UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić

Just watched taira/fukuda

fukuda kind of sucks. He didn’t even know how to properly lock down the leg from his half guard, leading to him giving up side control and mount.

He gets mounted again at the end of the fight and ends up falling right into a triangle. He has no idea how to defend said triangle and he proceeds to throw body punches further taxing his oxygen and then taps.

This is the guy taira won the belt from? Lol

taira looks like he just overpowers guys that he’s bigger and more athletic than to get his takedowns

yuto sekiguchi, another guy who looks pretty mediocre on the ground. Couldn’t properly lock down the leg from half guard and was pretty much mounted at will because he doesn’t understand what a knee shield is, just like the other bum fukuda

to his credit taira has good top pressure and hips which allows him to do pretty much whatever he wants with these amateur grapplers
 
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Kazda1 said:
Seeing a few on Jandiroba over Hill.....why?

Also am I wrong for feeling like I read Angela hill was expecting a baby recently? Or was that someone else?
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Jandiroba has good BJJ and should be able to take Angela Hill down.

Virna has faced a lot of other elite BJJ players/wrestlers which has turned those fights into kickboxing matches but that shouldn't be the case in this one.

I think she subs Hill quickly.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Jandiroba has good BJJ and should be able to take Angela Hill down.

Virna has faced a lot of other elite BJJ players/wrestlers which has turned those fights into kickboxing matches but that shouldn't be the case in this one.

I think she subs Hill quickly.
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FGTD is about -215 right now.....Jandiroba by submission is about +275 while her decision line is about +150. I would think a submission here might be unlikely. Do you think this might be easier than the Herrig fight for Jandiroba?
 
Kazda1 said:
FGTD is about -215 right now.....Jandiroba by submission is about +275 while her decision line is about +150. I would think a submission here might be unlikely. Do you think this might be easier than the Herrig fight for Jandiroba?
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Jandiroba is good at getting her opponents to the ground. Her takedowns may not be pretty but they are certainly effective early in fights. It's not a sure thing but theres a very real possibility Jandiroba takes Hill down early in the first round, takes her back in a scramble, and locks in a RNC.

Angela has never fought someone with the BJJ of Jandiroba and has largely avoided opponents who pose a submission threat. Jandiroba has subbed every opponent in the UFC she has fought that was not a high-level BJJ player or wrestler; neither of which Hill is.
 
Virna was a beast in invicta but so was Hill. Hill arguably 9-1 in her last ten bouts though. I wouldnt be surprised either way this one went.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Just watched taira/fukuda

fukuda kind of sucks. He didn’t even know how to properly lock down the leg from his half guard, leading to him giving up side control and mount.

He gets mounted again at the end of the fight and ends up falling right into a triangle. He has no idea how to defend said triangle and he proceeds to throw body punches further taxing his oxygen and then taps.

This is the guy taira won the belt from? Lol

taira looks like he just overpowers guys that he’s bigger and more athletic than to get his takedowns

yuto sekiguchi, another guy who looks pretty mediocre on the ground. Couldn’t properly lock down the leg from half guard and was pretty much mounted at will because he doesn’t understand what a knee shield is, just like the other bum fukuda

to his credit taira has good top pressure and hips which allows him to do pretty much whatever he wants with these amateur grapplers
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Tbf Candelario's recent comp isn't any better. His return from his layoff was him going life and death with a guy with an awful record that he'd already beaten years before and then he has a close (I thought he won tbf) fight with the physically pretty weak Altamirano.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Tbf Candelario's recent comp isn't any better. His return from his layoff was him going life and death with a guy with an awful record that he'd already beaten years before and then he has a close (I thought he won tbf) fight with the physically pretty weak Altamirano.
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I know you like taira, but how are you betting that fight? Where’s the value in taira?
 
Great to see all the opinions and breakdowns on here. I wanted to share a breakdown too but it seemed way too long if i´m going to post multiple, unless its like podcast format, so just going to be posting a matchup breakdown instead.

