Love Machida here. I’m usually a Brunson mark but see this as a terrible MU for him. I know Lyoto has been away for two years but he’s not the type of fighter who relies heavily on athleticism and/or power and will look old overnight imo. Not like a Rashad Evans. Instead, he is a fighter who relies on footwork, technique, reflexes and the mistakes of his opponents whom he sets traps for. In fact, even his older brother Chinzo is making waves in Bellator right now and he’s like 41 or so. Additionally, he hasn’t been in very many wars and has always taken excellent care of his body. That is to say, he’s not a Big Nog or Saku type of guy who were basically Frankenstein‘s monsters once they hit 35 years old.
What’s more, Derek Brunson has always reminded me of a Melvin Guiilard type a fighter. An excellent athlete with massive potential but you never know what to expect from him besides the unexpected. Historically he has shown terrible fight IQ and even in stylistically favorable matchup’s he will just charge him with his chin high on a flagpole ready to be countered and put to sleep. Alternatively, there are other times were he will look excellent early and then completely fall off the proverbial cliff. Out of nowhere. He is the exact type of guy that will rush in on Machida only to get countered and flatlined.
I believe DB has a round to get Machida out of there and then the fight starts to swing heavily towards The savvy veteran. Machida has traditionally feasted on aggressive wrestlers like Ryan Bader and Tito Ortiz. He deals with wrestling guys better than any other style. One of his best performances came when he won the title against Rashad Evans. I believe this is very similar to that fight, and expect a similar outcome.
Machida in rounds three, four and five is most play territory +1400, +1800 and +2200 respectively. Even if you put just a flier on it.
