UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2, September 16

[DabanggData]

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2, September 16

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101864-ufc-fight-night

https://fightodds.io/odds/4774/ufc-fight-night-grasso-vs-shevchenko-2

 

[Tebowned]

I'll take Grasso again and by decision this time. I think she'll be a little more prepared with her wrestling defense.

Daniel Lacerda so exciting they're gonna let him go potentially 0-5 in the UFC.

 

[sonhow]

I'll take Grasso again and by decision this time. I think she'll be a little more prepared with her wrestling defense.

Daniel Lacerda so exciting they're gonna let him go potentially 0-5 in the UFC.

Yeah I actually give her the striking edge and with confidence. Shes been outwrestled in the past so this is a bit worrying. But Valentina aint a completely natural wrestler it seems unlikely she could just blanket her and take three rounds.

 

[Thesnake101]

Might take Reyes as a dog against Levy. He might be old, injured, not that good and filled with ring rust, but dammit Levy does not deserve to be a big favorite over anybody. Dude went life and death with Breeden. Like the JDM odds too, don't think Kevin has the right style to beat him.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Loopy - even though I’m looking to fade her against almost anyone else

jasmine …. She’s a dog who’s finally putting all the mma skills together …. Tracy wants to grapple
But she won’t outwrestle jas - and her personal shit and long lay-off just spells this is bad news - I think jas is about to go on a run perosnally

and Kopylov will fuck Fremd up - he’ll be able to stuff the takedowns and light Josh up

I usually avoid betting much on wmma but this card my big parlay I’m locking in right now will be loopy / jas / Kopylov

 

[Stat_Collector]

Might take Reyes as a dog against Levy. He might be old, injured, not that good and filled with ring rust, but dammit Levy does not deserve to be a big favorite over anybody. Dude went life and death with Breeden. Like the JDM odds too, don't think Kevin has the right style to beat him.

He's fighting Charlie Campbell now.

Charlie Campbell ("The Cannibal") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

 

[Thesnake101]

He's fighting Charlie Campbell now.

Charlie Campbell ("The Cannibal") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

Welp, think I'll just hit Campbell KO now instead.

 

[Broe.]

I'll take Grasso again and by decision this time. I think she'll be a little more prepared with her wrestling defense.

Daniel Lacerda so exciting they're gonna let him go potentially 0-5 in the UFC.

Well Valentina was up 2-1 and she was winning the 3d round. I personally think 1.65 is very generous for Valentina. Grasso has always struggled with her takedown defence.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Welp, think I'll just hit Campbell KO now instead.

yeah he's getting murdered in the 1st degree. my number one pick for rnd 1 stoppage. rnd 1 prop.

 

[benebox]

Well Valentina was up 2-1 and she was winning the 3d round. I personally think 1.65 is very generous for Valentina. Grasso has always struggled with her takedown defence.

I'm def betting Val at these odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Tracey and Jasmine is a fight that could go to a draw. Equally matched.

Tracey has more mma experience(started mma training earlier) + better movement. But she is slightly smaller and under reached. She can get taken down but pop back up. Jazz looks a lot heavier on top ctrl. I can see a lot of reversals and scrambles to top position here. I do see Tracy as having better reversals and bjj .

Jazz is more likely to throw sloppy stuff, but she does have decent leg kicks and snappy jab-straight , as does Tracy also. Tracy is the younger fighter and i give her the edge. Tracy is the slightly cleaner fighter as well .


at -125 tho not sure if it's worth it at those odds. Cortez decision will be plus odds i imagine. the best way to play. I might just throw a 10$ on a small sprinkle draw 6600+ prop.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Tracey and Jasmine is a fight that could go to a draw. Equally matched.

Tracey has more mma experience(started mma training earlier) + better movement. But she is slightly smaller and under reached. She can get taken down but pop back up. Jazz looks a lot heavier on top ctrl. I can see a lot of reversals and scrambles to top position here. I do see Tracy as having better reversals and bjj .

