UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

[MMAOracle]

<first card>
de la rocha vs adams
I wanted to find a juicy line and I stumbled on this. However, the line is fairly correct. (74 vs 26) --> I think its actually 70/30 so Adams is slightly hyped IMO.

<my assessment>
De La Rocha
+super ultra extra durable (He is on Ortega's level of durability)
+he has some TD skills
+he is okay on ground
+he is improving all the time (immense improvement since his UFC debut)
+more UFC exposure than Juan Adams
-he has no gas tank (he is done after the first round. He becomes pillow fist afterwards)
-he is 39 I think. A little too old for mma. (obviously there are exceptions like manuwa and romero)

Juan Adams
+big, I mean huge
+very athletic for a man his size (hand stand at 260lb?)
+his grappling is on the good side (compared to De La Rocha, Juan Adams is at least 2 levels ahead. He teaches grappling.)
+fair striker
+young!
-poor gas tank

Sorry if this prediction is obvious. Adams wins by TKO in the 2nd round.
<edit>
wrong numbers!!! *special thanks to Chemmy for educating my dumbass!

(Adams)
currently, Adams money line is at -375, so the implied probability is ~79% . However, historical data shows that fighters with ~-375 wins 82% of the times. You actually benefit by 3% when you bet on him.

(De La Rocha)
De La Rocha's money line is at +310 , so the implied probability is ~24%.
However, historical data shows that fighters with +310 wins ~22% of the times. You are actually 2% disadvantageous when you bet on him.

Stats and tape tells me that Adams is a good bet.

 

[MMAOracle]

After UFC 231 and NFL today I have decided to take a break for a good while I'm only 24 so i have time.. Best of luck to all and congrats to the Holloway backers and anyone who made money last night

do not come back here until you saved up $100k man. From that 100k, you should only risk 1k~4k as your total BR. From that, you need to divide that into 50~100 units. You should be happy if you won more than 4 units. Perhaps you already know this but gambling is all about discipline and control.

 

[MMAOracle]

Al Iaquinta is far too big of an underdog to Kevin Lee in this rematch. Al won the first fight and looked good in his sporadic appearances since then, even though Lee is very good, I have to hit Al at this price of +260.

Same for Edson Barboza as a +105 underdog to Dan Hooker. Hooker looks impressive and much improved lately but not sure Edson should be an underdog to him at this point, Hooker hasn't beaten someone with Edson's kicking game or experience.

really? I know you are sharp better Gunn so please share with us your insights!
I mean Lee is at -310. This means that the fight is perceived ton be 68% Lee and 32% Aiquinta. What are your views?

 

[MMAOracle]

Dude you make 3U bets on guys like Bochniak with the justification being you were impressed by how he was basically good at getting beaten up. I don't even want to mention the 5U parlays. Sorry but watching you try and talk the talk with guys I've seen posting here for months is laughable.

to be fair, bochniak's fight with Zabit was impressive meanwhile dawadu was a bit chinny in his last performance. Kyle's 3u was kinda retarded. I think 1u would have been at max for Bochiniak. But you know, a man cant always be right.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I thought Miller was quite good in his last outing where he sparked and subbed Alex white in the 1st round. He sighted his recent couple of years bad form was due to limes disease he got from a tick bite that lay undetected for 2 years. Once he got diagnosed and found out how to live with the condition he says he has changed the way he trains and lives and is feeling more himself again.

Alex White is not good though. Maybe I'm being too dismissive of Jim, and Charles is a bad fighter to trust, but this must be Oliveira's fight to lose.

 

[matthew55]

do not come back here until you saved up $100k man. From that 100k, you should only risk 1k~4k as your total BR. From that, you need to divide that into 50~100 units. You should be happy if you won more than 4 units. Perhaps you already know this but gambling is all about discipline and control.

every single thread there has to be someone lecturing others on "bankroll management" and how to gamble with other's money. Can we just stick to the fights unless asked about how big or small someone should wager with their own money?

