubio can place 2nd in South Carolina. with all the heavy support he's gotten within the state from establishment types, it wouldn't be the best news for him to place behind Ted.

- IGIT
 
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