UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman
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I like the look of Sosoli's head movement. I'm a litt
I added 1.5u at 1.90. As I wrote in the bets thread, I'm interpreting the line change as "comparing-their-records-at-a-glance-bias".
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I agree, where the lines are now the value is on Boch
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Where do you actually cap the fight? You're fine betting Woodson at +130, but agree there's obvious value on Boch at -105ish? You could argue there's some value either way if you cap the fight in the middle (giving a very low margin for error) but to bet either side would assume it's capped perfectly and any bet would only have a small edge at best.
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Some props i considered heavily, anyone can convince me to pull the trigger or keep refraining from betting them:
Brendan Allen submission at +1000 - He has 7 submissions(I know, wiki capping) and i like his ground game. He is young, has been in multiple 5 rounders already and knows how to finish when he gets the chance. Holland has given up his back before and at +1000, i was considering this one.
Molly McCann TKO/KO at +325 - Her opponent has terrible striking defence and wings her punches. I was actually pretty shocked seeing her fight. I know its WMMA, but Molly McCann has "fine" boxing and i can see her putting her opponent away with a flurry if she lands a clean one.
I also liked Tanner Decision and Rosa decision lines. Can easily see it happening.
Brendan Allen submission at +1000 - He has 7 submissions(I know, wiki capping) and i like his ground game. He is young, has been in multiple 5 rounders already and knows how to finish when he gets the chance. Holland has given up his back before and at +1000, i was considering this one.
Molly McCann TKO/KO at +325 - Her opponent has terrible striking defence and wings her punches. I was actually pretty shocked seeing her fight. I know its WMMA, but Molly McCann has "fine" boxing and i can see her putting her opponent away with a flurry if she lands a clean one.
I also liked Tanner Decision and Rosa decision lines. Can easily see it happening.
Still surprised there's so little attention on Boser-Spitz. Spitz really isn't very good. Boser isn't a worldbeater but he's durable, powerful, experienced, and has gone 3 or 5 rounds many times at HW. Unsure of picking a prop line but Boser as a small favorite is a great line imo
D
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Just sitting here thinking about Weidman/Reyes more.
Weidman has legitimately gotten unlucky as fuck.
Winning every round vs Rockhold until he threw a lazy spinning back kick. Winning against Romero until he got kneed into another dimension. Winning vs Jacare until Jacare hit him with a hook that didn't even hit his chin, just a weird spot on the side of the head.
I'm not taking anything away from the aforementioned fighters, but I think Weidman wins those fights 7/10 times.
Reyes knows that Weidman is going to be the best grappler that he has faced, so he won't throw as much confidence or with as much power like he did against say Jared or OSP.
And if Volkan is able to give him so much trouble in the wrestling department, Weidman will be able to as well.
I think Weidman getting and keeping Kelvin down is huge. People just think Kelvin's a blown up WW, but I disagree, Kelvin is legit as fuck, AND unlike Reyes he comes from a wrestling background.
Also, Reyes doesn't cut A LOT of weight. He's bigger than Chris, but not by as much as people are making it out to be. Probably 10lbs tops coming into the fight.
I had 5u on Weidman, added 2u more and 1u on his sub line @ +600
Weidman has legitimately gotten unlucky as fuck.
Winning every round vs Rockhold until he threw a lazy spinning back kick. Winning against Romero until he got kneed into another dimension. Winning vs Jacare until Jacare hit him with a hook that didn't even hit his chin, just a weird spot on the side of the head.
I'm not taking anything away from the aforementioned fighters, but I think Weidman wins those fights 7/10 times.
Reyes knows that Weidman is going to be the best grappler that he has faced, so he won't throw as much confidence or with as much power like he did against say Jared or OSP.
And if Volkan is able to give him so much trouble in the wrestling department, Weidman will be able to as well.
I think Weidman getting and keeping Kelvin down is huge. People just think Kelvin's a blown up WW, but I disagree, Kelvin is legit as fuck, AND unlike Reyes he comes from a wrestling background.
Also, Reyes doesn't cut A LOT of weight. He's bigger than Chris, but not by as much as people are making it out to be. Probably 10lbs tops coming into the fight.
I had 5u on Weidman, added 2u more and 1u on his sub line @ +600
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You can't argue he's got unlucky in that many fights. He won a round vs Rockhold then gassed, Romero cruised R1 then easily took over when he wanted. Looked alright against Jacare but getting KOd but a far past his prime grappler? Weidman didn't do a good job at keeping Kelvin down at all, he hit a lot of TDs and eventually got the sub but if he showed great top control he wouldn't have been averaging a TD every 2 minutes. Even Vitor looked like he was going to beat him until he decided to try and punch his way out of mount.
Think you're looking way too much into a couple very brief grappling moments by an underrated fighter in Volkan and making far too many excuses to justify Weidman not being on a clear and obvious decline.
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Very smart of Dimes to release Meatball-Belbita points handicap a whopping 9 minutes before the event starts, have it at -5.5 instead of the usual -3.5, and start it at -280 Meatball.
D
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I may very well eat my words tonight, but I just really don't think Reyes is on Weidman's level.
Weidman's level of competition has been so much higher than Reyes. Reyes has benefited from the LHW division being dogshit for the last few years.
And I know Weidman is slightly on the decline, but his striking looked great against Jacare, maybe the best it has ever looked.
I just think Weidman's grappling advantage is a lot more pronounced than Reyes' striking advantage.
That, and his slightly better cardio should win him this fight.
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you were close. Just change “stiff” to “standing”
Shit-eating wildman, not just yet.
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You'll get yours
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I think Yair, Woodson & Brady really showed up much more improved than what people were expecting. More so Woodson/Brady. They looked fairly average when I watched tape on them and then they looked completely different in their debuts. Yair just looked phenomenal in the first 8 minutes or so, and had Stephens rattled and confused.
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These threads should close after the fights start so people can not come back in here and brag about their reads.
Yeah also even a broken clock is right twice a day. What annoys me though is the 'know-it-all attitude' of some of the posters here, who even after making a wrong pick somehow come up with reasons why their bet was great anyway (like oh well he didn't wrestle, his fight IQ is so bad, that was a fluke!, that superclose decision fight was a robbery etc. Etc. ). And also the arrogance before a fight and being 100% sure of what is gonna happen is pretty annoying. The fact of the matter is that there is also a big luckfactor involved which is hard to measure, but it is there for sure.
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Came back to say Soccer Steve was an idiot for betting Kevin Holland.
