UFC Singapore: Max Holloway vs. Zombie, August 26

I for sure thought that I would be able to get Oleksiejczuk at dog odds... bit of a surprised that he is the favourite. Not sure if I like him enough to bet him as the favourite. I do feel that he could potentially out volume Chidi in this one though.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
I for sure thought that I would be able to get Oleksiejczuk at dog odds... bit of a surprised that he is the favourite. Not sure if I like him enough to bet him as the favourite. I do feel that he could potentially out volume Chidi in this one though.
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I hear you, Michal vs a rangy striker always makes me queasy ever since his contentious win over Modestas. Still, Chidi somehow lost a striking match to Duraev so the line should be accurate. Ugly fight.
 
Not sure if I'm misreading this but the line between Song Kenan and Rolando Bedoya seems way to wide at +230 for Kenan.

Kenan Song is a UFC veteran at this stage and he has been in there with some really good fighter. Sure, he has lost to the better fighters but he has at times made it fairly competitive when he's not getting knocked out. His chin is questionable for sure so this fight could end at any time for him.
On the other side you have Bedoya who seems to be everyone's favourite all of the sudden. Most people didn't give him a snowballs chance in hell vs Khaos. Then Khaos shows up and looks like thrash so Bedoya makes the fight close and now all of the sudden he is a huge favourite, I don't get it. I feel that people are way overrating Bedoyas performance and doesn't take in to account that it was more so Khaos that looked bad.
I know that Bedoya hasn't been knocked out, but I believe Kenan has the power to knock out anybody. I do ever so slightly lean Bedoya because I think he can perhaps out volume Kenan, but I'm not sure.

I think this fight is really really close and the odds doesn't reflect that. Had to take a small 0.5 unit shot on Kenan at these odds.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I hear you, Michal vs a rangy striker always makes me queasy ever since his contentious win over Modestas. Still, Chidi somehow lost a striking match to Duraev so the line should be accurate. Ugly fight.
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He did not really lose that fight imo. Also Duraev won because he had some top control not because he was winning the striking exchanges...
 
Giga Caceres has to be Giga KO or Caceres sub right? Dont see any other outcomes happening. Wonder what lines will be but a decision would be shocking.

I like Jarno Errens a lot at +165 as a dog.

I remember thinking Volk -800 against KZ was wide and he ended up looking -2000 lol. Max is at -1000 right now..... I think this will be more competitive than that but hard to see how KZ wins.

Playing Spann round 1 props and under 1.5 if they arent juiced to shit. Smith is done.

Also taking Taila.... Kinda shocked at +130. I thought her and Erin's lines were flipped. Shes more athletic, bigger, powerful and better striker. Her grappling so far has arguably translated better against top comp too. Aldrich fight was a bad look for Blanchfield she was getting touched up and clinch bodylock TD which Taila uses a ton got her down. She actually couldnt even get Aldrich down who had the only TDs of the fight. That was a year ago but nothing about running through Molly predictably who has bad grappling or Andrade performance a good one suggests to me she should have this pricetag. Shed need to be a Tatiana Suarez level grappler at least to overcome other deficiencies and while she might be better grappler here I don't think its by a meaningful amount.
 
Why are people so high on Ryan Spann? He’s a complete bum. He’s Bellator level fighter at best. Anthony Smith should easily beat him, he’s done it before, he’ll do it again ever easier this time.
 
Georges Hefner said:
Why are people so high on Ryan Spann? He’s a complete bum. He’s Bellator level fighter at best. Anthony Smith should easily beat him, he’s done it before, he’ll do it again ever easier this time.
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Too many red flags on Smith side in my opinion.
That sweet UFC desk gig is not making fighters better. He was acting really strange in his last fight. He looked like shit in his last 2 fights. Personally I don't think he wants to fight any more, he is just collecting paychecks and he will occasionally do the UFC a solid stepping in on short notice to keep his desk job. I think he has mentally checked out from the fight game.

Spann isn't that good, but I think he is much more motivated at this point and that should be enough to win this one.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Too many red flags on Smith side in my opinion.
That sweet UFC desk gig is not making fighters better. He was acting really strange in his last fight. He looked like shit in his last 2 fights. Personally I don't think he wants to fight any more, he is just collecting paychecks and he will occasionally do the UFC a solid stepping in on short notice to keep his desk job. I think he has mentally checked out from the fight game.

Spann isn't that good, but I think he is much more motivated at this point and that should be enough to win this one.
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What I was thinking. Smith looked straight up like a dude who just didn't want to get meme KO'd vs Walker. Losing a boring decision was fine, so he played it ultra safe and wouldn't engage much.

Spann isn't special but he's aggressive as hell and is gonna be looking to end it early to get revenge. While Lionheart may well be tentative again and get steamrolled. Either way I think it ends early. Either Spann takes him out quick or does something dumb and gets caught in a sub.
 
