UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

[Kazda1]

I'm seeing Max ~ +170 in town right now.......Does anyone think I can get +180 or better? I've patiently waited this one out and may wait longer.

I love Volk, but after winning 21 straight fights, I find it hard to think he's capable of beating Holloway 3 times in a row during that stretch. For that reason alone, I don't really see any reason to take a chance on going against Max here.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'm seeing Max ~ +170 in town right now.......Does anyone think I can get +180 or better? I've patiently waited this one out and may wait longer.

I love Volk, but after winning 21 straight fights, I find it hard to think he's capable of beating Holloway 3 times in a row during that stretch. For that reason alone, I don't really see any reason to take a chance on going against Max here.

You can also flip that and say that you love Max, but you find it hard to think he's capable of beating Alex after losing to him twice in a row.

You're obviously going to bet Max no matter what, but there's a good chance you'll be one of those people holding a losing ticket and saying that the odds were too good to pass up, or that the value was there, etc. and Alex will then be 3-0 over Max.

Hopefully you're not one of those people who thinks their first fight was close, and that Max "won" the second fight. Some weird people online have been twisting the narrative that their first fight was close, when it wasn't. Their second fight was close, but most of the people who thought Max won were the ones who bet on him -- I wanted Max to win because I had a bet on him, but I clearly saw him lose the second fight after clearly winning the first two rounds and then giving the fight away during the next three rounds in a row (I couldn't believe it at the time).

 

[benebox]

I love Volk, but after winning 21 straight fights, I find it hard to think he's capable of beating Holloway 3 times in a row during that stretch. For that reason alone, I don't really see any reason to take a chance on going against Max here.

You're obviously going to bet Max no matter what, but there's a good chance you'll be one of those people holding a losing ticket and saying that the odds were too good to pass up, or that the value was there, etc. and Alex will then be 3-0 over Max.

But the odds are too good to pass up

 

[Thesnake101]

regretting my money on gabe green, i think ian is going to strike him from outside range to a decision .

The one thing I don't like about Garry from what I've seen so far from him in the UFC is how he deals with pressure. Seems like he freezes up at times trying to find the perfect shot which leads to him getting caught with stuff he really shouldn't be getting hit by.

Green is just a brute force guy, so, as with most of his fights, it'll come down to whether his chin can withstand Ian's power or not. If it can, I think he drowns out Garry.

 

[joenewbie]

Anyone know much about Caesar's sportsbooks? I haven't made any MMA bets in one in forever. There's one not that far away from me in a bordering state and the poker bad beat jackpot is nuts right now, like $600k. I think I'm gonna drive down Sat and play for a bit and see if I can get lucky and hit that bad boy. I'm gonna make some wagers on this card too, was just wondering about the book there. Does Caesar's let you parlay props? The MGM books don't. Not a big deal if they don't, just wondering because there's a couple props at + odds I really like and I'm gonna bet them separately but would like to toss in a little hail mary parlay with them and see about hitting a big ass payout.

Prop I like bets by far is O'Malley dec at +200. (It's as low as +150 it looks like in some spots but +200 at Caesar's right now). Munhoz is still durable as hell, never been finished. He's older and has more mileage yeah but hasn't shown signs that he's ready to be put away imo. O'Malley is a good finisher but does it organically and doesn't chase or overcommit. Against less durable guys the volume just breaks them usually. Don't see that here. I see Sugar just picking Pedro apart from the outside most of the fight similar to what's happened in all of his recent losses.

My onlly thoughts on Caesar's, at least from a few years ago, is that the odds aren't very good. You can find better lines other places so when I went to Nevada a lot I would walk to a different casino. I don't know about the particular rules.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The one thing I don't like about Garry from what I've seen so far from him in the UFC is how he deals with pressure. Seems like he freezes up at times trying to find the perfect shot which leads to him getting caught with stuff he really shouldn't be getting hit by.

