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- Dec 14, 2016
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I mean, that's ridiculous obviously in a high variance sport where one weird strike can change things. And it's not like Strickland has zero grappling.
That said...no doubt this is a tailor made matchup for Izzy. The lopsided odds are justified, it would take something a bit crazy for him to lose imo.
Yeah thanks, it is not an EASY fight, there's no EASY fights, but definitely the EASIEST fight of Izzy's career.
Pretty ridiculous to say that Strickland has 0,01% chance, of course he has a lot higher chance than that. Even if you believe Izzy to be the far superior fighter. Izzy could break his hand in the fight, he could snap a leg on a checked leg kick. Perhaps he gets stomach sick, but still chose to fight and gasses hard in the 2nd round. Perhaps we have misread the situation and Stricklands wrestling is better than expected and he gets takedowns in all rounds.
Odds suggest 87% likelihood that Izzy wins, I personally think those odds are pretty justified... but don't throw out stupid numbers. This is MMA and lots of things can happen.
Well, I don't think you want to, nor dare to bet on a fighter getting a freak injury or stomach sick... come on, we're talking FIGHTING right now. Skills wise, experience wise.
I would favor Strickland if they were fighting in the smaller octagon at the UFC apex. Adesanya doesn’t throw enough volume to separate himself and cleanly win rounds in close quarters. That’s one of the reasons, among others, that he lost two of the first three rounds on every judges scorecard to Jan Blachowicz and those were striking only rounds.
Adesanya has very good footwork so when he is fighting in the bigger octagon, with space to work, his opponents struggle to land. They cannot confine him to one area and because of this are left following him as he picks at them from a distance. If Strickland had previously demonstrated the footwork necessary to cut off the bigger cage, which he definitely has not, this would be a close fight.
If Strickland could compromise Adesanya’s movement early with leg kicks, which Poatan appeared close to achieving in their last fight, it would force Adesanya to fight at Strickland’s preferred range. Strickland doesn’t normally utilize leg kicks so this is wishful thinking but there are definitely ways Sean could hypothetically make it a close fight.
I expect Adesanya to win, likely by decision, but playing him at -650 is a bad beat waiting to happen.
You could go with a Adesanya TKO finish as well, Strickland is getting outmatched, the only reason he's fighting for a title is because South African boy got injured lol...