Much like Chiesa, some people still think these guys (Smith) are what they used to be and should find a way to win. Smith would have easy been finished last fight if Walker wasn't afraid to go for a finish. Crazy weird fight of two people scared to get finished. Chiesa and Smith mentally checked out.

I guess Smith CAN win (I took him by sub vs Spann last time) but if he does, my take is it will be a Spann mistake(s) much more than credit to Smith for a quality win. I am certainly not taking Smith this go round, though I also don't know if I have to stomach to take Spann.
 
Georges Hefner said:
Why are people so high on Ryan Spann? He’s a complete bum. He’s Bellator level fighter at best. Anthony Smith should easily beat him, he’s done it before, he’ll do it again ever easier this time.
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No ones high on Spann lol. Anthony is done, damn near wanted out last fight and Spann is one of those round 1 and under 1.5 money printers. Smith is probably still better overall fighter but I think hes checked out and ready to go early.
 
Junior Tafa feels like a pretty safe play. I actually like his boxing better than his brother, and his brother already knocked Porter out. Don't see Porter successfully wrestling Junior the way Mo Usman did, and if he doesn't, he's going out.
 
Can Breski wrestle or grapple at all?
Cause if he can't I think the Salsa boy will land the bigger shots and bully him standing.
 
MixMartialFarts said:
Can Breski wrestle or grapple at all?
Cause if he can't I think the Salsa boy will land the bigger shots and bully him standing.
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He can a little bit. He wrestled a lot in his DWCS fight. He can have good volume striking either way, though Waldo will definitely land the more impactful shots.
 
rev0lver said:
He can a little bit. He wrestled a lot in his DWCS fight. He can have good volume striking either way, though Waldo will definitely land the more impactful shots.
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Yea in the Buday fight he probably should have won he was throwing lots of volume and mixing up combos to the head, body and legs. It was a lot of pitter patter and kind of sloppy looking combinations though. I feel like if he closes the distance and tries that against Waldo Waldo will tee off on him. Waldo still looks pretty raw but the guy is an explosive athlete and when he decides to throw hard he throws with bad intentions. I'm surprised Sherman survived the shots he took against Waldo.
 
Is there any logic in NOT putting every dollar I own down on Nakamura? Even at 1.14 if I put 20k of savings down that's a guaranteed $2800 profit right? Could even sprinkle some on the 1st round props to boost it up.
This is a semi tongue in cheek post
 
glenn777 said:
Is there any logic in NOT putting every dollar I own down on Nakamura? Even at 1.14 if I put 20k of savings down that's a guaranteed $2800 profit right? Could even sprinkle some on the 1st round props to boost it up.
This is a semi tongue in cheek post
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I mean obviously I think Nakamura just smokes him in the first. Hard to see any area where Fernie is better. Nakamura can probably win by wrestling or by striking.

But... Nakamura is very untested. He has barely seen a 2nd round in his career. I did think he looked really tired after knocking a guy out in one of his road to the UFC fight and that was like towards the end of round 1 only.
I could see a world where Fernie survives round 1 (not sure how) and then we see Nakamura completely falls of a cliff and gasses hard. The guy is built like house and fights at a mad pace, it's highly unlikely he has the cardio to go for 3 rounds.

With all that said, Nakamura should smoke Fernie but I'm not going anywhere near Nakamura ML at these odds.
 
There’s an overreaction from people hammering Nakamura R1 Sub line all the way from +1000 to +375. His R1 KO line is now +230 which is great. Regular R1 is -155 and KO is -135

I’m dropping a decent sized bet on that +230 with no regrets. Should be no higher than +150 imo

Also taking Garcia 2/3 +2500/2800 in case Nakamura doesn’t get the finish and gases
 
glenn777 said:
Is there any logic in NOT putting every dollar I own down on Nakamura? Even at 1.14 if I put 20k of savings down that's a guaranteed $2800 profit right? Could even sprinkle some on the 1st round props to boost it up.
This is a semi tongue in cheek post
Click to expand...

There was a similar skill gap imo when Ji Yeon Kim fought Mandy Bohm and through a mix of incompetent judging, refereeing, poor in fight decision-making, and Kim fighting on a torn ACL she managed to lose a fight where she was significantly better in every meaningful aspect of MMA. Nakamura is obviously infinitely more skilled than Kim and Garcia as well is infinitely more skilled than Bohm but the skill gap is similar relatively speaking imo.

Fernie's most realistic path to victory is Nakamura getting DQed. He does commit a lot of fouls and lost a point in his first round fight on Road to UFC. If you ran the fight 100 times it probably does happen a few times.
 
glenn777 said:
Is there any logic in NOT putting every dollar I own down on Nakamura? Even at 1.14 if I put 20k of savings down that's a guaranteed $2800 profit right? Could even sprinkle some on the 1st round props to boost it up.
This is a semi tongue in cheek post
Click to expand...

Nothing could go wrong do it
 
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