ufc fight night 127

The big question for me in Werdum/Volkov fight is the TDD of the russian and will Werdum even try to take this to the ground?
Fabricio has realized only 3 TDs in his last 5 fights and the one that i remember (vs Harris) was sooo slow and sloppy. He prefered to strike with Tybura, Overeem and Browne but with Volkov he will have more of a reach disadvantage then any of those fights. And i think Volkov can outstrike Werdum easily. I put 1u to Volkov for now but i am still not very sure what to expect from this fight.
 
I dont like the underdogs love on this forum but I have to admit that Volkov and Jan are nice dogs
 
Wiktoruspro said:
naaah man, I doubt that. But 0.5 u isnt much so good luck
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I'm not saying it's a lock. I just think 67 (Like 1.3% implied) is a good price for something I'd rate at like 5%.

Volkov champion prettymuch requires him to beat Werdum, winner of Stipe-Cormier defending this year, Blaydes not looking insanely good against Reem, no Lesnar return. So I'm prettymuch getting a +6600 on Volkov > Werdum (+190), Volkov > Stipe/Cormier (I'd imagine like +250/+150) and those other ducks lining up.

I'd get +915 on parlaying Volkov to win the 2 championship fights. So I'm essentially taking a bet at +650 on the other things not happening, and it puts me in a position with plenty of space to hedge with.

northsofia said:
The big question for me in Werdum/Volkov fight is the TDD of the russian and will Werdum even try to take this to the ground?
Fabricio has realized only 3 TDs in his last 5 fights and the one that i remember (vs Harris) was sooo slow and sloppy. He prefered to strike with Tybura, Overeem and Browne but with Volkov he will have more of a reach disadvantage then any of those fights. And i think Volkov can outstrike Werdum easily. I put 1u to Volkov for now but i am still not very sure what to expect from this fight.
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Yeah. I was there live for Werdum-Tybura. Werdum's definitely an above-average striker, but his inexplicable decision to not take it to the ground against dudes like Browne and Tybura (It's not like Werdum can't wrestle) and Volkov having a huge amount of length on him makes me feel like we've got a decent shot of a Volk dec.

I do not rate him at +190, though. I was kinda anticipating +300~. Looking for Volkov Dec +850 or so, ideally.
 
Werdum did attempt, and succeed with, takedowns against Tybura. I don't think that he just decided to keep it standing for the majority of the fight. Tybura is a way better grappler than Volkov and pretty difficult to control on the ground...I think that Werdum will have an easier time getting the fight to the ground here, and once it gets there Volkov is in trouble.

But I do agree about some points being made about Volkov and might play his decision line small.
 
iGnP said:
My responses in yellow in your quoted response^^^^
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Yeah I don't disagree with any of that really. But you still have a lot of guys who are unknowns who can put online books "on the chase", scrambling to cover their exposure. Because they aren't limited (yet anyway) they hit openers big, and the books (like you said) start dropping the lines. But at that point they are chasing that $ on fights that don't get a lot of action to begin with.

Look at it this way: I really, really doubt Kalikas has a day job. I don't think he's gonna hand me my coffee this morning at the Dunkin drive through, nor do I think he's doing corporate tax returns for Amazon. In other words, he's paid to be as knowledgeable as possible in this one specific area. Thinking he wouldn't keep tabs on info like what is posted in here seems silly to me. This is the most visited MMA forum on the planet, and this sub forum is literally called "MMA betting forum". How much influence does it have is certainly up for debate. I'd generally be with you in that it's somewhat negligible. But I have to think if Nick K is doing his due diligence he's checking up on this and other similar mediums to glean info. And using that info when he's setting lines.
 
I hit Volkov's openers hard at 3.2 thinking about Overeem fight, but rewatching Tybura fight makes me hesitate. Werdum's confidence was on point and he took those headkicks well. But could it be, that he has a weak chin and thick skull, so the equation of rangy opponent with good straight punches could make him hesitate more? Also trying to deter Werdum with oblique kick is not necessarily the best strategy from Tybura. I think he's way more spooked by having his chin tested that busting a knee.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah I don't disagree with any of that really. But you still have a lot of guys who are unknowns who can put online books "on the chase", scrambling to cover their exposure. Because they aren't limited (yet anyway) they hit openers big, and the books (like you said) start dropping the lines. But at that point they are chasing that $ on fights that don't get a lot of action to begin with.

