UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

[MuffinsAppletree]

https://www.tapology.com/p/645590-24241700.png

 

[BelugaBets]

Tough to pick against Jan, one of the GOAT underdogs. Thinking Rakic probably wins but is not able to blow Jan out of the water like Glover did. Lookin at Rakic and possibly over 2.5

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Everyone made weight.

Jan and Rakic looks pretty romantic and Hadley's head is twice the size of Nascimento's despite being the same weight. He would be the flyweight GOAT if headbutts were legal.

That's my insight on those pics.

 

[The Disasters]

I don't know you guys are finding plays on this card. Taira by sub small is my only play. These prices are ridiculous.

 

[Bakayoko]

Cashed out most of my Rakić bet.Jan checks leg kicks really good,if Rakić can't hold Jan against the cage for long it could be tight.It probably will be.Left a bit counting on Rakić being probably improved after 14 month of preparing and Jan being off training because of the neck.
I'll take Grant and Cutelaba although prices are low.

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't know you guys are finding plays on this card. Taira by sub small is my only play. These prices are ridiculous.

Maximov by sub at nearly +400 (and similar prices for Jandi by sub) is a no-brainer for me really. He's a dog and Petroski struggles pacing himself against lesser grapplers, he's bound to get caught imo.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Maximov by sub at nearly +400 (and similar prices for Jandi by sub) is a no-brainer for me really. He's a dog and Petroski struggles pacing himself against lesser grapplers, he's bound to get caught imo.

I dont like the personalty of Maximov.

During his UFC Vegas 54 pre-fight press conference, Maximov explained why he doesn’t take criticisms of his style personally.


“It’s hilarious. I troll people, too. I don’t troll people, but sometimes I do if I’m bored,” Maximov said. “This week I was doing it because you got nothing to do all week. Just talking back. I don’t really care, I got 11 takedowns last fight. So I can see for some people why it would be boring, but it was just a strategical performance in that sense.

He trolls anyone criticizing his fighting style. Than he expects a fight against one of the beasts like makhachev?

 

[sonhow]

I dont like the personalty of Maximov.


He trolls anyone criticizing his fighting style. Than he expects a fight against one of the beasts like makhachev?

He is two weigh classes higher than Makhachev

 

[GoldenWolf87]

He is two weigh classes higher than Makhachev

Makhachev has fought the better completion. Punahele Soriano has lost to him through by the number of Takedowns that Maximov did and only i assume because Soriano doesn't have TD defense that he would needed against Maximov.

For example before Soriano fight he fought Brundage and won agaisnt him because he failed to defend the TDs.

Still he had only with four TDs. Not nearly as high as with Soriano's fight

 

[Bestonian]

Maximov by sub at nearly +400 (and similar prices for Jandi by sub) is a no-brainer for me really. He's a dog and Petroski struggles pacing himself against lesser grapplers, he's bound to get caught imo.

Maximov sucks

 

[StewDogg11]

Someone's write up from the discord:

quote

Maximov vs Petroski:
Line is pretty wide, but the problem is that Petroski is a unit early on but gasses bad late. There's gonna be a ton of grappling here which is making me lean Maximov. Petroski has a great grappling base but I don't think his cardio is up to par with Maximov's. On the feet I do favor Petroski, but then again I favor nearly every middleweight on the feet against Maximov. But I don't think it stays on the feet for too long. This whole fight just reeks of grueling grappling exchanges and that plays in Maximov's game. Petroski needs to bag the first two rounds to win. Maximov will hit a ceiling one day, but I don't think this is the fight. No play here

Candelario vs Taira
(This is a rewrite from the last time it was booked): Taira is a decent prospect, but this line is very wide. Taira still very young, but has faced dog crap competition. Taira has great backtakes and decent leg kicks, but Candelario is a legit fighter imo. I think this is an extremely close fight, but I lean Taira by the slightest of margins due to Candelario's history of giving up takedowns. Who knows, the Japanese kid could come out and smoke him and people will be like "Wow Taira -800 in hindsight", but I think this line is very wide and it'll be really close. Taira has wins over a whole retirement home lmao, like I can't gage how good he is based off his wins. Taira by Split Decision after a few convenient backtakes is my pick.

Hill vs Jandiroba:
Everytime Jandiroba has fought against someone without elite grappling, she rolls pretty easily. Esparza, Dern, and Ribas all have elite grappling and that nullified her own grappling. Hill falls into that "not elite grappling" category. I just can't see Hill effectively defending the grappling for 15 minutes. Jandiroba has taken down better grapplers, so this is gonna be tough for Hill. Should roll here. If Hill keeps it on the feet, she probably lights her up, but Hill has been taken down by Waterson, who's an Atomweight and Yoder(lol). She also got submitted by Markos which is a huge red flag. Jandiroba submits her pretty easily honestly. I played Jandiroba straight and Sub

Johnson vs Patrick:
Johnson would beat Charles Oliveira for the belt then lose it to Dave from the third row. P4P most inconsistent fighter. This guy is 3-9 in his last 12, which is brutal. And he has wins over legit competition like Ferguson and Barboza. And that Poirier knockout was some hood high school parkinglot shit. Like eyes rolled back, it was bad. Can't believe I'm gonna say this, but I don't see a reason why he shouldn't fuck Patrick up. Patrick is 39 years old, doesn't push a pace, and is a big quitter. Johnson isn't that bad of a grappler, he just struggles against chain wrestlers. Patrick is not that guy. Dude has no striking and gasses bad. Patrick ain't the BJJ ace Moises is and the cardio machine Guida is. If Michael Johnson pulls a Michael Johnson, then I guess I look stupid, but I think this is a great fight for him. I bet him here

Lee vs Araujo: I see a lot of people on Lee, but I actually like Araujo here. I honestly think she's the better fighter. Faster, more powerful, better grappling. Her main problem is that her gas tank isn't the best, so she fades in the third. Lee has good volume and a good chin that could win her the fight, but I like Araujo to win here. It will be rough because Lee does push a pace. If I was to describe Lee's style, it'd be "Cardio kickboxer." If Araujo pursues the grappling, she'll win a lot easier, but who knows. Fights goes to split decisions is a good bet. I bet Araujo by Decision here.

