I understand what you mean about Ode standing just outside range, but that's efficient distance management when done correctly - I look at Strickland, he does something similar, minimal movements, although he has a much smaller silhouette than Ode, making him harder to hit. I don't really see Adashev chopping the leg, but I certainly advice him to. Ode
will stand on the lead leg, like you say, and if he looks to counter rather than check/avoid, those will add up pretty quickly.
I would give Adashev a better chance of finishing Ode than the other way round, but I think this one goes the distance. I actually don't think it will be all that exciting, unless something crazy happens early on and both guys just let their guards down. I think it will be a plodding, moderately technical affair, and I can only see Adashev playing catch up on the numbers.
Anyway, good luck Captain! I agree with most of your analysis, but I just happen to think the sum total favours Ode