UFN 121 - Werdum vs Tybura - Australia

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Gugabe said:
I think that he beat Overeem.
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The first two rounds were close, but I thought Reem won them both (as did all three judges). I can seen an argument for a 10-8 round 3, so 29-28 Reem or 28-28 are both reasonable scorecards. Werdum winning would have been a bit of a robbery IMO.
 
I have to play the Chambers over. Set at 1.5 and -150 just cause the 20 year old chick finished a couple 0-6 crackheads fast. Come on.
 
Why does Tai Tuvasa have the same exact tattoo as Tyson Pedro? It's legit worst tattoo in MMA. Looks like they have some ridiculous undergarment under their shorts.
 
t6p said:
The first two rounds were close, but I thought Reem won them both (as did all three judges). I can seen an argument for a 10-8 round 3, so 29-28 Reem or 28-28 are both reasonable scorecards. Werdum winning would have been a bit of a robbery IMO.
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It was like 7-2 strikes landed in the first round, with it being in Werdum's favor. Main issue was him having that weird slip/knockdown that looked a lot more serious than it was. I'm not saying it was horrific robbery, but it was a draw or Werdum 29-27 in my opinion.
 
Ok made a parlay:
Fabricio Werdum
Will Brooks
Ryan Benoit
Frank Camacho

350$ to win 1207$
 
Gugabe said:
It was like 7-2 strikes landed in the first round, with it being in Werdum's favor. Main issue was him having that weird slip/knockdown that looked a lot more serious than it was. I'm not saying it was horrific robbery, but it was a draw or Werdum 29-27 in my opinion.
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Fair enough. Of the media scores, 9 scored it 29-28 Reem, 2 scored it 29-29 (they both scored round 1 10-10) , 4 scored it 29-28 Werdum and 1 scored it 29-27 Werdum. I'd need to rewatch but the first round must have been closer than I remembered.

Regardless, I'm not really seeing the path here for Tybura. Werdum is better everywhere and Tybura is likely going to gas. The price obviously reflects that though.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Shelton will mix in wrestling lausa does not have good tdd and is a turtle off his back has no get up ability
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He may shoot for the odd td, but he will be confident enough in his boxing to beat Lausa and plan for that. Who knows... ill be on Lausa dec. Probably a sub 1.5u play
 
thewiggo said:
He may shoot for the odd td, but he will be confident enough in his boxing to beat Lausa and plan for that. Who knows... ill be on Lausa dec. Probably a sub 1.5u play
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I think he wrestles. He wrestled pantoja r1 but gassed in the altitude and wrestled Elliott and the Russian guy on tuf. No need to wrestle brooks was comfortably winning on the feet.
 
turbozed said:
I just finished watching tape for Means/Muhammad and here's my analysis. As always, please pick it apart and critique the hell out of it. You can even call me stupid if you like but just make sure to point out specifically where I'm wrong...

Means/Muhammad

A year ago if these two were matched up it would seem like a great style matchup for Means. Means the taller and rangier southpaw fighter with accurate striking and dangerous both at range and in the clinch with knees and elbows. Belal looked incredibly hittable against another southpaw in Jouban, getting dropped 3 times in the fight before impressing everyone on the short notice debut in the 3rd round.


Then of course, he had his lights put out last year by Luque with one punch. Belal had fought 3 times in about 4 months before getting KO'd so that might have contributed to it. It seemed a bit odd for a guy with the seemingly iron chin. In his two fights since, Belal has looked good, being able to overcome rangier and better strikers in Randy Brown and Jordan Mein. Admittedly, neither has shown the level of striking that Means has in the past but there must be some familiarity in fighting a similar type of fighter in 3 straight fights, especially since the clear path to victory for Belal is the same for each fight: clinch up, make it a dirty fight, make the other guy work, and slowly break the opponent down.


Tim Means started fighting professionally in 2004 and those 13 years of competition look to have caught up to him. The aggressive and stifling striking style hasn't been seen since August of 2016 where he lit up the debuting Homasi. Not a really stiff test for Means, who only appears to beat lower level UFC competition. Against Cowboy Oliveira, Means had little success getting outgrappled for most the fight. By the second round, he was completely on the defensive and looked to have completely emptied the gas tank before being tapping to the RNC. This was a bad look made worse since Cowboy didn't look fresh at all yet controlled Means rather easily.


