When the cast was revealed, Forrest was pretty much everyone's pick to win the show. Southworth had fought in Pride, but didn't put up much of a fight, and had a mediocre record, losing to the only 2 name fighters he ever fought (though he did have a win over Floyd Sword, a pretty tough fighter who was and still isn't very well known). Forrest had wins over Monson, Fulton, Braga, and Sonnen (who wasn't actually a name back then, though the other 3 were). Forrest also had a very good fight with Jeremy Horn in a fairly high profile tournament (the same tournament he beat Sonnen, and where Babalu submitted Shogun en route to winning the whole thing). He had retired after he received a broken arm in a KO victory in Brazil. TUF 1 brought him out of retirement, and anyone who knew anything at all about MMA had him pegged as the favorite.