UFN 119 - Machida vs Brunson - Sao Paulo

[NorthernLights]

His takedown D looked pretty good vs Lee, who needed to stun him with kick to take his back. And Lee had some monster takedowns vs Ferguson.

If Trinaldo can stay on his feet vs Lee, he can probably stay on his feet vs Miller.

Fair enough, but he was taken down twice by Pearson not too long ago so I wouldn't assume that Miller can't do it. Either way, I'm on Trinaldo (and the over).

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Fair enough, but he was taken down twice by Pearson not too long ago so I wouldn't assume that Miller can't do it. Either way, I'm on Trinaldo (and the over).

Maybe he improved training for Lee. Guy must have an insane work ethic to be performing as well as he had into his late 30s

And I wouldnt assume that Miller can't do it. It just doesnt seem like a major weakness to fret and may even be a strength

 

[Sadistics]

Something I haven't seen mentioned is Colby went into the Warlley fight with a rib injury

 

[AxeMurderer]

I took case and Maia. I don’t think Colby’s stand up scares Maia at all and I also think Colby isn’t afraid to go to the ground with Maia and that will be his down fall. Maia is unrelenting and will get that sub.

 

[2bet]

Colby "The Cringe" Covington

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I like the old Brazilian dudes in this one: Maia and Trinaldo.

Trinaldo should be somewhere in the -200 to -250 range IMO. He has aged like fine wine, and has been killing it in his late 30s. Had a phenomenal round 1 vs Lee till Lee caught him with head kick in round 2. Great wins vs Felder + Medeiros. Solid decision vs Pearson + strong KO of Laprise.

Miller's not bad at striking, but Trinaldo is much sharper with good head movement to avoid counters. His fight vs Medeiros was really impressive for 5.5" reach disadvantage. If TDD is as improved as looked vs Lee, Trinaldo is going to win 30-27 pretty often.

If it's not improved and Miller takes this to the mat a couple of times, it will likely look closer to the Parke fight where Trinaldo still has a chance of stealing the decision at home. And Miller has only has 2+ takedowns in 2 of last 23 fights (4 vs Alves, 2 vs Castillo).

Incidentally those 2 fights are his only decent wins in recent memory, and Alves missed weight by 7 pounds after a horrible cut and Castillo was a split decision. Other than that he has a KO of Gomi's corpse and a questionable decision vs Lauzon, and could easily be 3-6 in his last 9 fights.

Even though Miller is 5 years younger, he might be further past his prime than Trinaldo.

 

[Antagonist88]

Props up. Not liking much

 

[EzFlyer]

Colby "The Cringe" Covington

I like him so much more when he's fighting than when he's talking.

 

[EzFlyer]

Props up. Not liking much

Same..

 

[Kowboy Karl]

I like him so much more when he's fighting than when he's talking.

Both are rather boring

 

[ill800]

Same..

Maia itd +315 was the only thing I considered hitting

 

[cagebrain]

Dm*

you know you can edit posts right? We're not sending text messages here

 

[cagebrain]

How jacked do Maia's pecs look in this photo

He must've learned from B cup chicks, squeezing the arms together

 

[cagebrain]

After watching the BJJ scout video, I'm even more confident in Maia. The only way I can see Colby winning is by doing exactly what Woodley did. However, Colby is not as good a striker as Woodley making that game plan even less likely, and on top of that I don't think he has it in him to avoid grappling at all costs with Maia.

If they grapple, I see it as one way traffic for Maia. Worst case scenario Colby gets top position on Maia, and I see Maia quickly reversing the position and passing to the back like clockwork. Colby takes risks on the ground and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Maia catch a sub, and if not I can see him winning the decision via backpack a la Masvidal. I see the grappling in a similar way to Maia vs Gunnar Nelson. In that fight the odds were also close, and we were expecting Gunnar to be competitive with Maia on the mat, which was not what happened at all. Gunnar couldn't resist grappling with Maia, and I think Colby will fall into the same trap.

I have a hard time seeing Colby winning 2 of 3 rounds with a combination of striking and top control. I just think Maia end up in a dominant grappling position too often.

I was balls deep on Maia vs Masvidal, and I was balls deep on Woodley vs Maia. If Maia gets back to +150 I'm probably gonna drop a bomb.

Can anyone make the case for Colby? Am I missing something?

 

[northsofia]

The only think that concerns me about Maia is his cardio, at this age it is not getting better.

 

[Gugabe]

Prettymuch agreeing with people about Colby. I just don't see his path to victory aside from an ugly, grinding split decision in the stand-up... since he's hardly a good kickboxer without the threat of the takedown to keep people honest.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Wow I feel sorry for the Maia bettors, going to be a rough night for you guys, it's not too late to join the easy money campaign. Don't waste your money on a 40 year old fighter on his way out.

Covington is championship material, we all know that Woodley is a bum champion and Colby said he used to whoop that ass in the practice room.

Who ever they put in front of Covington is going to get destroyed, I'm talking 30-26, you saw what he did to Kim, beat him at his own game, you saw the improvements in the striking too, lit him up.

Colby isn't cocky, he's just confident, hard not to be when everyone you fight gets ragdolled.

Besides Ryan Hall's performance vs Gray Maynard is there a more cowardly performance than Maia's performance vs Masvidal, probably the worst fight I've seen all year.

Maia is the most boring fighter is UFC history all he wants to do is hold positions and stall until the clock runs out. No one wants to see that, especially not the UFC, which is way they are feeding Maia to Covington, he's a stepping stone.

Colby is going to out strike him, Colby's striking looks better every fight and I'm very confident he pieces Maia up and defends takedowns easily.

 

[Sadistics]

Niko Price +130
Vicente Luque -170

Over 1.5 -170
Under 1.5 +130
-

Jack Marshman +220
Antonio Carlos Junior -300

Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
-

Hacran Dias +130
Jared Gordon -170

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
-

Max Griffin +160
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -210

Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150
-

Preliminary Card - (UFC Fight Pass, 7PM ET)

Deiveson Figueiredo +150
Jarred Brooks -190

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
-

Christian Colombo +135
Marcelo Golm -175

Over 1.5 -110
Under 1.5 -130

 

[Joseph Budden]

Damn spot on openers except maybe Price but pass for now

 

[piglord]

FUCK THOSE LINES.