UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

[Larthus]

Dan Hooker is going to come out looking amazing in this. Barboza is great but on the decline whereas Hooker has improved exceptionally & now with Israel in the mix he looks like he’s training in a time chamber.

Probably going to lay $500 on Hooker at current odds, don’t think Barboza wins unless he lands a flash KO

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Im already on Iaquinta at +256. Better boxing, chin and cardio. No brainer. 1u

Think it's a 2-3 unit play, Salvador. No way he is that big of an underdog and he beat him the first time and his improvements are not enough to make him that big of a favourite, I would even argue he should not be favourite, fight should've been a pick 'em.

Can't believe Netto BJJ is the underdog! Is this a joke or what? He is gonna starch him like CDF did. Am I missing something? Pls. help you guys. I wanna redeem myself from that bad Bochniak bet. I want to bet on a good underdog, I don't want to bet juiced favourites in a parlay every time.

 

[Larthus]

I might be drinking the Dan Hooker kool-aid too hard here. Am I crazy in thinking this will be a career changing performance for him?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I might be drinking the Dan Hooker kool-aid too hard here.

He is better than Edson. He should beat him, but the odds are right, so I would not bet him.

But I am really starting to think Iaquinta/J.Silva +876 is the parlay of the night... Fucking temptiiing... I think they both should win easy. Even the worst case is some split decision. I don't know what to do, I don't know.. I feel the money from here, I can smell them... I wanna bet this parlay but I know it's not the smartest thing...

 

[matthew55]

I'll take Meerscheart sure

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Relatively unimpressed with what I've seen from Hooker, whereas Barboza is a really good striker with a few unfortunate flaws. Hooker can take advantage of those flaws, sure, but given his own questionale defense, +110 for Barboza looks good.

Need to watch a few more fights before I bet, though.

 

[Gugabe]

Relatively unimpressed with what I've seen from Hooker, whereas Barboza is a really good striker with a few unfortunate flaws. Hooker can take advantage of those flaws, sure, but given his own questionale defense, +110 for Barboza looks good.

Need to watch a few more fights before I bet, though.

Yeah. Hooker's strength of schedule lately hasn't really been incredible, and I feel like he gives Barboza the space to have a Barboza fight. I'd cap Barboza at like -150

 

[starfish01]

Wish I had more time lately to watch tape. After a line scan I think ML Barboza@110+ and Bobby Green at +250 look like they could be decent plays.

I dont think Hooker is going to be able to pressure Barboza with his arsenal or physicality like Barboza's recent losses or even when he was losing against Dariush. The fight will likely take place in KB range and in a firefight i have to tip it to Barboza. Would cap Barboza around -135.

I pick Klosse to win but that line is simply way too wide IMO. Unless I am remembering incorrectly(particularly with Green) both fighters usually make their bouts grindy and ugly(Green via fairly meat and potatoes boxing and Klosse with his clinchwork) and that can mean wishy washy decision. Green via ugly split or 29-28 is much more possible than the odds dictate, with or without odd scorecards.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

How are we not talking about these guys??

What's with the Hooker talk? Yeah, he should win but he is favourite and this is his toughest fight (on paper) in his new weightclass. I say fuck him and his odds. Let somebody else scratch his head about that fight. I hate to bring this back to the Holloway-Ortega discussion, but it's not worth it. How many people really profited big from Holloway, being the №1 favourite toppic hands down of the previous thread.

20u on Nelson -125, 20u on Holloway -118

Ok, him. Anyone else?

$800 USD HOLLOWAY LETS GET IT

Yeeeah, this guy (congrats by the way)
But I can't remember really lotta ppl betting big big numbers on Holloway. A few for sure. I don't have the balls of steel to bet that much, honestly.

Guys, we have the most badass real estate agent here and a roided out brazilian, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Jordan3399]

You need pressure to beat Barboza which Hooker isn't great at. Think Hooker needs a finish probably off a counter to win. Barboza seems a great bet at + odds.

 

[Jordan3399]

How are we not talking about these guys??

What's with the Hooker talk? Yeah, he should win but he is favourite and this is his toughest fight (on paper) in his new weightclass. I say fuck him and his odds. Let somebody else scratch his head about that fight. I hate to bring this back to the Holloway-Ortega discussion, but it's not worth it. How many people really profited big from Holloway, being the №1 favourite toppic hands down.

Ok, him. Anyone else?

Yeeeah, this guy (congrats by the way)
But I can't remember really lotta ppl betting big big numbers on Holloway. A few for sure. I don't have the balls of steel to bet that much, honestly.

Guys, we have the most badass real estate agent here and a roided out Brazilian, what could possibly go wrong?

Because big bets on a sport like this is a terrible idea. Especially against a guy like Ortega. Its not about how many people won big on Holloway cause thats not actually smart. Its about how many lost big on Ortega when he was at evens with a guy as great as Holloway.