 

[MMAOracle]

He's right you know

Al at current odds is a STEAL

what is your percentage prediction on Aiquinta and Lee? 45% and 55%

 

[MMAOracle]

every single thread there has to be someone lecturing others on "bankroll management" and how to gamble with other's money. Can we just stick to the fights unless asked about how big or small someone should wager with their own money?

my bad. I only said this because you were 24. You are very young and prolly inexperienced in gambling. I was once young and inexperienced. I lost during my initial years of gambling and felt like crap because
1) my BR was my entire asset (I would lose everything but I would not care because I would just wait until the next pay check to blow it all off)
2) I lacked gambling experience (I thought betting 100 to win 100 was not bad. I saw a guy win 500k in a 6month period with an initial BR of 2k. I thought all good gamblers should be like him. In retrospect, that is absurd. He lost everything on his 7th month and went into a debt. A ROI of 4% should be considered solid.)
I offered you these pieces of advice not as a condescending way but to a young man who may possibly fuck up his life because no one took the time to write this for him.
Be grateful young cunt. (oops, you are not the right guy. sorry. I won't try to digress from the purpose of the thread. my bad)

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Dude you make 3U bets on guys like Bochniak with the justification being you were impressed by how he was basically good at getting beaten up. I don't even want to mention the 5U parlays. Sorry but watching you try and talk the talk with guys I've seen posting here for months is laughable.

I suggest you take your attention to your bets, not others. If you didn't have some weird fascination with me (like someone else) I guess you would not give two shits what I bet. And Kyle could've won if he fought like he fought before but his gameplan was all wrong. How I was suppose to know he'll shit the bed? He had all the tools to win this. Dawodu is nothing special, to the degree that he let this one sided fight go to the judges and even one judge wasn't too sure he won this, I was very close to win no matter what shit you talk about me.

I don't want to ignore people that sporadically write good things like you or the Oblivian guy, but I might have too, you tire me with the nonsense that you write and I have to respond because If I don't you think you are right and you certainly not.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Even though I think Dwight Grant is terrible I think hes good enough to KO Ottow. Ottows striking is terrible, his wrestling is terrible and his BJJ is just OK. Grant is huge, physical strong, has ridiculous reach, good punching power and killer instinct. For Ottow to have any chance hes going to need his BJJ. I think this fight will play out standing and that can only mean Ottow gets KOed. No bet on thus fight yet.

Trevor Smith may have good wrestling but Cummings has great BJJ and his TDD is good. He has a layered defense against wrestlers where he can try to defend the takedown, move to attacking with front chokes, submit them from his back or just get back to his feet. He's shown some power, his hands are going to be much better than Smiths and Smith has a tendency of getting KOed in under 1 minute. I'm thinking Cummings wins ITD but if he doesnt I expect him to take the DEC. Smith is goin to have to clinch a lot, it's the only place I can see him being somewhat effective. No bet on this fight yet.

So far I have Green and Iaquinta at +255, Meerschaert at +195 and I'm taking Barboza soon as he gets back to +110 or better. Want to play Griffin but his SUB losses and the bad spot he got into in his last fight give me pause against a guy like Ige.

 

[raketmannen]

I thought Miller was quite good in his last outing where he sparked and subbed Alex white in the 1st round. He sighted his recent couple of years bad form was due to limes disease he got from a tick bite that lay undetected for 2 years. Once he got diagnosed and found out how to live with the condition he says he has changed the way he trains and lives and is feeling more himself again.

He got that "under control" a while ago though, like in 2016, not just before the White fight. Only had really tough opponents since before White aswell so. Took Poirier, Pettis and Trinaldo to decisions

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Took Poirier, Pettis and Trinaldo to decisions

And if my memory serves well he only lost all the rounds to Pettis, he took a round from Trinaldo and from Poirier?

 

[MMAOracle]

My assessment of Dan Hooker and Barboza

Dan Hooker
+fairly accurate strikes
+some ground game
+some take down
-poor defense <-- serious concern (has his hands too low)
-mediocre footwork

Barboza
+excellent striker
+some TD defense
+mean kicks
+good defense
+good footwork
-turtle on the ground!

Lately, Barboza's skills is under question due to his poor ground defense. He had two humiliating defeats back to back but I personally think Hooker is not on Barboza's level.
1) Hooker is unable to do aggressive take downs like Khabib or Lee.
2) Hooker has never faced an opponent of Barboza's caliber

Melendez had similar grappling skills as Hooker and he was unable to utilize them effectively against Barboza. As such, I think Hooker will not be able use it effectively at all. Then this will largely boil down to a striking match. As such, I favor Barboza at 60/40. So at the current line -110, it is not too bad. Barboza is slightly undervalued. I am putting down 1.5u right now.