Look at it this way: I really, really doubt Kalikas has a day job. I don't think he's gonna hand me my coffee this morning at the Dunkin drive through, nor do I think he's doing corporate tax returns for Amazon. In other words, he's paid to be as knowledgeable as possible in this one specific area. Thinking he wouldn't keep tabs on info like what is posted in here seems silly to me. This is the most visited MMA forum on the planet, and this sub forum is literally called "MMA betting forum". How much influence does it have is certainly up for debate. I'd generally be with you in that it's somewhat negligible. But I have to think if Nick K is doing his due diligence he's checking up on this and other similar mediums to glean info. And using that info when he's setting lines.
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Prettymuch. We've got guys with solid ROIs and track records in here, and quite a few of us manage to keep up-to-date on a ton of betting forums/podcasts without it being our main source of income. He's probably not skulking around treating our shitposting as gospel, but getting a feel for opinions in this sort of thread would be a good way of tracking public sentiment that goes beyond the numbers.
 
northsofia said:
. I put 1u to Volkov for now but i am still not very sure what to expect from this fight.
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me neither but +200 when one fighter has a very clear, feasible path to victory feels like a no brainer.
 
Don't put a lot of credits on Tybura either. It's not like Werdum fought the goat. Tybura did not do great vs Lewis either. And he did not look impressive vs Arlovski...
Now not that Volkov fought world beaters..
 
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All aboard the Volkov train.
 
mkess101 said:
In other words, he's paid to be as knowledgeable as possible in this one specific area. Thinking he wouldn't keep tabs on info like what is posted in here seems silly to me. This is the most visited MMA forum on the planet, and this sub forum is literally called "MMA betting forum". How much influence does it have is certainly up for debate. I'd generally be with you in that it's somewhat negligible. But I have to think if Nick K is doing his due diligence he's checking up on this and other similar mediums to glean info. And using that info when he's setting lines.
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PM me if you wanna continue talking, I dont wanna derail the thread more
 
iGnP said:
PM me if you wanna continue talking, I dont wanna derail the thread more
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Will do. It's an interesting discussion but you're right. This thread not the place.
 
Wedum/Volkov odds seem about right to me unfortunately...
 
I don’t see the love for Volkov. His beatings of Roy and Struve and supposed to impress me? I don’t think he’s a better striker than Werdum to begin with...
 
I am not feeling the Volkov love either. He lost to Tim Johnson just over a year ago, Roy is beyond faded and was essentially a punching bag and Struve is well, Struve. Werdum has a competetive striking match with Overeerm, pretty much tooled Tybura and Browne and has his ground game in the back pocket.
 
iGnP said:
I don’t see the love for Volkov. His beatings of Roy and Struve and supposed to impress me? I don’t think he’s a better striker than Werdum to begin with...
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Agree. But -210 for Doom...don't lovee that either. Books have it right...which sucks.
 
Stunna77 said:
I am not feeling the Volkov love either. He lost to Tim Johnson just over a year ago, Roy is beyond faded and was essentially a punching bag and Struve is well, Struve. Werdum has a competetive striking match with Overeerm, pretty much tooled Tybura and Browne and has his ground game in the back pocket.
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He is the underdog thats why he is SO beloved ;)
 
mkess101 said:
Agree. But -210 for Doom...don't lovee that either. Books have it right...which sucks.
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Idk, Werdum seems to constantly be underrated by the books. Go back and look at what he’s opened at in recent fights, he’s probably been the right side in every fight, except maybe the Overeem fight. I might throw a unit or two on Werdum at these odds soon
 
iGnP said:
Idk, Werdum seems to constantly be underrated by the books. Go back and look at what he’s opened at in recent fights, he’s probably been the right side in every fight, except maybe the Overeem fight. I might throw a unit or two on Werdum at these odds soon
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Maybe it's just paying over -200 at HW that I hate. IDK. I need to look around fight more I think.
 
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