Regardless, its irrelevant to this thread.

 

[Papi]

Kevin lee will win handily but i cant blame people for being tempted at the +2××...kevin lee has the better standup. Wrestling. Subs. And the most important thing he is improving at a faster rate. Everytime we see him he looks a lot better than the last. Gonna have to tape hooker/barb..but my memory and gut says theres value on barb

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Kevin lee will win handily

Bold

 

[Jordan3399]

Lee probably dominates tbh. Khabib looked sloppy af vs Iaquinta and still dominated. Still think a small bet on Iaquinta is worth it given the line and last fight. Lee's chin is questionable too and could get caught.

 

[Gugabe]

Green might actually be a good spot there. Klose is gonna give him a brawl, and Green does well in those.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I slowly move forward in my scouting of Al's and Kevin's fights.
I think Al has at least 60/40 chances here if he does not try to go for a leg locks and just give away top position AND does not swing wild punches to give clear entry to his hips for Kevin. If he doesn't give Kevin easy takedowns, more than likely this fight is going to be 90% striking. Standing up is still in Al's favour. Kevin has added some new wrinkles to his game like the jab, a powerfull kicks and his side on "philly shell" stance is a thing of the past, but his main weapon is still his submission-wrestling. He has unresolved problems with his weight, he had fought one time past the 3rd round, but his cardio was not tested at all - Barb didn't offer much of any resistance TBH. Raging Al fought 5 rounds v Khabib on what was a 24 hour notice? And he didn't looked unprepared.
So I don't know. It's not a lock of course, but Iaquinta on a big + odds v guy he already beat is too tempting.

Other very strange odds are on J.Silva to beat J.Gordon. I mean, come on, guys, really? He is the underdog! I know he is not Ferreira, but he has very good TDD, insane athleticism and good cardio. Guy is fast, hits hard. He is a bit of a counter-puncher so that could be a problem if he does't get rid of Gordon and this goes to decision, but Gordon is not Pichel, he has very poor footwork, plodding and not good striking defence.

 

[MMAOracle]

No tape and just initial predictions.
Al Aiquinta
-good pressure
-ultra durable
-some grappling skills
-good TD defense
-good gas tank
ultra durable

Kevin Lee
-fair striking
-fast
-fair grappler (he thinks he is good, he is a mediocre at best)
-good TDs
-good gas tank
*he gets too excited when he sees an opening for a victory (remember the chicken dance after Barboza kicked him in the head)
This guy is all around pretty solid.

my initial prediction is that Lee wins by dec. Lee 60%/ Aiquinta 40%. Seeing that Aiquinta is at +270 ATM, there is some value but I am still hesitant to bet on either side. IMO, Aiquinta is more consistent and Lee is a bit volatile. This further complicates the matter. At the end of the day, I'd pick Kevin Lee to take the win but at -320, it is pass for me for now. I will be revisiting this fight after I view the tapes and compare numbers.

 

[Gugabe]

No tape and just initial predictions.
Al Aiquinta
-good pressure
-ultra durable
-some grappling skills
-good TD defense
-good gas tank
ultra durable

Kevin Lee
-fair striking
-fast
-fair grappler (he thinks he is good, he is a mediocre at best)
-good TDs
-good gas tank
*he gets too excited when he sees an opening for a victory (remember the chicken dance after Barboza kicked him in the head)
This guy is all around pretty solid.

my initial prediction is that Lee wins by dec. Lee 60%/ Aiquinta 40%. Seeing that Aiquinta is at +270 ATM, there is some value but I am still hesitant to bet on either side. IMO, Aiquinta is more consistent and Lee is a bit volatile. This further complicates the matter. At the end of the day, I'd pick Kevin Lee to take the win but at -320, it is pass for me for now. I will be revisiting this fight after I view the tapes and compare numbers.

Lee's topgame is incredible, dude. Not sure why you think he's mediocre at best. I'd rate him up with Rockhold in the most dangerous dudes to have on top of you in the sport. Not much of a bottom player, but 'mediocre grapper' is totally unfair.

 

[ADD]

I played Silva at +180
Not that impressed with Gordon, he is very hittable and have a limited offensive toolbox.
This is how i see it.
Gordon will probably be pressing with his boxing and try to secure the rounds with takedowns.
Silva have good movement and i think he can keep the distance and pick Gordon apart with kicks and avoid getting stuck with the back against the fence. When Gordon is trying to shrink the distance using combinations he leave his chin open and then Silva will have a good opportunity to test Gordons chin with counters....... or Silva makes this a 50/50 fight standing because its in his nature to do so. Trying a flying knee and get taken down by it and lose the fight by split desition.
At +180 I test my luck.

 

[Shoulder]

Lee will win this easy, I’m just debating how he’ll do it.