UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

regretting my money on gabe green, i think ian is going to strike him from outside range to a decision .
 
Stat_Collector said:
regretting my money on gabe green, i think ian is going to strike him from outside range to a decision .
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That was my initial read on it as well. I'll do some tape watching and keep an eye on the odds, but I think Ian picking him apart from range is the most likely outcome.
 
Guld said:
That was my initial read on it as well. I'll do some tape watching and keep an eye on the odds, but I think Ian picking him apart from range is the most likely outcome.
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his moves are more fluid than i remembered. Seeing him throw a solid right, a stiff jab, usually i bet on guys like this. Training in sanford with wonderboy, we'll see, but its likely he points gabe.
Hellowhosthat said:
Yeah I think Green looked good against Lainesse because Lainesse went all out and gassed. Garry isn't going to do that.
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Lainesse even dropped him, got me shook.
 
Russ82 said:
Volk could leg kick his way to a decision and nothing anyone can do bout it
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magpie878 said:
Maybe by round 3 he'll figure out it's spelled "past"
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I'm just playing,I think it goes to DEC, though the over is juiced so I'll pass.But the value is mos def on Max,the second fight was close so he should be more like 2,20-2,30 not 2,75.
The Riddel line screams value to me the most,I don't know who's pumping Turner to get Brad to 2,30,crazy.Huge recency bias,not a year ago people were going hard on Medic to KO Turner.
I mean I like Turner,but he isn't some grappling force,I think Brad will be able to handle it.Brad is a much better tehnician on the feet and I think it will show,he should be like 1,50-1,60 favorite.
 
Anyone know much about Caesar's sportsbooks? I haven't made any MMA bets in one in forever. There's one not that far away from me in a bordering state and the poker bad beat jackpot is nuts right now, like $600k. I think I'm gonna drive down Sat and play for a bit and see if I can get lucky and hit that bad boy. I'm gonna make some wagers on this card too, was just wondering about the book there. Does Caesar's let you parlay props? The MGM books don't. Not a big deal if they don't, just wondering because there's a couple props at + odds I really like and I'm gonna bet them separately but would like to toss in a little hail mary parlay with them and see about hitting a big ass payout.

Prop I like bets by far is O'Malley dec at +200. (It's as low as +150 it looks like in some spots but +200 at Caesar's right now). Munhoz is still durable as hell, never been finished. He's older and has more mileage yeah but hasn't shown signs that he's ready to be put away imo. O'Malley is a good finisher but does it organically and doesn't chase or overcommit. Against less durable guys the volume just breaks them usually. Don't see that here. I see Sugar just picking Pedro apart from the outside most of the fight similar to what's happened in all of his recent losses.
 
Don't know a huge amount about Du Plessis but I'm hoping Tavares keeps drifting odds wise so I can get on him, probably by decision.

Feel like his takedown defence is good enough to avoid spending any prolonged time on the ground. His stand up is serviceable, he doesn't tend to finish guys but he throws a decent amount of volume and can generally take a shot well and does well in the clinch.

I feel like for the most part he plays that role of gatekeeper well. He's not really bad in any particular area, puts things together well and only tends to lose to contenders/elite fighters.

Don't know too much about his opponent mind but I'd be very surprised if Tavares got subbed, I think his defensive grappling is solid. He's in that Team Quest/Xtreme Couture mould of tough to take down and keep down, especially if he has his back to the cage.

Main concern would be him getting knocked out, but generally his chin isn't too bad and I think his output could see him winning a decision - lazy wiki capping but maybe a 3rd round KO is possible for him too from accumulation of he can tire out Du Plessis who it looks like has never been to a decision.

Again wiki capping but I also think Tavares experience helps him here. Tavares is probably the best guy Du Plessis has faced whereas Tavares has been in there (with varying degrees of success) against most of the elite at MW - I doubt he's going to see anything he's not seen in the last 10 years really.
 
