Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Feb 19, 2016.
Two different states Saturday night. Should be eventful.
Things to watch for.
The Nevada race has very little polling to go off of but shows it fairly close. This is Bernies first test in a more ethnically diverse states.
South Carolina has Trump with a huge lead so it could become another NH where other candidates claim 2nd place as a victory.
Again like Nee Hampshire, where will the three remaining establishment republicans place. Jeb Bush put a lot investment into this state and has hyped it up during Iowa and NH. Rubio got Governor Haleys endorsement a couple days out to try to bounce back from a previous disappointing showing.
Betting on Trump for this state. Not as sure on Hillary, but she may be trying to sandbag Sanders despite the ground he's gained. She is massively mobilized in Nevada.
Bernies nonwhite gap in the national poll he won was 53-36 with 11 percentage to idk and other. Better than past polls and shows he could have a much better chance winning nationally by closing the gap.
He destroyed the under 45 group 70-26 and men 52-40.
I actually believe Sanders will win Nevada even if it's by the most narrow margins. And as much as it is a royal pain in my ass to type, even I can admit the black vote in South Carolina is pretty much set to be his downfall
I think Bernie squeaks past Clinton in Nevada.
I don't have a strong feel for the GOP race in SC.
I'm actually rooting for Trump there, I can't understand people voting for Raphael.
hi Lead Salad,
i have no feeling for the race on the Democratic side as to who will win. it's starting to feel alot like Iowa, where Mrs. Clinton had a titanic lead, only to see the race tighten considerably in the closing days.
a hard pick.
in terms of the GOP, i'm curious to see how Mr. Bush fares. i've long predicted he'd emerge as the consensus nominee, because i believe that the GOP voters ultimately always fall in line with the establishment...but if the new establishment choice is Mr Rubio (as Governor Haley's endorsement seems to suggest it is), then this is the race that elicits the most interest from me.
who do you see coming out on top, between Mr. Bush and Mr. Rubio?
We are familiar with each other. Call me Lead.
I think there are only two situations with the establishment. First one is Rubio becomes establishment guy with Jeb stepping aside and wins the nomination. Second is Jeb doesn't accept he won't win (not just the establishment lane but the primary itself) and stays til Florida which could possibly doom the establishment wing entirely.
Jeb is no longer electable to the GOP primary and his time staying around only hurts Rubio. If you looking at polling, Rubio is going to do better as time goes on as he consistently leads (still) as second choice for voters. So other than Carson's voters possibly splitting with Trump and Cruz, Rubio is going to pick up Jeb and Kasich's. I know this is more obvious now but the other end isn't noticed. Jeb does horrible as second choice, meaning if the Trump/Cruz/Jeb three man race turned into a two man race, Jeb actually may have trouble and lose.
So my answer would be Rubio or neither if Jeb is an ass about it. There will be pressure after SC for him to drop with more endorsements to back him and possibly donors switching ships
Another thing to look for is Nevada is a Caucus which usually favors candidates with more motivated voters. Gives a little more edge to Bernie despite other disadvantages.
Why Nevada Polls Are Bad
Fivethirtyeight article on the uncertainty going into Nevada.
Nevada Caucus begins at 2pm. Not sure when we start seeing results but that seems fairly early if Iowa was 8pm
Someone probably has a better site to track it but I usually follow Politico's homepage
Nevada Caucus has begun. SC begins at 7pm EST
Why the Nevada winner could be picked by a deck of cards
For those who remember the coinflip rule in Iowa that Clinton won all six that occurred, Nevada has a similar way of breaking ties.
The Washington Post updates its results every 30 seconds
Politico also has live updates as well
I think Clinton wins Nevada simply because it's a caucus, and they are easily manipulated. Yes, I'm saying she will cheat.
The battle for second is going to be interesting as Rubio surged right to Cruz's spot before the primary
Earlier, seemed like we could be seeing a Trump and Cruz win with no establishment candidate higher than third.
The same exact thing happened before Iowa with Rubio
I'm unsure whether it's undecideds last minute flock to Rubio or supporters of Trump and Cruz decide to switch.
Most of the analysts mark a caucus as an advantage to Sanders for the fact supporters have to sit through the whole thing and Bernie's supporters are more willing/enthusiastic to do it. Also, you have a portion where supporters of each side try to convince each other to switch. It can become very important with which group is more motivated.
I remember watching the CNN coverage in Iowa seeing how dumb some of these people really were. This Bernie supporter walked over to a lady wearing a Hillary shirt and convinced her in under five minutes to switch. It baffled me but was very interesting to see such a difference between a caucus and primary. Way more politically engaging imo but still a little wonky.
421 50.0% --
418 49.6% --
3 0.4% --
Bernie and Shillary in a virtual tie so far....
It showed a pan of multiple caucuses around the state and it gave me shivers seeing the amount of young people there to support Bernie. This is unthinkable, reminds me of the support RFK was getting during his short primary run.
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