How do they matchup? - Andre Petroski vs Nick Maximov
Maximov vs Petroski reminds me of Maximovs fight vs Brundage.
They are both very similar fighters, they both like single legs, double legs, they are
both mostly position over submission type of fighters and they both got a good mix of
different submissions and they both make sure to land punches to stay active.
Maximov however has a huge cardio edge, he is relentless while Petroski has a bit
of quit in him. Petroski likely has the heavier hands but he throws them in such a
sloppy way, petroski likes his overhand left, and he likes to go for double legs by
level changing and rushing forward, while Maximov loves being deep on single legs.
Maximov also has good kicks while Petroski very rarely will throw kicks though he
does have a body kick but overall its all quite sloppy. Maximov has good fast kicks,
good hand speed and he can crack. Petroski only really has power due to his
physique, and he is wide open when he throws, as he overloads on his punches. I
expect this fight to be one where both fighters will look to take each other down and
get top control, go for submissions. Petroski has said that he wants to take Maximov
down and finish him early, but if he goes hard early and fails then he is in for a rough
night. Petroski hasn't really faced anyone good, when he did face someone decent in
Jefferey he got finished. In tha fight Petroski took down Jeffery a lot but Jeffery kept
getting up, and then he was able to smash Petroski as Petroski was gassing.
Maximov, even though he has decent hands, will likely still do what he does best and
try to get the better of Petroski on the ground, I could see a RNC by Maximov, I
could also see a decision. We sometimes see when two grapplers face each other
that it then turns into a standup fight like with Jandiroba vs Dern, and Jandiroba vs
Ribas, and Colby vs Usman 1. However I think in this fight both fighters will take
each other down, and after round 1 Petroski may gas hard. We got a relentless guy
in Maximov who fights through fatigue well and who is incredibly active and game vs
a guy who has quit in him. This may mean we could see a finish.
I lined this fight about -300 for Maximov before I went into tape and saw the odds, I
figured they´d line Maximov as quite a big fav due to him having looked so good
recently while Petroski has struggled with two shitty fighters in Hu and Gillmore who
both are awful.
Now he faces Maximov who I think is at least 2 levels above, and I don't see how
Petroski is going to finish Maximov like he says he will, he's not some dangerous
guillotine guy, and he is quite slow overall, sure Maximov dives for single legs quite
deep, but I don't think Petroski can just smash him either.

Win by decision: I think Maximov either grinds him to a dominant decision out landing him and controlling him while Petroski possibly defends the few RNC attempts that we may see.

Win by finish: I could see Maximov finishing Petroski just because we got such a game fighter vs a quitter. And this is a step down for Maximov. I feel like Petroski just hasn't beaten anyone good, he's only faced awful fighters. I do think the decision is more likely as Maximov may not wanna take too much chances, but if Petroski quits we could see a stoppage as Maximov is able to deliver some solid GnP when he wants to, but if Petroski doesn't quit I think this sees the scorecards.

Lose by decision: This is really hard to see, maybe if Maximov gets a cut or something is wrong with him, or just can't deal with the strength of Petroski but I doubt it as he dealt fine with Cota´s strength.

Lose by finish: Maybe Petroski can get the sub in round 1, if not in round 1 then I don't see it happening. Still I find it very unlikely, Petroski has talked a lot in interviews about wanting to become the first fighter to finish Nick Maximov but I just don't see it happening. Very unlikely.

How do they matchup? - Tatusuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario


Taira vs Candelario is an interesting matchup. One guy is undefeated, and has faced mostly tomato cans who can't defend a RNC. Taira has often had a large sizeable edge over his opponents, and this time it doesn't seem like he will have that size edge. He has said that he wants to finish Carlos in round 3 which I found interesting. He usually doesn't do much, he has pretty decent low kicks, but he mostly wants to wait for his opponents to attack so he can side step, go for a check hook or try to get the back of his opponents. He odes have a good body triangle when he is able to lock with his legs when he has his opponents down, and his back control is quite decent and so is his RNC. Carlos is a bit of a mix, he can do a bit of everything but he doesn't seem to have much power in his hands, he does land a lot of punches though but it doesn't seem to do much damage. I could easily see Taira getting the neck of Carlos and getting a RNC, however Carlos is by far the best opponent Taira has ever fought I think, and as much shit as Victor get, he isn't all that bad and Carlos deserved that W against him in the DWCS fight.


Its a hard to predict matchup, the odds doesn't quite make sense to me here but im not overly eager to rush in to bet Carlos. It could be the odds are way off, it could also be they are spot on or not even wide enough, its one of those fights where i don't feel i got a reado n how carlos will approach this. If I could trust he´d defend well, fight smart and not leave himself wide open i´d be all over him as an underdog, but Taira having trained in the US for a while now, gives me some concerns, and this could be a fight Taira passes with flying colours…if Taira does win straight away then watch out as his hype will likely explode and we can get a very nice fade spot next time.


I think this will be a bit of a boring fight, either we will see Taira get the RNC or we will likely see Carlos win some decisions victory. I´d definitely not be betting Taira at these odds around -250 though, that feels like it can only go wrong when there are some unknowns with this fight.


I feel like this could be a great underdog fight, and I´m leaning it makes sense to bet Carlos here. The over is also quite nice, and I think thats because its expected that Taira just smokes Carlos, but i don't think it will be that easy. If it does go long then Carlos has much better chances to win, so it could make sense to bet him.


I´m gonna go with Carlos for the upset with a decision victory, i do think the odds have been influenced by the DWCS loss that Carlos didn't deserve. But I´m not rushing to bet this fight.

