UFC Vegas 78: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos, August 12

When I think of Tafon Nchuckwi I always remember his fight against Park. I don't remember seeing anyone be as slow motion as him. If Dobson fights like he did in rd 1 against Malkoun he is really gonna be lighting Nchukwi up like a christmas tree.
 
UFC Vegas 78 Main Event Prediction

Vicente Luque (21-9) Vs Rafael dos Anjos (32-14)

In the main event, we are presented with an all-Brazilian showdown that promises an exciting matchup.

Significant attention surrounds Vicente Luque's return from a previous brain injury, a concern that holds merit. Yet, given his medical clearance, it can be assumed that he is ready to compete.

With a 7-year age gap, Vicente holds the youth advantage, and his striking appears to be superior.

RDA will be no easy out and has much more experience in 5 round fights.

However his age is catching up to him and we will probably see a big decline sooner then later.

This is an extremely close matchup and there is good arguements for both sides.

I am siding with Vicente Luque to get the job done.

Pick: Vicente Luque ML (+100)
 
Sometimes I wish there was more to be able to see/tell what fighters have actually worked on between fights, especially if they've been out for a while. This Amorim/Connejo fight is giving me some really weird vibes for some reason.
 
Miller/Santos:

Miller's one of the worst girls on the roster, but I still like her to finish for 4.25. Santos is better at everything, as most girls are, but Miller is longer, gritty as hell, and has great cardio. Santos has the shorter punches and unless she's laying on top or dictating the pace, I've seen her slow down quite a bit. Doubt I'll have much on Miller ITD considering how terrible she is, but she does have a somewhat decent chance of wearing Santos down and getting a stoppage.

Santos might make this look laughably easy and just lay on Miller, but I don't think she's worth betting on just because of how gritty Miller is. It's also Santos's UFC debut, and she doesn't have a ton of fights regardless. The bright lights might lead to her making some silly mistakes, which is the sort of thing a fighter like Miller would capitalize on.

Amorin/Monsterrat:

Think there's a stoppage in Amorin/Monsterrat too. Amorin has that 1 round cardio and sub threat, but Monsterrat has grappling and an elite headlock. Amorin probably gets the sub in the first. If she doesn't, she'll probably get headlocked. She's sorta lanky though while Rat is not. I can see Amorin taking the back from the headlock. Even if she doesn't, she'll be working hard for everything against Rat on the mat, which will slow her fast. Rat can probably sub her from there, or finish her on the feet if she doesn't want to wrestle.

Lucindo/Viana:

Lucindo should probably win this, but you'd be betting mostly on her not doing something dumb and getting caught in the first round. Viana won't win a decision. She never has. All 13 wins have been finishes and all but 1 were in the first. Every other time she went past round 1 she lost. She slows a heap. Lucindo can be a little wild when she exchanges and might get caught, but I expect her to be a little patient because of Viana's finishing threat. Lucindo was careful against Brogan, who is probably the second shittest WMMA fighter in the UFC behind Miller, who beat her. If Lucindo is playing it safe against girls like Brogan, she'll likely do the same against Viana until rounds 2 and 3.

The move up to FLW might give Lucindo some trouble. Viana is going to be longer and hit harder, but Lucindo has actually had plenty of fights at FLW before.
 
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Think Luque gonna get a stoppage over RDA. Odds are pretty accurate though.i wouldnt worry about Luques brain too much. If doc clears him it means hes fine. Theres literally no reason for somekind of corruption play here to kill off Vicente.

Cub looked like absolute shit vs Martinez. Johnny aint even a heavy striker and Cub looked like he was about to die there. Reflects on the odds. Hakeem might have hit the wall though and not getting better. If Cubs performance was mostly due to weight cut this is closer to 50/50. Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest to see Cub hit with something and going down in the first. Theres only so much a body can take.

I kinda hate Khalil. As a fighter only Im sure he is a swell guy in person. But I absolutely cant stand his inconsistency. I hope the headcase eats something big and Daukhaus finishes the job.