Hadley vs Nascimento: This is a very tough fight to call. Nascimento is a lot better than people give him credit for. Lost really close decisions to Paiva and Ulanbekov. I mean his strength of schedule has been pretty crazy. He boutta fight Moreno after this fight or something, like give the guy a break. I think this fight will take places in all areas of the game, and while Nascimento is too comfortable off his back, this will be a coin flip fight and Nascimento being the much more experienced fighter can make all the difference. I think the line is a little wide, so I gotta do with Nascimento. Has fought the much better competition as well and looked good doing it, despite not always winning. I took a shot at him.

Manuel Torres vs Camacho: I know he's pretty washed, but Camacho is still a legit grappler man and he can probably submit this guy no doubt. Torres is kind of stupid and has beaten no one but uber drivers. If Camacho grapples, this is gonna be a beat down. Camacho hasn't been grappling lately so who knows and obviously Camacho can't take a punch and could get bonked, but yeah, it really depends on how smart Camacho plays it. Camacho by Sub is a wide line. Camacho has also fought at 170, and their levels of competition are night and day. Camacho was fighting Dariush and Geoff Neal while Torres has been fighting Carlos from the food truck across the street. Camacho is very hittable tho so yeah he probably gets killed lol. I'm going with Camacho R2 Sub. Watch Torres KO him then gets someone crazy like Terrance Mckinney.

Chookagian vs Ribas: This has the potential to be a Chookagian field day. Chookagian has the weirdest ability to edge out decisions. She's like the WMMA Arlovski. I hate watching her fight. Always edging the fight with 50 air punches. It was honestly a crime that she couldn't submit Walmart Shevchenko. Isn't she a brown belt under John Danaher? And she couldn't finish a RNC on this bum on the mat. Cmon man. She should win this pretty easily. Will keep this on the feet and 30-27 her. People think Chookagian might knock her out because Ribas is chinny....but you gotta hit your opponent to knock them out. Get ready for "Hut hut hut!" While she jabs the air for a Decision. Biggest factor is gonna be the big size advantage. Like if Ribas was the same size, I'd honestly pick her to win, but yeah I see Chookagian using her size to keep it on the feet. Rooting for Ribas hard tho

Grant vs Smolka: Smolka gets chinned here. Maybe a few years ago, when Smolka had durability, he would've probably won this fight, but can't trust his chin. Though Smolka gets chinned, let's not act like Grant deserves to be -300 here. Dude has a couple wars and lands a couple KO shots and now he's Mike Tyson? Cmon this is wide. If Smolka doesn't get KOed, this fight becomes very interesting. Again, Grant probably finishes but be very careful. Grant went to a split decision with Popov who's a complete bum not too long ago lmao.
Spann vs Cutelaba: I think this is a really good fight for Cutelaba. Besides a random knockout, how does Spann win this? Cutelaba is also much more durable, while Spann's chin is styrofoam. Cutelaba needs one shot and I think it'll be enough. His gas tank and size disadvantage is a concern but besides that, Cutelaba is gonna kill him. Spann reacts to punches really weird and if he covers up like he usually does, Cutelaba is gonna murder him against the fence. Cutelaba by KO

Rakic vs Blachowicz: Jan always a live dog and he is...once again...an underdog. Jan looked pretty bad in his last fight and he's getting up their in age. Rakic not finishing Anthony Smith was a tragedy. Smith was on his deathbed and Rakic decided to lay on him. Rakic is such a gifted athlete, but man does he waste a lot of his gift. Rakic probably edges a decision honestly. Rakic can find grappling success early, but Jan is a legit grappler. This is gonna be a tough pick, but I'm going with Rakic. Blachowicz always a live dog of course and the odds may be a bit wide, but I still think Rakic wins. Jan not a bad dog here tho.

quote

Stopped reading when he said Johnson isn’t that bad of a grappler.

 

[Thesnake101]

Maximov sucks

Petroski sucks harder tho, you can't go to the third with Happy Gillmore.

 

[johno]

After watching tape on rakic I'm not so sure he's that good. He either needs to be on top of Jan or fighting a tepid outside game. He doesn't seem to respond all that well to pressure and you can see him tiring when the pace is higher than he likes. Also appears to be open to left hooks often

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC on ESPN 36 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-on-espn-36-pbp-discussion.4239832/

 

[Stat_Collector]

1. Taira sub'
2. Alan dec
3. Grant ko

• 100 for 2222
• betting 25 for 555

 

[The Disasters]

Maximov by sub at nearly +400 (and similar prices for Jandi by sub) is a no-brainer for me really. He's a dog and Petroski struggles pacing himself against lesser grapplers, he's bound to get caught imo.

Easy for me to say after the fight but that result is exactly why I just never bet inconsistent fighters with rapidly changing strengths and weaknesses. There was no scenario in that fight that I was confident enough to take a stand on.