Green is just a brute force guy, so, as with most of his fights, it'll come down to whether his chin can withstand Ian's power or not. If it can, I think he drowns out Garry.

i have gabe in a ko parlay , ian in one decision, its how i feel about the fight

 

[rev0lver]

Do not understand the Turner bettors at all. Yes he's looked good recently, and he has a good frame + skillset, but he's only really won in the lower tiers of the UFC. Riddell is a veteran kickboxer who trains at CK with Volk and the like. He's looked like an absolute beast even with his lack of finishes. Not holding the Fiziev loss against him too hard here, and that was a competitive fight. Turner is still developing while Riddell's looked ready to compete in the top 10 since he got in the UFC... don't understand how you bet against him here when he's evens or a dog.

Maybe I'm somehow biased here too, but I genuinely think people are looking at the line and overthinking that Turner is better than he is here

 

[Stat_Collector]

Do not understand the Turner bettors at all. Yes he's looked good recently, and he has a good frame + skillset, but he's only really won in the lower tiers of the UFC. Riddell is a veteran kickboxer who trains at CK with Volk and the like. He's looked like an absolute beast even with his lack of finishes. Not holding the Fiziev loss against him too hard here, and that was a competitive fight. Turner is still developing while Riddell's looked ready to compete in the top 10 since he got in the UFC... don't understand how you bet against him here when he's evens or a dog.

Maybe I'm somehow biased here too, but I genuinely think people are looking at the line and overthinking that Turner is better than he is here

turner is a more complete fighter, Riddel is a solid striker, but i just get the sense that Turner is on a path. like his focus and fire is there. its kind of like what Khabib said about Volk .

 

[Thesnake101]

Do not understand the Turner bettors at all. Yes he's looked good recently, and he has a good frame + skillset, but he's only really won in the lower tiers of the UFC. Riddell is a veteran kickboxer who trains at CK with Volk and the like. He's looked like an absolute beast even with his lack of finishes. Not holding the Fiziev loss against him too hard here, and that was a competitive fight. Turner is still developing while Riddell's looked ready to compete in the top 10 since he got in the UFC... don't understand how you bet against him here when he's evens or a dog.

Maybe I'm somehow biased here too, but I genuinely think people are looking at the line and overthinking that Turner is better than he is here

I'm in the same boat, and I'm someone who's been backing Turner most of his fights since I saw him KO Gabe Green in Bellator years back.

He's a very slick guy, but I always get the feeling someone with more solid fundamentals can pick him apart on the feet, which is where Riddell comes in.

What throws a wrench in that perspective is the grappling he's acquired over the years, don't know Brad can overcome that, but I'm still taking him since he did a good job shutting that down in his previous fights.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Gonna be playing a yolo Izzy by sub +1400. He's been talking about submissions and grappling more. Trains with good BJJ guys and I think he really wants a sub. I can see a club and sub here probably RNC.

 

[Bakayoko]

I'm in the same boat, and I'm someone who's been backing Turner most of his fights since I saw him KO Gabe Green in Bellator years back.

He's a very slick guy, but I always get the feeling someone with more solid fundamentals can pick him apart on the feet, which is where Riddell comes in.

What throws a wrench in that perspective is the grappling he's acquired over the years, don't know Brad can overcome that, but I'm still taking him since he did a good job shutting that down in his previous fights.

.
Yeah I'm with you,I played Brad and added when the odds went up,in short I believe he'll deal ok with all grappling atempts and be more tehnical on the feet plus he has the experience,cardio and IQ advantage.

 

[Kazda1]

You can also flip that and say that you love Max, but you find it hard to think he's capable of beating Alex after losing to him twice in a row.

You're obviously going to bet Max no matter what, but there's a good chance you'll be one of those people holding a losing ticket and saying that the odds were too good to pass up, or that the value was there, etc. and Alex will then be 3-0 over Max.

Hopefully you're not one of those people who thinks their first fight was close, and that Max "won" the second fight. Some weird people online have been twisting the narrative that their first fight was close, when it wasn't. Their second fight was close, but most of the people who thought Max won were the ones who bet on him -- I wanted Max to win because I had a bet on him, but I clearly saw him lose the second fight after clearly winning the first two rounds and then giving the fight away during the next three rounds in a row (I couldn't believe it at the time).