In his recent fight against Alex Garcia, he looked like a completely different fighter. The aggression and output was almost completely gone. He didn't throw a single elbow all fight and threw maybe one knee in the 3rd round. It looks as if he completely changed around his gameplan to work around his cardio issues. While Means was able to defend takedowns and pot-shot Garcia at range, I don't think that Tim Means could avoid the grinding and ugly clinchfest that Belal will likely be able to put on him. If this was early 2016, Means as a -240 favorite would make sense, but after seeing his latest two performances, I see this line as being way off.


Can Means land a big left hand early and win? Possibly, but once a fighter becomes gunshy and less willing to pull the trigger, we rarely see them revert to being a killer again. The implied odds are suggesting Means wins this fight 7 out of 10 times. I'm not sure he wins this fight 5 out of 5 times. More likely than not, Belal clinches up and makes this an ugly fight that forces Means to just defend. +200 seems way off. Also, if Means employs the same outside gameplan as he did against Garcia, the over should've been set at 2.5 rds instead of 1.5.
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First, I wanted to say I Appreciate the breakdown and analysis. Agree with your assessment of Belal, he is a gritty, well rounded fighter. Tough guy to look good against unless you end his night early. A few things I don't agree with though:

I don't see it above, but beleive you mentioned in a different post that Cowboy was a big LW/smallish WW. Cowboy is 100% bigger than Belal and is a full sized WW, the fact he made LW doens't change that. Not quite a Rumble situation, but he said he walks above 200, no way that is a LW. Belal on the other hand is on the smaller end of WW and that could be an issue here as he must win the clinch matchup and get takedowns. Another thing I absolutely do not buy is that Tim Means has all the sudden lost his aggression, the dude is a savage. Two fights ago he was getting dq'd for obliterating Cowboy with a illegal knee, he is still looking to display violence every fight. I believe like others have mentioned he knew he needed a win, knew Garcia would slow, and knew Garcia has dynamite in his hands so he had to be catious. The problem I keep seeing for Belal is that he absolutely needs to wrestle and his best tds come from chain wrestling in the clinch, where Means is nasty. This puts Belal at a huge risk of being hurt or finished every time he tries to implement this gameplan. And if he doesn't and chooses to strike at range Means will chew him up. Randy Brown was winning at range. I am digging back into this one today to decide if I should hedge with Belal dec as I addmittingly overbet the opener as I liked the price and thought it would spike more. Will let you know if I change my opinion on any of the above or Belal's chances overall.
 
I got Tybura at +285

I think the theres money to be won on Behal at +180
 
Regarding Means I have a couple of questions for you all.

What do you guys consider Means' best UFC win? Best in my mind would mean a combination of beating a highly skilled opponent and looked impressive doing it.

Also, can you guys think of any fighter that has fought for over 13 years and still maintained their level of aggressiveness and power? Lawler won his title after 13 years of pro fights. I guess you can throw GSP in there but the 4 year layoff kinda throws that off.
 
turbozed said:
Regarding Means I have a couple of questions for you all.

What do you guys consider Means' best UFC win? Best in my mind would mean a combination of beating a highly skilled opponent and looked impressive doing it.

Also, can you guys think of any fighter that has fought for over 13 years and still maintained their level of aggressiveness and power? Lawler won his title after 13 years of pro fights. I guess you can throw GSP in there but the 4 year layoff kinda throws that off.
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He looked quite good against Oliviera in the first fight
 
turbozed said:
Regarding Means I have a couple of questions for you all.

What do you guys consider Means' best UFC win? Best in my mind would mean a combination of beating a highly skilled opponent and looked impressive doing it.

Also, can you guys think of any fighter that has fought for over 13 years and still maintained their level of aggressiveness and power? Lawler won his title after 13 years of pro fights. I guess you can throw GSP in there but the 4 year layoff kinda throws that off.
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He tore through John Howard, who actually tried to implement a similar gameplan to what Belal will need to do.

Agree with Wiki above, he was looking quite good against Cowboy first fight, which makes me believe that his foot was badly hurt early in the 2nd fight, as he looked totally different.
 
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