Dooze said:
Don't know a huge amount about Du Plessis but I'm hoping Tavares keeps drifting odds wise so I can get on him, probably by decision.

Feel like his takedown defence is good enough to avoid spending any prolonged time on the ground. His stand up is serviceable, he doesn't tend to finish guys but he throws a decent amount of volume and can generally take a shot well and does well in the clinch.

I feel like for the most part he plays that role of gatekeeper well. He's not really bad in any particular area, puts things together well and only tends to lose to contenders/elite fighters.

Don't know too much about his opponent mind but I'd be very surprised if Tavares got subbed, I think his defensive grappling is solid. He's in that Team Quest/Xtreme Couture mould of tough to take down and keep down, especially if he has his back to the cage.

Main concern would be him getting knocked out, but generally his chin isn't too bad and I think his output could see him winning a decision - lazy wiki capping but maybe a 3rd round KO is possible for him too from accumulation of he can tire out Du Plessis who it looks like has never been to a decision.

Again wiki capping but I also think Tavares experience helps him here. Tavares is probably the best guy Du Plessis has faced whereas Tavares has been in there (with varying degrees of success) against most of the elite at MW - I doubt he's going to see anything he's not seen in the last 10 years really.
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Not sure if Tavares is better than Soldic was (Soldic is for sure better than him now, but might have been then too).
 


I don't think he is trolling either, I had a unit on Strickland that I'm now considering cashing out.
 
@Stat_Collector
Last Week my one bet with three bets didn't go so well and only because i went with the favorites.

With such heavy fight cards like these i would be very cautious.

You can bet your 10$ that there would be underdogs winning.
Some predictors and gurus are sleeping on sean strickland for example.

Alex Pereira vs Sean strickland.

Sean Strickland is a fighter i would trust more on this fight card due to his UFC experience over someone whose slightly older and only has two wins so far.

So also Alex Pereira still a bit Green in the UFC so far.
I haven't still seen that they has any wrestling?
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
@Stat_Collector
Last Week my one bet with three bets didn't go so well and only because i went with the favorites.

With such heavy fight cards like these i would be very cautious.

You can bet your 10$ that there would be underdogs winning.
Some predictors and gurus are sleeping on sean strickland for example.

Alex Pereira vs Sean strickland.

Sean Strickland is a fighter i would trust more on this fight card due to his UFC experience over someone whose slightly older and only has two wins so far.

So also still a bit Green in the UFC so far.
I haven't still seen that they has any wrestling?
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I think he is the value side here, his mma experience is superior. i have him in a few parlays , mma isn't kick boxing, and Alex got hit so much by Bruno. Its a myth that mma guys cant stand with kick boxers, maybe not under kick boxing rules but mma is more than just striking.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I think he is the value side here, his mma experience is superior. i have him in a few parlays , mma isn't kick boxing, and Alex got hit so much by Bruno. Its a myth that mma guys cant stand with kick boxers, maybe not under kick boxing rules but mma is more than just striking.
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Bruno came very close on giving him his first loss at the UFC level.
That fight was good.

But with Sean Strickland its going to be a good match up.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Bruno came very close on giving him his first loss at the UFC level.
That fight was good.

But with Sean Strickland its going to be a good match up.
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To be fair , Bruno probably gives Strickland a very tough fight ….

Jack Hermanson went to a split decision with Strickland ….. I think Bruno’s better then jack …
 
StewDogg11 said:
But the part they didn’t show he said he’d wrestle.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2022/6/...y-by-the-ufc-to-get-alex-pereira-a-title-shot
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Ok thanks, I was getting a little worried there.

GoldenWolf87 said:
You are on him to? nice..I have him and with adesanya three bets only.
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Yeah, have to at even money. It takes time for Kick boxers to adapt to MMA striking, let alone the grappling aspect. I expect Strickland to come in with a grappling heavy game plan and win a boring UD.
 
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