Jazz is more likely to throw sloppy stuff, but she does have decent leg kicks and snappy jab-straight , as does Tracy also. Tracy is the younger fighter and i give her the edge. Tracy is the slightly cleaner fighter as well .


at -125 tho not sure if it's worth it at those odds. Cortez decision will be plus odds i imagine. the best way to play. I might just throw a 10$ on a small sprinkle draw 6600+ prop.

How would a draw scenario look like? I agree that this is a very close fight, but a draw would mean someone needs to get at 10-8 round the lose two rounds. Neither of these girls are likely to score 10-8 without also winning rest of the fight.
I get that any +6600 is a longshot, but I don't see how it would play out.

 

[sonhow]

How would a draw scenario look like? I agree that this is a very close fight, but a draw would mean someone needs to get at 10-8 round the lose two rounds. Neither of these girls are likely to score 10-8 without also winning rest of the fight.
I get that any +6600 is a longshot, but I don't see how it would play out.

Someone could lose a point. This fight will include a lot of wrestling so fence grabs or knees to downed opponent could happen. Also Tracy when gets her wrestling going can be very dominant so could get 10-8.
Its pretty unlikely but I could see it happening.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Someone could lose a point. This fight will include a lot of wrestling so fence grabs or knees to downed opponent could happen. Also Tracy when gets her wrestling going can be very dominant so could get 10-8.
Its pretty unlikely but I could see it happening.

How would a draw scenario look like? I agree that this is a very close fight, but a draw would mean someone needs to get at 10-8 round the lose two rounds. Neither of these girls are likely to score 10-8 without also winning rest of the fight.
I get that any +6600 is a longshot, but I don't see how it would play out.

Reference Cutelaba/Jacoby rnd 1.

you can get a 10/8 round with high ctrl time. Jacobi wasn’t deducted any points. I dont get the notion that draws only occur with illegal moves.


i sprinkled 10 bucks. i know its highly unlikely but im trying out draw bets , never played one before trying to play it when i see a equal skill set.

edit: well you said it sonhow at the end.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I haven't researched Cortez/Jasudavicius yet but just wanted to add that Melissa Gatto being able to take down Tracy Cortez 3 times in her last fight is a very bad sign imo. When Gatto fought Arianne Lipski I did a deep dive and watched back every single one of Gatto's professional fights and she has very low level takedowns, that were not working and easily defended on the regional scene, so they should absolutely not have been working at the UFC level to the point that Cortez was taken down 3 times by them.

If Cortez can be taken down by Melissa Gatto 3 times, who went 0/7 on takedowns in her very next fight, she can certainly be taken down by Jasmine.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I have Jazz edging Cortez in rnds 1-2 .

Jazz tends to fade in rnd 3 like she did against maverick , I have tracy winning a landslide rnd 3.

the fight has a higher chance of a split. with maybe Jazz or Tracy securing ctrl time and different judges scoring for one over the other.

 

[Thesnake101]

Cortez has been away for over a year now, so I wouldn't be surprised if she came back with better TDD.

Money's been slowly coming Jasmine's way these past few days, so I might pull the trigger on Tracy soon. I might be very off, but I think her ceiling is higher and she should win here.

 

[jnes]

I have Jazz edging Cortez in rnds 1-2 .

Jazz tends to fade in rnd 3 like she did against maverick , I have tracy winning a landslide rnd 3.

the fight has a higher chance of a split. with maybe Jazz or Tracy securing ctrl time and different judges scoring for one over the other.

Jasmine's best round was round 3 vs Maverick

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jasmine's best round was round 3 vs Maverick

No denying it, but we saw a lost in activity with grapping, and mav landed more than her last two rnds. Jazz still won , but there was less defense there. Her mouth was wide open too , a little more labored.

 

[Mackronus]

No denying it, but we saw a lost in activity with grapping, and mav landed more than her last two rnds. Jazz still won , but there was less defense there. Her mouth was wide open too , a little more labored.

Stat Collecter, out of curiosity, do you prefer betting woman's UFC bouts? And if so, why? I know it's random but I've noticed your often heavily involved in conversations regarding the female bouts compared to the men. Maybe I'm misreading though! Enjoy your analysis regardless.