Win by decision: I could see Carlos grinding his way to a decision outlanding and outstriking Taira, some decent clinch work, though we haven´t seen too much Clinch work from Taira so hard to know how good he is in the clinch. We could also see some ground control time, overall i think it´ll be a fairly boring fight with Carlos just being the more active fighter


WIn by finish: I doubt Carlos will finish Taira, but maybe some fatigued Taira could lose to Carlos with some GnP, i do think its overall quite unlikely, Taira has to fall to pieces here.


Lose by decision: Taira having back control could secure him the dec here.


Lose by finish: Taira getting the RNC, even early is live, and I could definitely see that happening, Carlos rushing in, Taira slips and takes his back and gets the choke…it´d not be unehard of, we have seen many guys level up once they get to the UFC. Maybe Taira will show us he is his price tag worthy.
 
Let me assume those predictors on YT that are in for nick maximov is because of the diaz narrative right?

I remember the fight between maximov and Punahele Soriano. There was something that was odd and off about that fight when Soriano was taken down by Maximov.

He had no strong TD defense.

This notion that Andre Petroski could likely gas out is possible but remember what happened last week with those fighters that some claimed they had gas tank issues?
they performed well and had won their fights.

Still upset over those who had been predicting Rose to win while doubting the underdog. I am going to be looking at differently for this week.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Just watched taira/fukuda

fukuda kind of sucks. He didn’t even know how to properly lock down the leg from his half guard, leading to him giving up side control and mount.

He gets mounted again at the end of the fight and ends up falling right into a triangle. He has no idea how to defend said triangle and he proceeds to throw body punches further taxing his oxygen and then taps.

This is the guy taira won the belt from? Lol

taira looks like he just overpowers guys that he’s bigger and more athletic than to get his takedowns

yuto sekiguchi, another guy who looks pretty mediocre on the ground. Couldn’t properly lock down the leg from half guard and was pretty much mounted at will because he doesn’t understand what a knee shield is, just like the other bum fukuda

to his credit taira has good top pressure and hips which allows him to do pretty much whatever he wants with these amateur grapplers
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Most of Tairas comp are cans or fossils. His line is def wide IMO. He's a great back taker with good top pressure but he isn't good at much else. Limited like most Japanese fighters.
 
So far I like

Rakic ML
Hadley ML
Davey Smolka U2.5
Ion Spann U1.5 and U2.5
Chookagian decision

I don't think Candelario is good but I'll prob sprinkle his ML too. If he can limit scrambles and keep it standing I can see him winning a decision in a mid fight.
 
BigSteve said:
no 2c this week but me and @FimbulFightPicks jumping on a live stream in about 30 min or so and doing a full UFC card breakdown. It will be live on his channel 'FimbulFightPicks' , jump on and rip into us if you want :)
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10 minutes in, the buffering is pretty bad at first. Seems to be improving
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Just watched taira/fukuda

fukuda kind of sucks. He didn’t even know how to properly lock down the leg from his half guard, leading to him giving up side control and mount.

yuto sekiguchi, another guy who looks pretty mediocre on the ground. Couldn’t properly lock down the leg from half guard and was pretty much mounted at will because he doesn’t understand what a knee shield is, just like the other bum fukuda

to his credit taira has good top pressure and hips which allows him to do pretty much whatever he wants with these amateur grapplers
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I'm going to suggest to you that your conception of what skill is from half guard, and what skill actually is, are very different things.

Fukuda is not a remotely incompetent grappler.
 
EndlessCritic said:
I'm going to suggest to you that your conception of what skill is from half guard, and what skill actually is, are very different things.

Fukuda is not a remotely incompetent grappler.
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so putting your foot on the back of someones calf is going to keep them from passing? Constantly opening up your figure four to make minor adjustments is high level stuff?

break it down for me bruh, I just started watching mma this year
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
so putting your foot on the back of someones calf is going to keep them from passing? Constantly opening up your figure four to make minor adjustments is high level stuff?

break it down for me bruh, I just started watching mma this year
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1. I do not play enough half butterfly to say whether the position is absolutely wrong.

2. I can say comfortably from the footage that Fukuda is a very well trained grappler, and stepping on his opponent's calf to assist the butterfly hook appears to be something he likes to do. He didn't invent that on the fly. Just because something is uncommon does not mean it is wrong.

3. From reviewing the footage, it appears Fukuda gets his guard passed because he voluntarily lets go of his stomping foot to attempt to sweep Taira. In order to execute the sweep he was going for, he had to release it so that he could generate power by driving off the floor, as Danaher explains here:



Watch very closely as Fukuda's left foot travels underneath his right butterfly hook in an attempt to execute this. He still has connection with the butterfly hook while he is doing this. It is in this moment that he is passed.

 
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