UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

[Rhood]

I have a question about the Poliana Botelho/Karine Silva fight.

When I first looked at the betting lines, Karine Silva was the favorite at -163. Poliana was at +145
Now the lines are more evenly matched and Poliana is +100 and Silva is -112

Why is everyone throwing money on Poliana?
Statistically Karine Silva is the better fighter.
I initially had her as my first pick.
But when I saw the lines change so drastically, I started to doubt myself.

I've never seen either one of them fight before.
Is there something I don't know about?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I have a question about the Poliana Botelhovs/Karine Silva fight.

When I first looked at the betting lines, Karine Silva was the favorite at -163. Poliana was at +145
Now the lines are more evenly matched and Poliana is +100 and Silva is -112

Why is everyone throwing money on Poliana?
Statistically Karine Silva is the better fighter.
I initially had her as my first pick.
But when I saw the lines change so drastically, I started to doubt myself.

I've never seen either one of them fight before.

How do you make bets never having seen either fighter?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Need that big brain yo!

@BigSteve @FimbulFightPicks

 

[Rhood]

How do you make bets never having seen either fighter?

I do a full background check.
Yeah I know it sounds silly, but I check a lot of things that most people don't pay attention to.
Seeing a fighter's highlight reel is only 40% of what I dig up.
I don't watch a lot of WMMA, so this fight was a bit puzzling.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I do a full background check.
Yeah I know it sounds silly, but I check a lot of things that most people don't pay attention to.
Seeing a fighter's highlight reel is only 40% of what I dig up.
I don't watch a lot of WMMA, so this fight was a bit puzzling.

I personally wouldn’t rely on stats and highlights when I’m risking my money

anyhow, you’re on the right side imo. I posted about this fight a few days ago

I have Silva capped at -150, and that’s because of limited tape. I haven’t seen the 3 round decision she lost.

she could easily end up looking north of -200 if her cardio holds up. I don’t think botelho has much for her honestly

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Is Menifield the gift of the century here? https://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/The-FFFiles-Its-All-Been-a-Pack-of-Lies-187007

Now he has even less wins, 19-12 hahaha

 

[Stat_Collector]

Now he has even less wins, 19-12 hahaha

Alonso is like 90% of my bets with 70% Munoz.

 

[PuertoRican]

How do you make bets never having seen either fighter?

Dude sounds like a degen.

The Sherdog betting forum is the perfect place for him.

 

[Siver!]

It is an awful line lmao. Def taking a small stab at Ige. All the casuals inflating the line seeing him as an undefeated Russian. He's a good fighter, but had some difficulties with old man Lentz lmao.

Mike Grundy also gave Movsar some problems.

Ige is about as live as they come, with Movsar taking a significant step up having dropped rounds to lesser fighters.

Line way, way too wide.

 

[carolinagrapple]

Menifield moved -70 cents today... I guess the books saw my hammer

 

[BigSteve]

Need that big brain yo!

@BigSteve @FimbulFightPicks

I will do a live full card breakdown sometime today

 

[BigSteve]

going live in 10 @Captain Chesapeake



New joint channel for people that are following the older ones

 

[Slohog]

going live in 10 @Captain Chesapeake



New joint channel for people that are following the older ones

Liked and will watch later. Any reason I need to go to youtube to watch it rather then just her?

 

[Oblivian]

Any grapplers here think he stands a chance against Damon?

decent creds
* DIV 2 Collegiate Wrestler
* Midland Invitational Competitor
* Wrestling Illinois State Place Winner

Damon's
NAIA All American- assuming this is wrestling and not baseball.

Yes, but his best chance is actually anti-wrestling here and keeping it standing for the most part. He is probably competent enough if forced to engage a little bit in grappling, but using his speed on the outside and get Damon reaching is his best bet. No idea if he has the fight IQ for that though or if his team will train him that way. I've been pretty solid on betting for/against Jackson in the past. I definitely wouldn't touch Damon at this price.

 

[The Disasters]

Yes, but his best chance is actually anti-wrestling here and keeping it standing for the most part. He is probably competent enough if forced to engage a little bit in grappling, but using his speed on the outside and get Damon reaching is his best bet. No idea if he has the fight IQ for that though or if his team will train him that way. I've been pretty solid on betting for/against Jackson in the past. I definitely wouldn't touch Damon at this price.

I wish more fighters thought like that. If your opponent is better than you at what you're best at, you have to look for where you have the edge. 99% of the time both fighters fight the style they're best at with no regard for their opponent.

 

[Oblivian]

I wish more fighters thought like that. If your opponent is better than you at what you're best at, you have to look for where you have the edge. 99% of the time both fighters fight the style they're best at with no regard for their opponent.

It's what separates some really solid fighters. GSP was great at switching it up. He could go out there and be very takedown heavy one fight, but then he'd put on a jab clinic the next. With this being short notice and up a weight class, I don't think we can hold our breath for a great gameplan. With that said, Damon has a lot of holes that I think a lot of fans aren't seeing due to his recent success. He's been matched up with a lot of grapplers lately. Not saying this one isn't different, but I think we're seeing Damon mispriced here and that will continue with a win.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Also don’t get the love on ode osbourne

fight should be a pickem. Adashev is going to pressure the hell out of him for 3 rounds. No reason why he can’t destroy his legs like he did with Benoit.

Tapology out of their minds thinking ode kos him. Who is ode knocking out that he’s all of sudden going to sleep adashev who has a solid chin? Jerome Rivera?

I dont even think ode can take him down. This is going to be a closely contested striking battle and adashev was holding his own against a better rangier striker in su.

vergara would’ve beat ode and probably finished him had it been a 5 round fight. He pressures and throws looping shots like adashev but adashev is faster and much more polished.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

I favour Molina, but I think he's getting overhyped

Zhalgas decision +300 worth a stab imo

 

[ExitLUPin]

Thoughts on Damon stoppage/DQ at -138? He's a good dynamic finisher all around and IMO best fighter out of Fortis yes even better than Neal to me. I just don't know much about his opponent.

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.