 

[Cockadoodle]

He got that "under control" a while ago though, like in 2016, not just before the White fight. Only had really though opponents since before White aswell so. Took Poirier, Pettis and Trinaldo to decisions

Oh ok, I understood he only recently got the diagnosis and before the hooker fight. Will have to take that uncertainty about his long term improvement into account

 

[BigAl-ThePal]

my bad. I only said this because you were 24. You are very young and prolly inexperienced in gambling. I was once young and inexperienced. I lost during my initial years of gambling and felt like crap because
1) my BR was my entire asset (I would lose everything but I would not care because I would just wait until the next pay check to blow it all off)
2) I lacked gambling experience (I thought betting 100 to win 100 was not bad. I saw a guy win 500k in a 6month period with an initial BR of 2k. I thought all good gamblers should be like him. In retrospect, that is absurd. He lost everything on his 7th month and went into a debt. A ROI of 4% should be considered solid.)
I offered you these pieces of advice not as a condescending way but to a young man who may possibly fuck up his life because no one took the time to write this for him.
Be grateful young cunt. (oops, you are not the right guy. sorry. I won't try to digress from the purpose of the thread. my bad)

Yup wasn't me who replied but you are 100 percent right. I lack discipline and need to save up a bank roll. Thanks and have fun yall

 

[raketmannen]

And if my memory serves well he only lost all the rounds to Pettis, he took a round from Trinaldo and from Poirier?

He did good in the first round against Trinaldo but slowed down (I think he said that he "I don't got it anymore" or something like that to his corner between round 2 and 3), hurt Poirier with calf kicks and had him limping around in the third so he probably won that last round but got pretty dominated up to that

 

[raketmannen]

Oh ok, I understood he only recently got the diagnosis and before the hooker fight. Will have to take that uncertainty about his long term improvement into account

No I remember taking that into consideration before his Alves fight, but maybe he's got it under better control now, didn't he say this was the best he ever felt since getting diagnosed after he beat White?

 

[GrantSorenson]

Font is playable down to -200 here. Size advantage and hes got pretty much every advantage. The guys he's lost to in the ufc are a clear step above pettis.maybe Pettis is a touch faster but font should win

KGB should win too

Wish I got the better odds that were available though. Still I've backed both and done a parlay too

 

[Oblivian]

Even though I think Dwight Grant is terrible I think hes good enough to KO Ottow. Ottows striking is terrible, his wrestling is terrible and his BJJ is just OK. Grant is huge, physical strong, has ridiculous reach, good punching power and killer instinct. For Ottow to have any chance hes going to need his BJJ. I think this fight will play out standing and that can only mean Ottow gets KOed. No bet on thus fight yet.

Trevor Smith may have good wrestling but Cummings has great BJJ and his TDD is good. He has a layered defense against wrestlers where he can try to defend the takedown, move to attacking with front chokes, submit them from his back or just get back to his feet. He's shown some power, his hands are going to be much better than Smiths and Smith has a tendency of getting KOed in under 1 minute. I'm thinking Cummings wins ITD but if he doesnt I expect him to take the DEC. Smith is goin to have to clinch a lot, it's the only place I can see him being somewhat effective. No bet on this fight yet.

So far I have Green and Iaquinta at +255, Meerschaert at +195 and I'm taking Barboza soon as he gets back to +110 or better. Want to play Griffin but his SUB losses and the bad spot he got into in his last fight give me pause against a guy like Ige.

I'm on Cummings here because I think he can keep it standing and beat up Smith standing, but I will say that Cummings is not good off his back. That's my only concern. I know he's a black belt, but he's looked pretty bad anytime that I've seen him on his back.

 

[Ballsaque]

Even if such video exists, what the hell would it prove? Sparring is very different than an actual fight. Muhammed Ali would look horrible sparring, and get "dominated" by a slew of journeymen people never heard of.

Conor McGregor has lost sparring sessions to Artem Lobov and other assorted scrubs. Most recently, Cody Garbrandt trumpeted how badly he supposedly dominated TJ Dillishaw in sparring, and there was probably even some truth to it. Lot of good it did him.

Judging fighters based on sparring exploits against teammates is only slightly better than trying to judge them based on how they look and sound in interviews.

Well it was more sort of pointing out dilos champ being a retard as usual.