Polyanna is iq test for Iasmin. Lets see if she shall pass
 
xhaydenx said:
Miller/Santos:

Miller's one of the worst girls on the roster, but I still like her to finish for 4.25. Santos is better at everything, as most girls are, but Miller is longer, gritty as hell, and has great cardio. Santos has the shorter punches and unless she's laying on top or dictating the pace, I've seen her slow down quite a bit. Doubt I'll have much on Miller ITD considering how terrible she is, but she does have a somewhat decent chance of wearing Santos down and getting a stoppage.

Santos might make this look laughably easy and just lay on Miller, but I don't think she's worth betting on just because of how gritty Miller is. It's also Santos's UFC debut, and she doesn't have a ton of fights regardless. The bright lights might lead to her making some silly mistakes, which is the sort of thing a fighter like Miller would capitalize on.
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Miller is going to be at a striking disadvantage in this fight and Santos loads up on all her shots; she seems to hit relatively hard.

If Miller wades into the clinch with her head down like she has done in every single professional fight she is probably going to eat an overhand right from Santos and that could end the fight right there. Miller has looked somewhat rocked in every single fight I have watched of her. Sure she fights through it but she hasn't fought an opponent as agressive, somewhat recklessly at times, on the feet as Santos.

I took Santos KO/TKO at +1300 which also covers a GNP finish which I think is nearly as likely as a sub.
 
xhaydenx said:
Miller/Santos:

Miller's one of the worst girls on the roster, but I still like her to finish for 4.25. Santos is better at everything, as most girls are, but Miller is longer, gritty as hell, and has great cardio. Santos has the shorter punches and unless she's laying on top or dictating the pace, I've seen her slow down quite a bit. Doubt I'll have much on Miller ITD considering how terrible she is, but she does have a somewhat decent chance of wearing Santos down and getting a stoppage.

Santos might make this look laughably easy and just lay on Miller, but I don't think she's worth betting on just because of how gritty Miller is. It's also Santos's UFC debut, and she doesn't have a ton of fights regardless. The bright lights might lead to her making some silly mistakes, which is the sort of thing a fighter like Miller would capitalize on.

Amorin/Monsterrat:

Think there's a stoppage in Amorin/Monsterrat too. Amorin has that 1 round cardio and sub threat, but Monsterrat has grappling and an elite headlock. Amorin probably gets the sub in the first. If she doesn't, she'll probably get headlocked. She's sorta lanky though while Rat is not. I can see Amorin taking the back from the headlock. Even if she doesn't, she'll be working hard for everything against Rat on the mat, which will slow her fast. Rat can probably sub her from there, or finish her on the feet if she doesn't want to wrestle.

Lucindo/Viana:

Lucindo should probably win this, but you'd be betting mostly on her not doing something dumb and getting caught in the first round. Viana won't win a decision. She never has. All 13 wins have been finishes and all but 1 were in the first. Every other time she went past round 1 she lost. She slows a heap. Lucindo can be a little wild when she exchanges and might get caught, but I expect her to be a little patient because of Viana's finishing threat. Lucindo was careful against Brogan, who is probably the second shittest WMMA fighter in the UFC behind Miller, who beat her. If Lucindo is playing it safe against girls like Brogan, she'll likely do the same against Viana until rounds 2 and 3.

The move up to FLW might give Lucindo some trouble. Viana is going to be longer and hit harder, but Lucindo has actually had plenty of fights at FLW before.
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Cannot see that headlock working on Amorim. She's light years beyond Vlismas on the mat. She'll have a back take within seconds from that position imo. At least early...her cardio did look like absolute dogshit in her debut. Spent a lot of energy trying to finish in rd 1, maybe adrenaline dump due to debut...

I think Amorim reminds everyone how good she is on the mat here. Maybe not quite Dern level, maybe not even Blanchfield....but not far off. Just...dat cardio LOL.
 
sonhow said:
Think Luque gonna get a stoppage over RDA. Odds are pretty accurate though.i wouldnt worry about Luques brain too much. If doc clears him it means hes fine. Theres literally no reason for somekind of corruption play here to kill off Vicente.

Cub looked like absolute shit vs Martinez. Johnny aint even a heavy striker and Cub looked like he was about to die there. Reflects on the odds. Hakeem might have hit the wall though and not getting better. If Cubs performance was mostly due to weight cut this is closer to 50/50. Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest to see Cub hit with something and going down in the first. Theres only so much a body can take.

