Elections 2016 Democratic/GOP Super Tuesday Primary Thread

[Lead]

About a quarter the delegate decided in one night for both parties with the cumulative reaching 30% allocated. Could be the end for a lot of campaigns after tonight.

Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday State Polls
FiveThirtyEight's Super Tuesday Poll Forecast

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Poll not neccessary.

Hillary will obviously win the majority of the states, same with Trump.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Delegates I got clinton.

Here is what I am hoping to see for bernie.

Win Vermont, Massachusetts, and colorado.

Win either, oklahoma, Virginia, or Minnesota(polls say I'm crazy on Minnesota, but I think the highest voter turnout in the country favors bernie).

Big part of the delegate race and how close it will be is Texas. Yuuuge delegate count there. Bernie has to turn out the college vote in Texas to make it close.

 

[SMEAC]

Should be more like:

Will someone other than Trump or Clinton win in a state they aren't from?

 

[Sycho Sid]

Delegates I got clinton.

Here is what I am hoping to see for bernie.

Win Vermont, Massachusetts, and colorado.

Win either, oklahoma, Virginia, or Minnesota(polls say I'm crazy on Minnesota, but I think the highest voter turnout in the country favors bernie).

Big part of the delegate race and how close it will be is Texas. Yuuuge delegate count there. Bernie has to turn out the college vote in Texas to make it close.

Definitely has Vermont, and has a good shot at Mass (though I think Mass will look like Iowa). I do not see it at all for Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and definitely not Virginia.

Though Oklahoma and Colorado should definitely be closer than say, Virginia.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Definitely has Vermont, and has a good shot at Mass (though I think Mass will look like Iowa). I do not see it at all for Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and definitely not Virginia.

Though Oklahoma and Colorado should definitely be closer than say, Virginia.

You could very well be right, I hope not, but this cycle has been unpredictable.

 

[speakhandsforme]

I thought Minnesota would have been a good state for Bernie to perform well in.

 

[wlu29]

Bernie

 

[ncordless]

Cruz missile getting a vote?

I actually admire the man. To be so fundamentally unlikable and still be hamging tough speaks to his remarkable ability to pander.

 

[Lustercross]

Delegates I got clinton.

Here is what I am hoping to see for bernie.

Win Vermont, Massachusetts, and colorado.

Win either, oklahoma, Virginia, or Minnesota(polls say I'm crazy on Minnesota, but I think the highest voter turnout in the country favors bernie).

Big part of the delegate race and how close it will be is Texas. Yuuuge delegate count there. Bernie has to turn out the college vote in Texas to make it close.

My whole family and I will vote for Bernie in Texas.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I thought Minnesota would have been a good state for Bernie to perform well in.

Me too, heard clinton dumped a lot of resources into Colorado and minnesota, would be big if bernie could steal them.

 

[speakhandsforme]

Me too, heard clinton dumped a lot of resources into Colorado and minnesota, would be big if bernie could steal them.

Those were two states that I had pegged as must-win for Bernie to be viable. The demographics (white, liberal, gun-owning) are perfect for Sanders. To markedly lose either would be a nail in the coffin.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I thought Minnesota would have been a good state for Bernie to perform well in.

Wasn't the rally in which tens of thousands showed up to support Bernie, in Minnesota?

 

[speakhandsforme]

Wasn't the rally in which tens of thousands showed up to support Bernie, in Minnesota?

I really don't recall. I know he had a huge one in Madison, Wisconsin. But the Twin Cities are a socialist paradise, so it would make sense that he would draw big numbers there.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I really don't recall. I know he had a huge one in Madison, Wisconsin. But the Twin Cities are a socialist paradise, so it would make sense that he would draw big numbers there.

Could have been Wisconsin. I knew it was around there.

 

[COTUR1@43]

 

[VivaRevolution]

Those were two states that I had pegged as must-win for Bernie to be viable. The demographics (white, liberal, gun-owning) are perfect for Sanders. To markedly lose either would be a nail in the coffin.

Yeah I would agree, however if clinton dumped most of her resources there, and bernie let's say strategically deployed his assets to Oklahoma, and Texas to remain close in delegates, and pull a upset win, he could still be OK. Not saying this is likely, just a possibility. This is a chess match.

Edit: He would still have to win colorado.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Latest poll has Cruz up in Texas by 9 points, I heard on TV.

Even though he may not get 50%, he still may get all the delegates. It depends if he wins all the counties.

The thing about most of the polls throughout Super Tuesday, the last ones were made weeks ago. Back when multiple candidates were still in the race and have since dropped out, and the last few debates.

Tuesday is going to be very unpredictable.

 

[VivaRevolution]

5 Ways the Media Is Gravely Misreading South Carolina's Democratic Primary Results
02/28/2016 07:15 pm ET | Updated 21 hours ago


Bernie Sanders, having just finished two rallies in Texas with crowds larger than Hillary Clinton could ever dream of -- a 10,000-person rally in Austin and an 8,000-person one in Dallas -- called Clinton to concede the South Carolina primary and got on a plane bound for Minnesota, a state whose Super Tuesday vote the media hasn't bothered to poll, but which Bernie Sanders is likely to win. If he listened to any of the coverage of his dramatic defeat in the Palmetto State while en-route to Rochester, he probably wondered at its accuracy and cogency. Here's five reasons he'd be right:

1. In South Carolina, Sanders won many of the groups that will matter in the general election, making it puzzling that the media would declare Saturday's primary results solid proof of Clinton's viability in November.


2. Among voters who decided who they wanted to support over the last four weeks, Sanders significantly outperformed his statewide totals, losing that demographic by less than half what he lost South Carolina by.

3. CNN consistently misstated the composition of the Super Tuesday electorate in a way that dramatically misled viewers about Clinton's prospects.


4. John King's "Magic Wall" has dazed him into -- frankly -- incoherence.

More than a dozen times on Saturday, CNN viewers were treated to King using a large touchscreen to convince them that "most of Super Tuesday" takes place in the Deep South. King repeatedly used a finger to draw a line around the Deep South, as though wishing that Super Tuesday would indeed be merely an "SEC primary" could make it so. Here's a list of the states or other voting units that cast ballots on Tuesday but never made it into the geographic zone King identified as defining Tuesday's vote:

5. Almost no one has voted yet. No, really -- almost no one has voted.

After Saturday, 4% of all Democratic delegates -- the voted-upon ones, at least -- have been decided. Ninety-six percent of the primary season still lies ahead of us.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/5-ways-the-media-is-grave_b_9340218.html?

 

[Sycho Sid]

Republican

Democrat

Some good stuff from Fivethiryeight about the chances tomorrow. A couple of promising areas for Sanders, and a couple of things to look out for.