Yeah I know what you mean. Fair points on all sides. Just a gut feeling of mine...if I'm wrong I'm wrong but I'll take a stab on it. I'm passing time until football season and need to scratch that itch.

FWIW I had a bet on max at 245 and I was in attendance...he got dominated and I had a bet on Volk the second go round. I thought Volk won 3-2 but it was very close. Don't get me wrong, like I said, I love the guy but I think Max gets it tomorrow. I'll hold that L if I'm wrong though.

 

[Guld]

I'm glad I got my parlay in when I did. The odds for the favs keep climbing. I wonder if it will level off a bit by tomorrow, or if everyone will dump even more money after the weigh ins.

 

[The Disasters]

I'm glad I got my parlay in when I did. The odds for the favs keep climbing. I wonder if it will level off a bit by tomorrow, or if everyone will dump even more money after the weigh ins.

My experience has been that big chalk takes money closer to the card but not so much with small chalk.

 

[Guld]

My experience has been that big chalk takes money closer to the card but not so much with small chalk.

I still don't know my proper terminology for a lot of this haha.
Does "Big Chalk" mean stuff like Main Events and popular fighters/fights? Or is it just the size of the betting odds/favs?

 

[The Disasters]

I still don't know my proper terminology for a lot of this haha.
Does "Big Chalk" mean stuff like Main Events and popular fighters/fights? Or is it just the size of the betting odds/favs?

I'm talking price more than anything but yes, more popular event favorites also seem to get bet closer to the fights. What I meant by big chalk though is the -150 or bigger favorites. When it's in the -130ish range you'll often see the other side get bet because at around +110 it seems much easier to the bettors who first look at the card when they sit down to order it.

 

[rev0lver]

I'm in the same boat, and I'm someone who's been backing Turner most of his fights since I saw him KO Gabe Green in Bellator years back.

He's a very slick guy, but I always get the feeling someone with more solid fundamentals can pick him apart on the feet, which is where Riddell comes in.

What throws a wrench in that perspective is the grappling he's acquired over the years, don't know Brad can overcome that, but I'm still taking him since he did a good job shutting that down in his previous fights.

I'm not really that worried about the grappling here. I could see a situation where Turner finds a sub off a knockdown, but I don't think he's a strong enough wrestler to employ the typical takedown strategy and do better than others have done there.

Imo Riddell's a strong level above Turner's prior competition on the feet. Turner could surely get some shots in, but Riddell's tough, and it took a LOT for Fiziev to find the KO shot. I think Turner's striking defense isn't where it needs to be yet either, and Riddell hits hard despite his lack of UFC finishes.

 

[PuertoRican]

I need Adesanya to close out a parlay... FML

 

[sonhow]

Drakes bound to hit one of his big bets. Anytime soon now..
But if Izzy were to lose I wouldnt be surprised if he drops uneventful dec now with the way his last three have went.

 

[Slohog]

You can also flip that and say that you love Max, but you find it hard to think he's capable of beating Alex after losing to him twice in a row.

You're obviously going to bet Max no matter what, but there's a good chance you'll be one of those people holding a losing ticket and saying that the odds were too good to pass up, or that the value was there, etc. and Alex will then be 3-0 over Max.

Hopefully you're not one of those people who thinks their first fight was close, and that Max "won" the second fight. Some weird people online have been twisting the narrative that their first fight was close, when it wasn't. Their second fight was close, but most of the people who thought Max won were the ones who bet on him -- I wanted Max to win because I had a bet on him, but I clearly saw him lose the second fight after clearly winning the first two rounds and then giving the fight away during the next three rounds in a row (I couldn't believe it at the time).

Dont remember if I had a bet but I do love me some max. I though it was two clear rounds for max and then three rounds which Alex probably won. A lot like the Tsarykian fight the other week. If you get two clear ones and then make the rest competative I think you have a decent expected value given judgeing.

Not saying he won, just saying that if you got +180 and watched the fight you would probably expect make money if 10 random trios of judges gave a result each.