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Then you are pointing to why I believe there was fraud committed here. I do not have a degree in statistics, but I know enough that when you have every county reporting, that a 20% + swing in the results is absurd.
Seriously... step away from the keyboard for 30 mins. It's not all that absurd that a candidate who was seen to be surging didn't overtake the favorite. Like I said, the latest models probably got updated so as not to embarrass the pollsters post Michigan. They probably overcompensated.