I kinda hate Khalil. As a fighter only Im sure he is a swell guy in person. But I absolutely cant stand his inconsistency. I hope the headcase eats something big and Daukhaus finishes the job.

Polyanna is iq test for Iasmin. Lets see if she shall pass
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Not sure Luque has the TDD to stop RDA from winning rounds via grappling. It doesn't look like that part of RDA's game has fallen off despite the age and mileage. Luque is a capable grappler but not RDA level imo, just a solid guy with good chokes.

Standing, assuming there's no residual effects from the head injury...I'd agree Luque has the edge at this point. I just don't see RDA being willing to stand and exchange a whole lot here.
 
One thing about JP Buys is that he's face pretty damn stiff competition and I'm not talking about his ex wife here. Silva and Jackson are easily upper echelon of their divisions and Durden also on nice winstreak. McGhee is basically unknown to me. Cant tell too much about his last fight considering Newson either has flashes where he looks good or he just looks like shit through the whole fight. McGhee didn't look any better than I'd expect anyone employed to look vs shitty version of Newson. And there is always that chance JP finds that fighting groove and gets his highly credentialed wrestling going. Im willing to take that gamble and play JP with these odds.

With this out of the way look for McGhee to knock him out in the first with ease lol.
 
mkess101 said:
Not sure Luque has the TDD to stop RDA from winning rounds via grappling. It doesn't look like that part of RDA's game has fallen off despite the age and mileage. Luque is a capable grappler but not RDA level imo, just a solid guy with good chokes.

Standing, assuming there's no residual effects from the head injury...I'd agree Luque has the edge at this point. I just don't see RDA being willing to stand and exchange a whole lot here.
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I do agree it seems pretty logical outcome if RDA beat him like he did beat Felder and Moicano. But something about this seems too obvious and feels like we are writing Luque off too easily. Man was looking like top contender and everyone picked him vs Neal and Belal. Well as we have found out nobody beats Belal anymore and Neal looked absolutely fantastic in that fight. Just seems like the overall perception of these three is betraying us. Maybe I'm overthinking it but we shall see.
 
sonhow said:
I do agree it seems pretty logical outcome if RDA beat him like he did beat Felder and Moicano. But something about this seems too obvious and feels like we are writing Luque off too easily. Man was looking like top contender and everyone picked him vs Neal and Belal. Well as we have found out nobody beats Belal anymore and Neal looked absolutely fantastic in that fight. Just seems like the overall perception of these three is betraying us. Maybe I'm overthinking it but we shall see.
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I agree to a point...but like you said odds are almost even so it's not like the books or betting public see this as one way traffic. Luque is live as hell. And RDA will fall off that cliff sooner rather than later. But even just last summer he was 2-2 with Fisiev going into rd 5, and imo Fisiev is a better striker than Luque. I just need to see that dramatic drop-off from RDA before I don't believe he's able to impose his grappling on a guy like Luque.
 
carolinagrapple said:
Lol, I was listening to DFS by the numbers podcast and he said this is the first card he could not find a bet
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This is the first card in awhile that I won't have any bets on. I'm sticking to PrizePicks today.
 
sonhow said:
One thing about JP Buys is that he's face pretty damn stiff competition and I'm not talking about his ex wife here. Silva and Jackson are easily upper echelon of their divisions and Durden also on nice winstreak. McGhee is basically unknown to me. Cant tell too much about his last fight considering Newson either has flashes where he looks good or he just looks like shit through the whole fight. McGhee didn't look any better than I'd expect anyone employed to look vs shitty version of Newson. And there is always that chance JP finds that fighting groove and gets his highly credentialed wrestling going. Im willing to take that gamble and play JP with these odds.

With this out of the way look for McGhee to knock him out in the first with ease lol.
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I agree, McGhee was Subed pretty easily and early by a grappler in LFA a year ago.

I think JP probably gets KO'ed but from a gambling perspective JP SUB +700, JP SUB RD 1 +1400, RD 2 +2000 look the most appealing to me here... just sprinkles nothing crazy.
 
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